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The underwriter

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  1. never mind the rain and the wind, we could be on track to record the coldest September day since at least 1986. Temp at the moment in mid-Essex is around 8-9c and even when the rain clears, if the wind picks up the temperature might not change much from current levels.
  2. not a drop yesterday here in Ingatestone, Essex. last light shower was 17th June.
  3. Recent months trending back above average after a fairly slow start to 2016. I'm going for 15.6
  4. The CET series goes back over 300 years and if the monthly values were set out on a graph it would be bell-shaped with the most frequent values clustered around the mean. December 2015 at 9.7c would sit at the far right of the distribution. I would be interested to know, if anyone can calculate it, what the return period would be for such a value. Bearing in mind that no December has come remotely close in over 300 years it is reasonable to assume that the return period is more than 300 years but at such an extreme value could it be a 1 in 1000 year return period?
  5. I was fairly close in December with my 5.4c pick, I'm going for another fairly mild month of 5.0c.
  6. I'm going for a fairly mild 5.4. We're surrounded by above average SST's so I can't see where a cold month will come from.
  7. I agree Russ. When you think how far below normal the temperature is today -its around 7 degrees at the moment in Essex, and gradually falling, if the same system happened in the winter the temp would probably be no more than -2 during the day with heavy snow. When the wind picks up, as forecast tonight it would be drifting badly.
  8. First few days definitely look to be on the cool side, but perhaps we'll get another warm-up after that. I'm going for 8.5.
  9. Continuing with the warm theme. 12.3 for me.
  10. Although this month is clearly exceptional perhaps it is simply the result of the consistent synoptics. I don't think we should get too excited about this in isolation. What is more interesting in my opinion is an entire season that throws up an exceptional result. In the case of last winter although December was freakishly cold the remaining winter months balanced it out into something much closer to the average. Likewise if May turns out to be cool a Spring that included such an unusual month as April 2011 would then be viewed as being only on the warm side overall. However a warm May would then lead to Spring 2011 being categorised as very warm and possibly record breaking which would be much more noteworthy than a single very warm month.
  11. Well I can't see it being as cold and miserable as July. Hopefully the last few days will be a sign of things to come for August, although the daytime temperatures haven't been exciting and night times are still surprisingly cold for the time of year. Therefore I'm not going to get carried away and predict a really warm August so I'm only going for 16.5. I hope I'm proved wrong.
  12. I think its important to remember that parts of eastern Europe are having an extremely hot summer, and that there have also been notable heatwaves in Greece and Russia this summer. Just because we have missed out doesn't mean that the average temperature across Europe has been below normal - if anything it has been well above. What we have seen this year is a rather blocked pattern that is not favouring north western Europe. We couldn't expect every summer to be like this one, any more than we could expect every summer to be like last year.
  13. In a similar vein to May, I think there will be some wet spells which will keep the average down a bit. I'm going for 15.2.
  14. I think the CET will be a bit higher than April, but not by much, virtue of warmer nights but not warmer days. I'm going for 11.5.
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