philmes

Hilarious low pressure system in the Atlantic by the end of the high resolution segment.

12z runs are filthy from a "cold and snow in Central/Eastern Europe" perspective again. GFS prolongs and strengthens the warm period from the 22nd and the 12z EMC run is best left unviewed.

Thanks!

Hi, could you add the following Polish ski resorts to "ski and snowboard extra" please: Ustron Czantoria Base: 389m ASL Top: 851m ASL Latitude 49.683902 Longitude 18.820524 Stozek Wisla Base: 758m Top: 998m Latitude 49.604759 Longitude 18.834686 Thanks!

Things looking a bit better now with the 0z and 12z GFS runs. There is 100% ensemble support for a warmup in Eastern/Central Europe on the 22nd, with 850hpa temperatures rising to ~3 degrees. The majorit then show a pulse of cold air arriving from the north, with 850hpa temperatures dropping back to -5. This is accompanied by a band of precipitation which will probably start as rain and turn into snow, with perhaps 10 - 20cm falling in the Tatras. Another pulse of warm air arrives from the south east on the 25th, with 850hpa temperatures rising to ~0. After this things get more confused, but there is an increasing trend for cold air to plunge in from the north west, accompanied by significant amounts of precipitation. The exact timing is unclear, but hopefully this will fall as snow. After that... operational and control GFS runs show the return of extremely cold conditions. There is some limited ensemble support for this, so we shall see. Edit: ECMWF ensembles seem to point to the same outcome as well. Fingers crossed.

Heh, as I post that the 18z GFS run rolls out. Not stunningly cold, but looking like fairly "normal" zonality and the warm pulses have been toned down quite a lot.

So there's been a small amount of precipitation in the Tatras, amounting to maybe 10cm. Coupled with the snowmaking efforts (helped by the incredibly cold and dry air), suitably equipped resorts are reporting up to 40cm of snow. Not bad. Given the low temperatures, the artificial snow is likely to be relatively "dry", so I'm a bit dubious as to the quality of the base. However, the forecast for the 22nd onwards is a bit worrying - very warm 850hpa temps, precipitation and very strong south-westerly winds. Fohen effect anyone?

I'm curious about the medium term prognosis in central/eastern Europe (specifically Pilsko/Szczyrk/Zakopane on the border between Poland and Slovakia) where I'm going to be during the festive period. Temperatures look to be extremely low for the next couple of weeks, but essentially dry. Not such a problem in the Alps with large artificial snow operations but more problematic when you've only got a couple of 10 year old ducted fan cannons. So what's the chance of some decent precipitation between now and Christmas?

fairly diabolical FI again.

Overwhelmed? Underwhelmed surely? Positive AO tends to promote warm and wet conditions in our neck of the woods... interestingly the NAO is trending negative in the long term, which is a good thingh. Not that I ascribe much accuracy to the long term NAO/AO forecasts