Lenticular

Latest high sea forecast STORM WARNINGAT 181200UTC, LOW 53 NORTH 17 WEST 960 EXPECTED 63 NORTH14 WEST 943 BY 191200UTC. LOW 66 NORTH 28 WEST 947EXPECTED 64 NORTH 31 WEST 966 BY SAME TIME. NEW LOWMOVING RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARDS EXPECTED 51 NORTH 52WEST 967 BY THAT TIME. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACHSTORM FORCE 10 IN THE SOUTH OF EAST NORTHERN SECTION, THENORTH OF EAST CENTRAL SECTION AND THE NORTH OF WESTCENTRAL SECTION THROUGHOUT, WINDS ALSO REACHING STORMFORCE 10 OR VIOLENT STORM FORCE 11 IN NORTH SHANNON UNTIL190000UTC, BAILEY UNTIL 190900UTC, FAEROES AND SOUTHEASTICELAND FROM 190300UTC UNTIL 191600UTC, SOUTHERN WESTNORTHERN SECTION UNTIL 191000UTC, IN NORWEGIAN BASIN FROM190100UTC UNTIL 191500UTC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACHVIOLENT STORM FORCE 11 TO HURRICANE FORCE 12 IN ROCKALLUNTIL 190400UTCand just incase you don't know your sea areas Rockall is just to the NW of Ireland!!

Just had a look at the Data logger for the last 12hrs at Capel Curig and it has seen gusts of 110 @ 15:15hrs dont think this is going to be the strongest gust out of this system by the time its finished, would want to be out in the atlantic this evening! On life is enough already. latest atlantic jet stream analyses shows a very strong ribbon of jet just to the SW of the current low centre tucked in just to the back of the trough!! not good http://virga.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_atl_init_00.gif

The isobars on the latest atlantic analysis http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=standard look to be very close and the wind will have gained quiet and amount of inerta as its being driven round the centre of the deeper low to the NW before making land, could be some very high gusts on the NW west coast of Uk and Ireland!! very defined squall line showing in the trough thats coming through.

Mace Head in West of ireland and Caple Curig in Wales have both seen winds gusting to 90Mph and the secondary low to the NW of the current centre looks to be moving southward?

Ok roughly where the secondary low is currently, and my guess where it will track, could be well wrong and have been before :) https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19111-storm-guess/

from the wind forecasts on XC weather and a few of the European models it was supposed to be slowly increasing all evening? plus the centre of the Low is about 10 deg west and running along just below 50deg north line still a little further south. Estofex have given warning out for Northern france and Germany expecting the low/disturbance to take a more southerly track than some models? well im of to bed to go to work a 4:30 so i wlll find out one way or another

Looking at the sustained wind data from the likes of the mumbles and Portland bill, the wind is currently weakening ( 17:00 = 44mph/ 19:00 = 36mph)and has been for the last few hours, were as it was forecast to be picking up. the centre of the secondary low if it follows the upper jet as it has been will be more likely to go through slightly to the south along the channel??

there is a very slight chance that the secondary low will end up dying out and we will just be left with the main low to the NNE ?? now that would be very embarrassing, i know that a sting jet has been forecast to give the storm its power in the early hours, but some elements are currently missing. the main one being that there is currently no real organised rotation around the secondary low?

Looking at the Atlantic analysis maps the secondary low centre has only dropped 1mb per hour for the last 6 hours still showing centre pressure of 989mb so quite some way of the 975-965mb predicted, unless it undergoes some rapid bombogenesis in the next few hours so not sure there is going to be quite the wind strength predicted earlier!! http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=standard

there is a secondary low forming over northern Italy, will this change the original track for the front??

am i being a little dense here or is the jet guiding the occluded front that is supposed to bring the snow tomorrow a little further East, the pressure charts and radar are showing a definitive kink in the front, almost as though there is a small upper trough??

We Had a very light sleet shower at about 19:00 this evening and it looks a though some of the showers wandering down the north sea may make it a little way in land but if the low does push in sunday then the cold snap will be short lived, and if the GFS 12z is correct it will be a rough ride during the middle of the week with a poss for cold but blustery and wet weather. looks like another cold event at the end of next week!! just right for bonfire night

Well after an interesting drive in to work in the remnants of the cold front Down to sunny Dagenham, and finding that they have shut the QE2 bridge all last night so the M25/A13 roundabout is completely jammed, I have had a quick look at the pressure charts from 24:00hrs and 07:00hrs and the centre of the low has only moved about 8 deg east and 5 deg south, plus the pressure gradient between the high to the south west and the low in the North west has remained at about 76mb for over 10 hours give or take 2 mb for analysis error, the high has stayed at 1040mb and the low at 964mb, so the jet must be fuelling quite a bit of this system and unless the low gets a move on it could be windy for quite a few hours to come. So much for assessing the buoy data last night!!

latest Bouy data from 62095 shows the pressure to be steady and the wind has dropped from 31kts down to around 25 kts http://www.ndbc.noaa...d_Kingdom.shtml Im of to kip now if the wind will let me, should calm down in about 2 hours for the SW and dont think it will be finished until the early morning for some parts.

