Zenarcher
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Posts posted by Zenarcher
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A nice calm sunny day here.
This week looks to start off cloudy across Scotland and get sunnier on Wednesday before Thursday into the weekend is currently looking very cold with wintry weather for most. Something to watch as the week goes on closer to that time.
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Another cold day here with plenty of fog around especially in the morning. A calm wind and stayed dry too. Looks like milder temperatures for the next few days but perhaps getting slightly colder from Friday into the weekend.
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It's Greenock weathermaster, they do strange things in that town, as you'll now know
Sure is the most bizarre thing I've seen so far is a ned getting chased by a pigeon.
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Nice day here clear and sunny but very cold it got down to -3.9c last night. Lots of ice around and strange enough I saw the council cut the grass a few days ago probably because it was sunny.
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Let's not all fall out over snow. What's happened to The Watcher to sort this all out. He's gone AWOL
Yes lets not all fall out. I've just deleted a few posts in here. Remember we want friendly discussions between each other and stay on topic please.
The team are aware now that The Watcher is currently not active so some team members will be keeping a check in here. Remember you can report any posts that you think breaks the forum rules as well.
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Got down to -0.5c here last night and this morning was the first ground frost so far with some ice about as well.
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Wednesday is looking interesting 50 to 60mph gusts being widespread across Scotland with 70mph possible in the Western and Northern coastal areas. With the wind being in a North direction temperatures will be very cold between -2c to 4c through out Scotland although it will feel much colder in that strong Northly wind.
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Yes this ones slipped under the radar due to everyone looking into FI for massive cold. Could be a nasty day over all.
Yep and 70mph gusts are possible the Met Office have a warning out for Western and Northern Scotland,
The north or northwesterly winds will increase during the early hours of Wednesday, with gusts perhaps reaching 70 mph in places.
The public should be aware that the winds are likely to be strong enough to cause some local disruption to travel, and possible some minor structural damage to buildings. The winds will slowly moderate from the west during Wednesday evening.Chief Forecaster's assessment
A deep area of low pressure is expected to develop near Iceland on Tuesday and then move south eastwards towards the northern North Sea on Wednesday. This will bring strong winds, especially so within the north to north westerly flow on its rearward flank.
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Low pressure is coming down from the North on Wednesday bringing very high wind speeds.
Wednesday 12am Average speeds across Western Scotland reaching 48 to 56mph,
Later on in the morning between 9am and 12pm, 48 to 52mph average wind speeds across Northern parts of the UK and average speeds over 60mph to the far North of Scotland,
By 6pm the winds move more inland and down South and stay very strong,
With these strong winds from the North it will be highly like for the Scottish Highlands to see snow,
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GFS 12z looking good so far and seems to take a step towards the 00z ECM.
ECM 00z 1am 22nd
GFS 12z 1am 22nd
Compare that to the 06z
Later on by the 23rd big bit of PV over Greenland on the 06z
Which is now gone on the 12z run as pressure tries to build up to Greenland
The models are still clearly struggling in some areas as we've seen this over the past few days some features have been completely different among various models.
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Just taking a quick look at the models between 96 and 144 hours using the GFS, ECM, UKMO, JMA, GEM, NAVGEM and CMA.
96 Hours -
The low to the far North of the UK is still giving us some problems and none of the models agree on it yet. The GEM, JMA and NAVGEM have it in a similar position although the deepness varies,
Concentrating on the three main models the GFS, ECM and UKMO it seems the UKMO and GFS are agreeing showing no low at all,
Compared to the ECM which has one,
Onto the high pressure in the Atlantic all models do show it trying to link up to Greenland which is good to see. The low entering the Atlantic and interacting with the high pressure still varies amongst the models with none of them exactly agreeing however the GFS, UKMO and NAVGEM do show something similar to each other at this point.
120 Hours -
The GFS and NAVGEM seem the most keen on sending energy into Greenland earlier than the other models,
All of the models show the low breaking through the high pressure in the Atlantic differently but the ECM and UKMO are the two that handle it in a similar way,
144 Hours -
The GFS, GEM and NAVGEM build pressure into Greenland more than the other models,
But the rest don't rush to that just yet as the ECM shows,
Despite the differences between them they do agree on colder weather conditions affecting the UK.
Overall - At just 96 hours we see large differences between the models on how they handle the low to the North of the UK some show it and some don't show it at all. Next at 120 hours the models continue to agree on high pressure building up in the Atlantic but they aren't sure yet how far it will build into Greenland and the models have still yet to work out how the low moving into and across the Atlantic will affect the high pressure. By 144 hours some models build high pressure into Greenland but some don't rush to that just yet, as for example the ECM shows by 168 hours high pressure doesn't exactly go to Greenland but it goes over the North of the UK. So despite the differences these are very good charts tonight with pretty much all of them showing cold weather on the horizon which seems to be a building trend now.
