eddie
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Drizzle turning to snow now. There is a covering on my car windscreen that was clear 10 minutes ago.
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Light drizzle here in Brighouse.
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I took these two photographs earlier. I didn't know what kind of cloud it was - just thought it looked interesting so I snapped it with my phone.
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Looking at the 12z GFS, the strongest winds for England could actually be late Tuesday morning as the storm centre moves off into the North Sea.
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Red Alerts are very infrequent , possibly to the point of stupidity. Meto for whichever reason don't issue them ?
I would expect to see this.
It may indeed just feel like a strong Autumn storm.
Very recently readings from the highlands produced this, notice the similar wind speeds to those predicted for Ex Katia
The Met Red warning for wind means.
"Widespread structural damage, e.g. roofs blown off, mobile homes overturned, power lines brought down.
Risk to personal safety from flying debris.
Potentially widespread and/or prolonged interruptions to power.
Expect widespread transport disruption due to e.g. roads blocked by fallen trees. "
While there will be some disruption I don't think there will be "Widespread structural damage".
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Looking at the 06z GFS this is my take:
England and Wales:
It will be unusually windy for the time of year, perhaps enough to bring down a few branches and the odd tree given that they are in full leaf. No widespread disruption.
Don't go camping or up a mountain. Take the garden furniture inside.
Scotland:
It's going to very windy in Scotland, especially in the Western Isles, but these areas are used to it being very windy. There is more chance of disruption here (loss of power supplies and property damage) but nothing these areas don't see on a fairly regular basis. The western side of Scotland is hit by strong atlantic storms almost every year.
Don't go camping or up a mountain. Don't drive a high sided vehicle. You probably don't have any garden furniture because it's too wet cold or windy most of the time.
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That sounds like a wonderful scientific method of determining what direction the temperature of the climate is going. Well done.
I might see if I can get it published in one of the scientific journals.
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I always said to myself that the day Craig Evans wins the CET contest is the day I will stop doubting the UK climate is warming. Well that day has arrived
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Those in the plant still fighting the situation define the word bravery.
Incredible bravery.
These workers aren't like those at Chernobly that were sent in without any awareness of the risks.
They know exactly what the risks are. They know it is very likely that they are going to suffer an early death, probably from cancer, because they decided to turn up for work this morning.
True heros.
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27th's min was -6.3oC. Max prob around 3 or 4 at best.
so, mean shall be -1.5oC.
-1.0oC to 28th
Last 4 days would have to hit a mean of around 7oC to hit zero.
predicted means will prob be:
28th: 3.5
29th 6.1
30th 6.4
31st 5.5
DEC will finish at -0.2 or -0.3 without adjustments.
So unfortunately it really was/will be an easy and simple breakdown from record breaking low temperatures to much milder temps by 28th - despite some serious inital denial by some in the model discussion.
You are correct. I mistook today's minimum for yesterdays mean.
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Assuming no end of month adjustment, the period of the 27th-31st would have to average 5.2C for the month to end at 0.0C.
Since today's minumum was recorded at -3.2C it is likely that today will come in somewhere around 1C.
That will mean that last four days of the month will need to average about 5.8C to end at 0C. Looking at the GFS that seems virtually impossible.
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Well, there was an arugement tha said AGW was causing the synoptics by causing the sub tropical highs and thus the jet streams to push further and further north, locking us into a never ending south-westerly nightmare. This was essentially the "UK Warming/even larger teapot" theory in a nutshell.
For me it never really stacked up because the change happened so quickly and was so dramatic. In less than two years we went from the mega block of February 1986 to endless zonality of January 1988. AGW is a very long term thing with changes happening over decadal periods, not in a couple of years. But anyway, it was a theory I know Ian Brown and a few others signed up to.
The null hypothesis for me was always that the never ending south-westerlies were just an unfortunate spell of weather. Nobody ever presented any strong evidence to say AGW had changed our weather patterns. There just seemed to be a lot of 'Well the jet stream hasn't been south for ages. What else is there to explain it apart from global warming?'
I should add that I do agree with the AGW theory although I'll save that for another thread.
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The change in our winter weather during those mild few years was mostly synoptic. It's not like we were getting perfect northerlies and still getting above average temperatures (although that day may come if the world warms 4C). The wind just never seemed to blow in the right direction for long enough to get a cold month.
There was always going to be another sub 1C month.
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One of the ways I like to rank months is by their anomaly from the rolling 30y mean.
First I calculate each month's anomaly from the previous 30 year mean (e.g for 2007 I would subtract it's value from the 1977-2006 mean).
I then find the standard deviation of the entire anomaly data set and then divide each anomaly by said standard deviation.
You can then rank each month by how exceptional it was compared the climatic norms of it time.
So for example, ranked in this way, December 1981(0.3C, -2.7 standard deviations from 30y mean) was colder relative to it's previous 30 years than was 1874 (-0.2C, -2.6 sd. from 30y mean).
Obviously this month will be by far the coldest when ranked this way and is likely to be the first December that hits -3 standard deviations. This is something you would only expect to happen less than once in every 200 years.
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This month has made me very happy, from both a statistical point of view and because I have been able experience true cold UK weather.
A couple of years ago we were discussing how rare sub 3C month are. In a few days time we will have had three sub 3c winter months in a row.
A couple of years ago we were discussing if we would ever see a sub 10C year again. In a few days time we will have had a sub 10C year followed by a sub 9C year.
Whether or not we break the December record, this has been a good year for cold lovers.
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Possibly, but isn't that only the coldest 'last' week of November, not the overall coldest week of the month on record? Or is it just a given that the coldest last week will be the coldest of all the weeks on record?
Good question.
In fact I have just done some calculations and I think that the week of 22nd to the 28th of November 1904 was the coldest on record at -1.3c (-1.27C rounded).
The final week of November 2010 was actually the 2nd coldest November week on record.
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The coldest final week in November (before this year) was -0.4C back in 1787.
The next coldest was -0.3C in 1923.
This year the final week came in at -1.1C.
Record smashed.
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-8.0C would be the second coldest November day in the daily CET minimum series (Which starts in 1878). Only November 24th 1904 was colder (-8.6C).
Since the -8.0C is stil subject to quality control there is still a chance that today will have the lowest minimum in the series.
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A sub 10C CET is almost certain now.
If August comes in at 16.3C (a high estimate from where we are now) then we need September to December to average 10.4C to reach 10C.
The 1971-2000 average September to December CET is 9.0C.
The warmest September to December CET was in 2006 (11.10C)
The second warmest was in 1898 (10.3C)
Only 2006 had a September to December period warm enough to take us from where we are now to > 10C.
If the rest of the year comes in near the rolling 10 year average then we should finish with a CET near 9.6C.
Sub 9C is also very unlikely. This would require a September to December CET < 7.3C. The last time this happened was 1952 (6.6C).
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A late 16.5C please.
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16.8C please
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14.9C please.
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13.5C please.
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I will go for 9.3C please.
Yorkshire & Lincs Regional Discussion 21/01/13 06z Onwards
in Regional
Posted
Just got back from a walk to the local shop and there is no precipitation of any kind falling here.