loadsa

heads up http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/heavy-snow-forecast-wales-temperatures-10731596

Bit of frost here this morning wall to wall sunshine now

Sorry to say this and it really hurts. Just arrived in my hotel in the Netherlands (work trip until tuesday night) and sat outside with a beer in a t shirt and 22degrees C.

Cracking site pan have bookmarked it. Any way returned from Tenby flurries off and on all the way home. Apart from near Bridgend when it was hammering down.

snowing in Caerphilly

Fergies latest comments Well, MOGREPS & EC EPS have remained in good broad agreement re a snowy breakdown (in repeated bouts) through first half of next week (with focus on central-southern-western districts) and thereafter a strong signal for W/SW unsettled regime to establish, albeit degree of cylonicity unclear. It would take a marked broadscale change to alter that story. Incidentally, UKMO have decided to dismiss GFS evolution into Sun-Mon as it bears no resemblance to EPS consensus. As of 00z solutions, EC remains the favoured outcome. Anyway, let's see how the next runs carry the tale forward.

Sounds like the BBC are a bit up in the air as well Derek Brockwayâ€@DerekTheWeather The forecast for Sunday into Monday is uncertain with differences between the models. Rain, sleet and snow risk!

Fergies latest posting interesting for Wales Not really sure where all this misguided 'GFS is rubbish' twaddle emerged on here (we're discussing computer models, not football teams)... but to return to the focal point of Sunday, which we anticipate could deliver a significant snow event: At stake here are some marked differences in the rate of E'ward frontal progression into the UK between the 12z UKMO-GM and other operational centre output, notably ECMWF. These appear correlated to the rapidity and scope at which the amplifying upper ridge over the country on Saturday cuts-off. For example, the 12z ECMWF deterministic is markedly slower with this process compared to UKMO-GM, with net result of retarding the frontal progression to a greater extent. This slower solution is favoured by Exeter, who have modified the GM accordingly (away from raw version you'll see on websites). Clearly this has profound implications in what will prove a high-stakes forecast, should current evolution continue in similar tone. Bear in mind the frontal zone in question is only just now taking shape off E coast of N America... still a way to go on this story. However, the slower EC (and presently modified GM) solution offers less threat of disruptive snow into London during Sunday, as opposed to raw GM, which did. Hence, this sort of issue - high stakes, as I suggest - remains a clear uncertainty. The consensus solution follows EC's snow accumulation prognosis (sorry I'm not allowed to share that as actual mapping), which - with frontal leading edge moving into sub-300m WBFL air across much of S England & Midlands/Wales - looks a decidedly bothersome blend. EC offers as much as 10-15cm snow anywhere from approx central Somerset up through Bristol, eastwards to around Reading and north through pretty much all of Wales and West Mids (some peak totals in these areas excess of 20cm). To the SE, similar amounts (to around 10cm) across Wilts, Hants, to W Sussex. Clearly, distribution is uncertain but in broad terms, the combined weight of EPS and deterministic output is indicative of parts of W/S Scotland, eastern Northern Ireland, N England, Wales, West Country north of Taunton, West Midlands and southern-central England being most at risk of disruptive snowfall durIng Sunday and overnight into early Monday. Currently, Exeter suggest 30% chance of some snow into London itself later on Sunday, albeIt any ccumulations here in the capital are thought likely to be pretty small. Anyway, that's some detailed thoughts for now, ahead of whatever the 00z runs might yield.

Two postings on South West forum that might be of interest by Ian Ferguson In Topic: South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 03/02/13 12z -------> Today, 22:00 Just typing whilst on conference with UKMO. We expect to see snow probably falling even to street level in Brissle tomorrow. Especially heavier showers AM and trough transit into afternoon. Interesting period ahead. somersetsnow, on 04 February 2013 - 23:13 , said: 6.5 deg here in Evercreech.Don't think we will wake up to Snow................but would be nice! Colder air not yet there. Post-midnight it'll change rapidly. Convective banding offering 2-5cm local accumulations above 200m. Hit or miss. Leading edge of occlusion remnant around noon tomorrow also looks... interesting. Even to lower levels, albeit temporary before WBFL rises later again.

latest off Derek Derek Brockwayâ€@DerekTheWeather Keep an eye on the latest warnings on the @MetOffice website. Just an ICE warning in force at the moment for #Wales http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/wl_forecast_warnings.html … also Derek Brockwayâ€@DerekTheWeather Weather map Tuesday 6am. Snow shown in blue. 1 to 2cm away from the coast. 5cm or more on some hills & mountains #Wales pic.twitter.com/Dc0jKgn7

Try this one http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

UK snow depths Wednesday 23 January 23012013 Following further snow fall yesterday and overnight, the latest snow depth observations for the UK are below. Little Rissington in Gloucestershire has the highest snow depth so far this year with 30 cm recorded. http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/01/23/uk-snow-depths-wednesday-23-january/

New warning issued Issued at: 1000 on Wed 23 Jan 2013 Valid from: 1005 on Wed 23 Jan 2013 Valid to: 2100 on Wed 23 Jan 2013 Further outbreaks of sleet or snow will affect parts of Wales and southwest England through today. A further 2-5 cm is likely in places with perhaps as much as 10 cm over high ground. The public should be aware that this may lead to localised disruption to transport http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map

Derek Brockwayâ€@DerekTheWeather Notice the bright blob over Somerset and Dorse on the radar. It's moving towards south Wales. More sleet and snow! http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartsukradar.php … Posted a couple of minutes ago

Issued at: 1145 on Tue 22 Jan 2013 Valid from: 0300 on Tue 22 Jan 2013 Valid to: 1000 on Wed 23 Jan 2013 Outbreaks of sleet or snow will affect parts of southwest England and South Wales during Tuesday, extending to other parts of southern England and the south Midlands later. Where rain or sleet is currently falling, this is expected to turn increasingly to snow during this afternoon and evening, even at low levels. Some 2-5 cm of snow is expected quite widely and in places 10 cm or more, with the highest risk of 10 cm or more occurring on high ground within the amber warning area. The public should be aware of possible disruption to transport. This update expands the area to include more of southern England, southeast Wales and the SW Midlands. What did make me smile is the timings Issued at: 1145 on Tue 22 Jan 2013 Valid from: 0300 on Tue 22 Jan 2013 nearly 9 hours after it was due to start