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The difference 24 hours can make.
Yesterday for the 19th
And today
More energy going into Greenland.
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My view on the models this evening and where each one stands,
Firstly the next 3 days (72 hours),
Thursday -
A large area of high pressure sits to the West of the UK but there is a low to our far North East and with the UK in the middle it will give very strong winds. Gale to severe gale force along Scotland and Northern parts of Ireland and England. Overall it will be a cloudy day with showers for many but Eastern and South Eastern parts of England will see some sunshine. Minimum temperatures on Thursday evening and into the night will get down to -1c to 3c in Northern parts.
Friday -
High pressure covers most of the UK giving cloudy but dry weather everywhere with winds easing down. Scotland may see a few showers passing through and gale force winds will stay over the far North of Scotland. Minimum temperatures on Friday morning will be widespread ranging from -1c to 2c across inland parts in Scotland and England.
Saturday -
High pressure stays over England and Wales but lower pressure moves in over Scotland and Ireland. The weather will be the same as the day before cloudy, dry and dull although Northern parts of the UK may see some sunshine in the late afternoon. Showers will also stay in the North. Saturday morning will be cold across England and Wales especially in the South East of England with temperatures going down to 0c to 2c.
Now onto the outlook between 96 to 144 hours using GFS, ECM, UKMO, JMA, GEM, NAVGEM and CMA.
96 Hours Sunday -
Most of the models are starting to agree on the track of the big storm over Northern Norway although GEM and the CMA both place the center of the low in a completely different place to the other models.
The good news today is that most of the models do seem to make a better attempt with the high in the Atlantic in getting it to go up North to Greenland.
Comparing the models side by side the ECM seems to have good agreement along with the GFS, UKMO and a few other models backing it up.
120 Hours Monday -
Each model does begin to struggle here none of them entirely agree with each other so I wouldn't take anything past this point too serious for now.
To show the differences,
Six models apart from the GFS agree on a low to the North of the UK none of them really know where it will be yet or how deep it is,
UKMO is a good example,
Next the models aren't sure on how much PV will be to the North of Norway after that big storm moves on,
The differences between GEM below,
And NAVGEM show the ranges of PV in that area,
Finally in the Atlantic all the models apart from the CMA make an attempt to build pressure towards Greenland and to add to the mix the models are asked to predict what the low entering the Atlantic is going to do when it meets this large high pressure system.
The GFS, ECM, UKMO, JMA and GEM all do show something similar in that area so good agreement to some degree,
JMA shows what 5 models show in some way,
NAVGEM and the CMA look like the odd ones out here and the CMA is the only one that looks flat out of all of them.
144 Hours Tuesday -
Big differences between the models now but most of them do show a large area of high pressure in the Atlantic.
The UKMO seems the most keen on building pressure the most to Greenland,
NAVGEM and the CMA both go their own ways at this point but the majority left do show some cold charts at this point despite their differences. The low I mentioned at 120 hours gets handled differently between each model and how it interacts and affects the high pressure in the Atlantic. The models show this evening we don't know yet since they all do something different but the good news is despite this they do show colder weather.
Overall - The models in the past 24 hours have got a better hang of the large storm over Northern Norway although two models are still struggling with it. Next most models show a low to the North of the UK but there are differences between them at this point and even in the Atlantic on how the high reacts to the changes around it. By Tuesday most models do show cold charts and there does seem to be decent agreement among those who do. I would say the changes we have seen in the past 24 hours have been good.
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Whats the craziest model run anyone has ever seen. As in, compared to the previous run, completely different. Have they ever been broken with crazy readings?
December 11th 2011 for me I wrote it in my blog at the time,
For a few days every weather model had been showing a severe storm hitting mainly Ireland, England and Wales. It caused a lot of concern for the Met Office and the members on Net Weather. On the 11th of December the ECM done its evening run which was watched by 100's it made the storm nearly vanish, it caused a big surprised many thought it was a fluke, later the other models agreed with the ECM, I believe it's one of the ECM's finest moments.
Basically at the time all models showed a very deep low about 945mb hitting the UK giving average wind speeds over 60mph to parts of Ireland and most of England and Wales. To see some models show this just 96 hours away usually a time where they have pinned the track down then to change to nothing at all within the next 24 hours was amazing and shows anything can happen.
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My view on the models tonight and where each one stands.
Firstly the next 3 days (next 72 hours) in a bit more detail,
Wednesday -
Generally a cloudy day with scattered showers thanks to low pressure sitting to the North West, higher pressure will remain over Southern parts giving drier and brighter conditions. Gale force winds in the West and some low temperatures in the morning especially in the South West where 0c to 2c is likely.
