-
Posts
2,659 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by MKN
-
MattStoke its the hope that kills us And there is always one model that seems to enjoy giving us that hope. Personally I think other than high ground and the north of our region most of us are looking at transient period of snow. Between 6 and 10am. Temporary accumulations possible 1-5cms but quickly washed away by evening. For those a touch further North and on higher ground perhaps 10-15cms. Hills around Buxton I'd imagine 20-30cms.
-
Eskimo last time we had a decent amount of snow I got out at 830/9am to make sure i could take dog out and get some decent pics before it started to melt and become horrible. Think this is about the best we can hope for more often that not these days. The mild weather saves on the bills also so we don't need it staying around for to long.
-
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
MKN replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
sheikhy don't forget arome/arpege I believe show snow fall not what will settle. Could be significant differences particularly at lower levels. 2-5cms perhaps tops for the majority. 10-20 over 400m. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
MKN replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs looks to have nailed this more or less barring the fine detail. Thursday should see snow north mids northwards but turning to rain for most of England relatively quickly. Cold hanging on in Scotland. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
MKN replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Spah1 Given GFS has historically called marginal situations correctly more so than the other main models I would say it's not waffle. I've followed these charts for over 20 years and this sort of setup favours the GFS solution. Of course your own locality may sway your judgement on that particularly if your further North but for Leicestershire when the gfs has predicted rain or sleet with other models suggesting snow then I've found it's nearly always been rain we end up with. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
MKN replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs remaining consistent with snow mainly reserved for high ground across England and Wales. Snow for many in Scotland. Past history usually favours GFS in these type of scenarios at this range. Hopefully it's got this one wrong -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
MKN replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
nick sussex nick sussex In marginal situations similar to this the GFS has been out on its own numerous times and ended up being on the money. For that reason unless it comes on board soon I wouldn't be holding out for much if you live further south. -
Hopefully this week has acted as a learning curve to alot of a I assume fairly new followers of the various model outputs. In the UK away from Scotland, charts showing cold and snow at 120-200 odd hours away are just pure fantasy. Unless the charts which are showing cold and snow are within +48 to +72 they are far from reliable. It's one area that even after all the years of model development they simply are not that good at getting right. I Mentioned the same at the start of the week incase people assume I'm just saying it now. Anyway fingers crossed for one or two surprises and if not this week there's still a good 6 weeks left for another chance to come along.