Looks to be around the north of Manchester in an East/West line, but from the rain radar is losing a bit of its energy. too long over land.

ESTOFEX did issue a warning about this event last night but i still think the high to the south west is having a greater effect hence the bigger wind field. Storm Forecast Valid: Wed 04 Jan 2012 06:00 to Thu 05 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC Issued: Tue 03 Jan 2012 23:24 Forecaster: PUCIK A level 1 was issued for a broad area from the British Isles to NW Germany and S Sweden for severe wind gusts and tornadoes. SYNOPSIS A very active baroclinic pattern will persist over most of Western and Northern Europe. Very deep low pressure system with central pressure below 970 hPa will progress from Southern Sweden towards Southern Finland during the forecast period. Weakening dynamics, e.g. strenght of the mid and upper level jet will have an adverse effect on the low, which is already well occluded and is expected to slowly fill. Another strong disturbance has started forming over the Atlantic, fueled by 80 m/s westerly to northwesterly 300 hPa jet-streak. Short wave developing in the exit region of the jet-streak will amplify during the day, as ridge begins to build over the Atlantic with prevailing flow becoming more northwesterly in nature. Again, deep low pressure system will be the result with very strong low level wind fields, especially in its warm sector. Center of the low will likely pass just to the north of the British Isles towards Southern Norway and Denmark. DISCUSSION ... Late evening and night hours British Isles to BENELUX, NW Germany and W Denmark... With the arrival of another major baroclinic system, model fields suggest significant dry intrusion behind the jet-streak, possibly spreading partly over the low level warm sector of the surface low. As an interesting note, dry air is expected to penetrate below 700 hPa as suggested by GFS cross sections! A strongly forced convective line seems like a possibility, especially when taking into the account very strong dynamics of the system, even though instability will likely be only marginal at best. 850 hPa flow over 40 m/s ensures very strong wind shear at lower levels and points to the possibility of severe wind gusts and tornadoes within such line. Where exactly will such a line pass is a matter of question, on which models do not agree. Therefore a broad Level 1 is introduced to cover range of possibilities. An update with even an upgrade to Level 2 might follow during the day if situation becomes more certain.

i think one of the reasons that the south is getting quite a good pasting from this system is that the compression from the High to the SW was underestimated, the isobars are quite tight for a long way out from the centre of the low, and the centre is not as well defined as yesterdays?

have just come back from suffolk into north essex playing dodge the falling branch and its very lively out there, looking at the wind map it shows that from just below Edinburg to the south coast is having wind speeds of around 45moh average and gusts of around 55mph yes some are more and some less but that is still a very big wind field, so much energy! and looking at the http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?hour=0〈=en&map=AtlN atlantic analyse its not going to calm down for a little while.

The QE2 bridge is being closed as we speak and looking at the latest Atlantic surface pressure analyse the system could deepen a little further yet?

There is an interesting little low out in the Atlantic at 40deg west and 60 deg north, that if it become the dominant low would more than like give the centre a much further north track. As the Met O are showing this as the feature that will become Fridays low, the jet needs to move to a much more SE track as its almost pure E currently and that would put the centre around the borders?

Morning, well after an interesting drive in, I have had a look at the low NW of us and its hardly moved in the last 7hrs and is down to 948mb with some tightening isobars in its SW quadrant,http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?hour=0〈=en&map=AtlN have also noticed that the wind speed has started to pick up again in much of the S, SW & SE of England so get a feeling that its not finished yet. http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ and if the isobars are correct then anyone in the NW of the UK that has been crowing about how is the south that’s been getting the hammering may get a little taster as well. If the Met O got the track right then northern Ireland and northern England and Scotland could get some very windy conditions later.

from what i can see (dont ask me im no expert) but the centre of the low has sat at around 20 degrees west of us for the last 4 hours and has made very slow progress (about 70 miles) even though the upper jet is showing about 140/160 knots ESE. looks like its still got quite a bit of Warm moist tropical air to mix with a cold dry strait from Canada. very defined line of mixing http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/AIRMASS/WESTERNEUROPE/index.htm

For the SE i would imagine around 3am! but the low is still deepening and is slow moving, could be later around 4:30am, great just when im on my way to work