Thursday -
A much drier day but still remaining cloudy for most however England and Wales can expect some sunshine from time to time. A strong North Westerly wind which will touch severe gale force over Northern exposed parts will make it feel much colder in the wind and some wintry showers will occur over the Scottish Highlands. Low temperatures will be mainly in the Northern parts between 0c and 3c.
Friday -
High pressure covers the UK bringing calmer conditions than the day before with the strong winds easing but it will be cloudy, dry and dull. Inland parts of England and Scotland are looking cold on Friday morning between -1c to 2c.
Going to compare the GFS, ECM, UKMO, JMA, GEM, NAVGEM and CMA.
96 Hours Saturday
Nothing major stands out apart from a few minor details first of all the UKMO is the only model to develop a 980mb low to the far North of the Faroe Isles no other model shows this.
UKMO below
Compared with the ECM
Next the models are dealing with a massive storm over Northern Norway as well some have it down to 945mb while others have it at 955mb, the NAVGEM model goes a step further than any other model by going off the scale which you can see clear on the Northern Hemisphere chart,
So the models don't know where exactly the low is going to track yet there are some very large differences between all of them on today's run and this will surely have an effect on trusting anything too serious after this point until they show agreement.
120 Hours Sunday
First of all large differences on each model again on how they handle the big storm over Northern Norway, for example the UKMO and the ECM have the center over about 750 miles apart by this time.
Five models do agree on forming a low around Iceland but the GFS and CMA don't.
An example of this between the GFS
And GEM
144 Hours Sunday
Most models by this point start building up pressure in the Atlantic or at least try to towards Greenland.
The five models that had a low develop off Iceland the day before now have it over the UK as GEM shows,
But the GFS says no to it and forms nothing like it,
Overall - There are some good and bad charts out there tonight it will be interesting to see how things develop over the next few days just remember to always look for a trend and not take each run very serious and say its game over. I personally think we will see a cold snap towards the end of the month or at least average temperatures staying on the colder side, this is good interesting model watching at the moment a time for everyone to continue to learn about a subject they love and should look forward to whatever the outcome if nothing happens its not winter over by any means we still have plenty of time to see cold weather.
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The stratosphere temperature has risen very quickly lately a possible reason why the models are taking their time to get the hang of things,
Some very wintry conditions in FI from the GFS widespread across the UK,
Very nice chart PV takes a holiday,
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Still working on the data and stuff for my winter forecast it should be out soon. I've come across something interesting for the remainder of this year.
Climate Simulator which I've used for last years winter forecast and performed great along with predicting above average temperatures in my summer forecast the CET for July was 2.3c above average and 1.1c for August and 0.1c for September.
Anyway looking at the Northern Hemisphere graphs it goes for average temps being below average for the first half but we can expect it to rise towards the end of November and it should continue into December or January.
(pink line forecast average dark blue line yearly averages)
Now looking at the actual temperatures being recorded there thanks to NOAA we see temperatures have been below average so far but that red line you see means it is currently rising although it is still below the 1979 to 2008 mean for this time of the year it is on the rise.
What does this mean for us? A pattern change to more settled weather for the second half of November, the last time we saw a rise in temperature was mid October a month ago where we entered a settled spell. Does it mean cold weather it could possibly but I would say you can expect an increase in frosts and higher ground parts especially in the North to see an increase in wintry showers. We will have to wait and see but checking the graphs in Climate Simulator it does go for temperatures dropping slightly below average for the end of November.
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The GFS is really deepening some of these lows on it's output recently, not sure whether they are remotely believable.930mb really GFS????
It then does the same thing in FI blowing away any progress that was made in high resolution. Before then it looks pretty good
It could be possible we had a 935mb low in the Atlantic back in January this year but yes the GFS does tend to overdo these lows.
The UKMO at the same time shows a 965mb low so it just shows the large differences between the models at 144 hours. Interestingly both GEM and NAVGEM 00z runs showed a deep low there as well going off the scale.
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A nice clear and sunny day here still on the cold side.
Some windy weather moving in tonight, more less the whole of Scotland will see an increase in wind speeds but the Western and Northern parts are due to get hit the worst with gusts between 60 to 70mph possible.
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6pm Sunday to 7am Monday very windy weather across Scotland,
Tonight 60 to 70mph gusts across Western Scotland,
And through out tonight into Monday morning the strong winds move across Northern Scotland bringing 55 to 65mph gusts,
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Lets see how the models handled the recent storm in October,
21st October
GFS showed a 950mb low tracking over the UK
Both CMA and BOM showed a low further South,
None of the other models at this point picked it up.
22nd October
The models started doing silly things with the low most of them were still not keen on it but the GFS did still show it but a lot weaker and further South this time,
ECM sent it down more South missing the UK
But the UKMO showed it could still be really bad and still had the chance to hit the UK
23rd October
More models seemed to start showing a low but still none of them had a clue what to do with it.
