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weather eater

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weather eater last won the day on November 23 2012

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  1. Can't see why anyone should be surprised by the 06z the last two GFS runs have hinted at the vortex getting far enough north to allow this kind of more favourable elongated MLB to form. The question now is can we keep a level of support for this and will the inevitable changes over the next few days in its evolution benefit us. We need it as far north as possible, if it sinks then we wind up on the wrong side. Overall though this is a relatively subtle change as a MLB over or close to the UK has been the theme of the operationals for days , there has been no real sign of a return to Atlantic
  2. Some interesting output from the GFS 18z and 12z could of course be complete red herrings but very encouraging.
  3. Not a bad 12z GFS and a hint of the possibility of a shift in the vortex that may allow heights to build a bit more where we want them.
  4. I would say that we should do that all the time anyway Nick as they are always subject to much revision. But we can only really speculate on what's in front of us and that seems pretty clear to me and has done for days, by next weekend HP will be sitting over or close to the UK. We have one of those curious times when we are seeing lots of small changes for the first few days of Feb which will have a large impact in the hunt for snow but they all keep leading to that Azores high over or close to the UK by the weekend. The OPs seem pretty clear on that and the ensembles are their usual pin the
  5. All gone very sleety here, hardly crisp and fresh and even more like a horrible soggy mess. My message is simple if it can't snow properly then don't bother to try at all.
  6. Amazing because that's what the OPs have been showing in the main for days now, give me the OPs any day over the ensembles they are as much use as a marzipan crowbar most of the time.
  7. Well it does look like we will pick up an easterly feed for a while but rather like yesterday the method to get there keeps changing in detail. However, by the end of the week we still end up with the Azores high sitting just off the western approaches it seems almost set in stone that that will be the situation at the end of the week. Subsequently the shape orientation and proximity of that high will dictate our weather next weekend. In the mean time it's snowing hard here.
  8. It would appear to me that the upshot of every single run across the big three is no matter what route is taken to get there we end up with a large HP in the western approaches, all routes lead to the same place for us.
  9. Mushy speaks a lot of sense there but WIB I don't think so his prognosis was an end by the start of the week. The truth is the weather makes monkeys of us all, and as I said earlier a week is a long time in synoptic evolutions that's why we keep coming back. In truth if the day ever comes where the models get much better at predicting beyond a couple of days, say 5 or 7, then that will be the day when threads like this will die.
  10. At the moment I would say we do have good consensus from the models and that being. 1. Colder conditions will persist for another 7 days, give or take 2. The high will topple and end up over or just to our west 3. getting blocking in the right place for the type of easterly we want to see seems highly unlikely no matter how often the ensembles might point that way, This is not to say that during the week ahead there will not be an easterly component to our weather but nothing that involves HLB where we want it However we should also keep it in mind that a week is an awful long time in syn
  11. Yes let's not forget that last nights 18z was an absolute disaster of a run, operationals and ensembles swing like a key swapping party.
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