MKN

andy_leics22 I said 4/5 days ago in the model output discussion that the gfs in my experience and for our area at least seems to be the one of the main models to get things right more often than not when it comes to these marginal events.

MattStoke its the hope that kills us And there is always one model that seems to enjoy giving us that hope. Personally I think other than high ground and the north of our region most of us are looking at transient period of snow. Between 6 and 10am. Temporary accumulations possible 1-5cms but quickly washed away by evening. For those a touch further North and on higher ground perhaps 10-15cms. Hills around Buxton I'd imagine 20-30cms.

sheikhy when's that out?

Don the difference the ecm shows 00z to 12z is if the low is slightly weaker than anticipated then the result is a slightly more southerly track but with precip amounts generally a bit lower also. It's a balancing act to get the perfect outcome.

sheikhy unless your west of Ireland and have gone from 28cms to 4 in one run

Eskimo last time we had a decent amount of snow I got out at 830/9am to make sure i could take dog out and get some decent pics before it started to melt and become horrible. Think this is about the best we can hope for more often that not these days. The mild weather saves on the bills also so we don't need it staying around for to long.

sheikhy don't forget arome/arpege I believe show snow fall not what will settle. Could be significant differences particularly at lower levels. 2-5cms perhaps tops for the majority. 10-20 over 400m.

MattStoke yea a definite small shift south on the gfs, 15/20 miles so not as much as arpege but if it's something that can trend that way over next 2/3 runs the midlands could end up being the prime spot come Thursday.

MattStoke icon and arpege 12z show a southwards shift. Hopefully gfs/ukmo and ECM follow suit.

MattStoke considerable shift northwards in that warning area. Surprised they didn't wait until later today to make that change. The majority of there model forecasts must suggest very little outside of that area. Even within it they talk about 2-5cms away from higher ground.

sheikhy 50 mile shift south from what the GFS shows on the 00z would probably make this the event of this winter season for all of us and would likely result in colder air hanging on longer in the days after. At this range that relatively small shift is not beyond the realms of possibility.

18z has moved back North a touch. Looking like a fairly transient affair for most of us from snow to rain but may be an interesting hour or two before it does at least.

Gfs looks to have nailed this more or less barring the fine detail. Thursday should see snow north mids northwards but turning to rain for most of England relatively quickly. Cold hanging on in Scotland.

Gfs Out to +54 and -5 850 temps are much further south. Hopefully this is a decent run.

MattStoke unusual that as further south east in Hinckley leics the metoffice showing all snow until midday.