The GFS seemed similar to the day before
ECM still sent it South although overall it had moved the low up North slightly more than the day before
But it was the UKMO and BOM charts that still showed stormy conditions keeping the interest and uncertain outcomes going. They showed a strong low over the UK.
24th October
The storm will arrive in 96 hours time and most models show it now and are starting to agree on the track but the CMA and NAVGEM seem uninterested in it and show nothing.
The ECM showed the worse chart for winds as a strong tight low passed by inland areas
Most agreed on the path but showed something less strong and the ECM only had support from BOM which still showed a tight low.
GFS stuck by what it had said for the past few days
25th October
Now just 72 hours away the models continued to disagree on things the confusion continues.
The GFS, ECM, JMA and NAVGEM showed a low crossing over central England like this
But the UKMO, GEM and BOM for the same time had the low over and done with by the afternoon for that day
The CMA was on its own with a strange theory that there would be no low at all.
26th October
48 hours away the storm has gained so much attention now and the models for the first time agreed on its track and timing something the UKMO and a few other models showed the day before
27th October
24 hours away and the models start to downgrade the low and make it arrive even earlier
28th October
This was the final outcome its strange to think something like that can cause the models to really struggle but with the jet stream in a tricky position it was really difficult for the models to get its track and deepness correct.
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High Res NMM model shows strong gusts on Saturday evening, between 50 to 60mph perhaps a touch more in some places,
Strong gusts 50 to 60mph and again probably more in some parts through late Saturday and the early hours of Sunday,
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My last update for Autumn 2013
November
Rainfall - Average or above average in general but the far North of Scotland may get away with slightly less than average.
Temperature - Using both Climate Simulator and CFS data they agree on temperatures staying above average or at times close to average.
Pressure Patterns - Low pressure mainly situated over Iceland and high pressure over Europe and at times over the UK. With the UK being sandwiched between the two it explains the average or above average temperatures and rainfall mostly above average.
Quick look at the start of Winter December and January - Please note this isn't my winter 2013/2014 forecast it will be put together at the end of November.
December - Lower than average temperatures and rainfall going by the CFS. Climate Simulator doesn't exactly agree it goes for more average temperatures but does agree on some short cold spells making temperatures drop just slightly below average.
January - Below average rainfall for the North but above for the South. Average temps in the South but below average in the North says the CFS. Climate Simulator which I've been using for over a year now and yet to be wrong goes for average temperatures in the first half of January with short cold spells but the second half of January turns much colder about 1.5c nearly 2c below normal. It will be interesting to see if it changes it mind when running it again with more data at the end of the month for the winter forecast.
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Here's my step by step summary for each of the area's looking to get hit by the very strong winds,
South West of England 9pm Sunday to 2am Monday
The low moves over Wales giving very strong winds to the South West of England. The high res NMM model shows gusts between 60 to 70mph which is similar to what the Met Office say in the image below,
Heavy rain will also move in from the South West bringing 6 to 12mm,
South Central of England 11pm Sunday to 4am Monday
The NMM model shows gusts along the coasts to reach over 75mph. The Met Office show the same thing as well. Below I've included two images in one that shows 12am and 3am on Monday for the gusts,
Rainfall for Southern Wales, SW and S England between 6 and 10mm,
South East of England 12am Monday to 7am Monday
The NMM model shows strong gusts even for inland parts around 50 to 60mph. Coastal parts 68 to 72mph.
The Met Office also go for gusts being strong inland some places will get over 50mph gusts and along the coasts nearing 70mph,
The rain moves east giving 6 to 10mm,
Eastern England 1am Monday to 8am Monday
NMM Model shows 48 to 56mph gusts but the coasts could see a bit higher 60 to 70mph is possible. The Met Office agrees with these wind speeds,
Flooding - For those concerned the image below shows what the NMM 24 hour rainfall totals are. Western Wales, SW England and NW England have high totals over 25mm,
Just to add a wee note well done to the NAE model for catching onto the low center and track before the other models.
NAE Yesterday vs the GFS,
Today against the GFS,
Stay safe overnight to all those in the path of the very strong winds.
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Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Still plenty of uncertainty over this possible event the UKMO and GFS both take it in different ways.
I've put the GFS and UKMO at 72 hours and marked the area of difference on the GFS its starting up the low pressure,
The low pressure at 96 hours on the GFS brings storm force winds over Scotland and cold temperatures across the UK with wintry weather as well,
Looking though the data if the 00z ECM it shows something very similar to the GFS in fact the GFS 12z takes a step closer to it.
The GFS 12z and ECM 00z at 1am on the 5th both show the low about to deepen,
Lastly the UKMO at 96 hours does not appear to form a low like the ECM and GFS,