MKN

andy_leics22 I said 4/5 days ago in the model output discussion that the gfs in my experience and for our area at least seems to be the one of the main models to get things right more often than not when it comes to these marginal events.

MattStoke its the hope that kills us And there is always one model that seems to enjoy giving us that hope. Personally I think other than high ground and the north of our region most of us are looking at transient period of snow. Between 6 and 10am. Temporary accumulations possible 1-5cms but quickly washed away by evening. For those a touch further North and on higher ground perhaps 10-15cms. Hills around Buxton I'd imagine 20-30cms.

sheikhy when's that out?

Don the difference the ecm shows 00z to 12z is if the low is slightly weaker than anticipated then the result is a slightly more southerly track but with precip amounts generally a bit lower also. It's a balancing act to get the perfect outcome.

sheikhy unless your west of Ireland and have gone from 28cms to 4 in one run

Eskimo last time we had a decent amount of snow I got out at 830/9am to make sure i could take dog out and get some decent pics before it started to melt and become horrible. Think this is about the best we can hope for more often that not these days. The mild weather saves on the bills also so we don't need it staying around for to long.

sheikhy don't forget arome/arpege I believe show snow fall not what will settle. Could be significant differences particularly at lower levels. 2-5cms perhaps tops for the majority. 10-20 over 400m.

MattStoke yea a definite small shift south on the gfs, 15/20 miles so not as much as arpege but if it's something that can trend that way over next 2/3 runs the midlands could end up being the prime spot come Thursday.

MattStoke icon and arpege 12z show a southwards shift. Hopefully gfs/ukmo and ECM follow suit.

MattStoke considerable shift northwards in that warning area. Surprised they didn't wait until later today to make that change. The majority of there model forecasts must suggest very little outside of that area. Even within it they talk about 2-5cms away from higher ground.

sheikhy 50 mile shift south from what the GFS shows on the 00z would probably make this the event of this winter season for all of us and would likely result in colder air hanging on longer in the days after. At this range that relatively small shift is not beyond the realms of possibility.

18z has moved back North a touch. Looking like a fairly transient affair for most of us from snow to rain but may be an interesting hour or two before it does at least.

Gfs looks to have nailed this more or less barring the fine detail. Thursday should see snow north mids northwards but turning to rain for most of England relatively quickly. Cold hanging on in Scotland.

Gfs Out to +54 and -5 850 temps are much further south. Hopefully this is a decent run.

MattStoke unusual that as further south east in Hinckley leics the metoffice showing all snow until midday.

Spah1 Given GFS has historically called marginal situations correctly more so than the other main models I would say it's not waffle. I've followed these charts for over 20 years and this sort of setup favours the GFS solution. Of course your own locality may sway your judgement on that particularly if your further North but for Leicestershire when the gfs has predicted rain or sleet with other models suggesting snow then I've found it's nearly always been rain we end up with.

Gfs remaining consistent with snow mainly reserved for high ground across England and Wales. Snow for many in Scotland. Past history usually favours GFS in these type of scenarios at this range. Hopefully it's got this one wrong

nick sussex nick sussex In marginal situations similar to this the GFS has been out on its own numerous times and ended up being on the money. For that reason unless it comes on board soon I wouldn't be holding out for much if you live further south.

Sleet/snow shower in Daventry for 5 minutes just now. Temp dived from 9c to 3c in no time at all.

Nope all over really for this week's chances. And looking at the model output any future opportunity be 10-14+ days away. At least we get the nicer summers

Them charts at +288 hours are as reliable as any other chart at that range. More or less pure guesswork.

Will be of rain though. Likewise it would be here if anything was to arrive until later this evening.

May not be looking like the best cold spell but some of us may get a few snow showers.

Commenting on the output as shown is fine, as you say it's a discussion about the model outputs but reading through alot of posts I think many people thought charts at 7+ days away were set in stone.

Hopefully this week has acted as a learning curve to alot of a I assume fairly new followers of the various model outputs. In the UK away from Scotland, charts showing cold and snow at 120-200 odd hours away are just pure fantasy. Unless the charts which are showing cold and snow are within +48 to +72 they are far from reliable. It's one area that even after all the years of model development they simply are not that good at getting right. I Mentioned the same at the start of the week incase people assume I'm just saying it now. Anyway fingers crossed for one or two surprises and if not this week there's still a good 6 weeks left for another chance to come along.