Stephen W

@mountain shadow Yes, seems to be the theme through the entire winter..despite another SSW ongoing, no strong evidence of northerly blocking in the NWP output other than throwing out a few outside the reliable timeframe.. In fact, as you say, the opposite seems to be the case once within the reliable with the Iberian ridge having more influence and resulting in well above average temps, not helped by warmer than normal SSTs in the North Atlantic. I had thought this current SSW may prove otherwise and perhaps it still will towards month end but no sign yet of any increased ensemble members heading in that direction post day 10. The trend, if anything, is less towards northerly blocking so other factors must be at play still.

@Mike Poole Will be interesting to see if this SSW does indeed produce GH blocking and a cold period for the UK. However, looking at the NWP output, it’s a familiar story with some tantalising cold in FI on some ensemble members only for the complete opposite to be the reality in near time! Wouldn’t surprise me if we end up with an early plume of warmth courtesy of the familiar euro/iberian heights which we just can’t shake off for long. Or, just more rain! GFS ensembles this morning look more unsettled to me which I was surprised about.

@Mike Poole Your last para sums it all up perfectly, dire!! A winter that held such promise but didn’t just disappoint but went majorly bust on many fronts!! I never thought we’d end up with one of the warmest Febs on record. And yes, yet again the strat forecasts are trending in the wrong direction today. Worn down by this winter is an understatement.

@Blessed Weather Yes, I’ve been following these SSW charts all week and this morning’s update is not a positive trend. Some talk on twitter about a possible double dip SSW but that does not seem to be reflected within these charts. I’m no expert in this area so defer to those more knowledgeable. I think we are all hanging in the last chance saloon because of this potential SSW…

@Kasim Awan I think we could well see a CET in excess of 7C in the absence of a significant cold spell (which seems likely) and continued very mild days/nights (also likely!) given the current output. We are already at 7.8C. I have to remind myself we are in February and not April !

Very poor set of 12z ensembles from GFS. Mild pretty much throughout and on that basis we are on course for an exceptionally mild CET and could well be near the top for warmth. Hay ho, good riddance winter 23/24.

@nick sussex, yes the only thing keeping me hanging in there is the potential SSW forecast. It’s all still jam tomorrow and it’s wearing to see the continued mild/exceptional mild output being pushed in the short term output. The CET for this month is likely to be very mild even if we do scrape some colder temps towards the end. It’s been a painful season of model watching that’s for sure.

@bluearmy things seem to be trending in the wrong direction. You are hinting this could be a response to the SSW?

I’m more interested in the potential for more sustained cold synoptics for the second half of Feb. A transient snow event this week is of little interest. GFS 12z operational has totally flipped and we end up in a mild south westerly next week with quite a powerful stream of lows running to the north and north west of the UK. That’s quite a change and would be difficult to shift! UKMO/GEM/GFS looking similar at 120hrs and to my untrained eye those synoptics don’t look great for cold thereafter although GEM does go on to build a continental feed albeit underwhelming. i appreciate that these are just one set of deterministic runs so we await the ensembles but the potential for cold to develop during second half of February seems to be waning despite the favourable background signals being discussed. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to end up with more of the same, exceptional mild temps on face value of this evenings output, next week has that possibility (again!) This winter is a bust for my locale and I’ve pretty much given up on anything materialising now.

Some really excellent posts on here this afternoon especially @Tamara& @Catacol. Thank you! Such interesting analysis and it will be interesting to see how events unfold during February. @Dennis, please keep posting. I too really enjoy reading these!

Heights remaining stubbornly persistent throughout the 6z ensembles to our south and south west up until roughly the 10 day point when there are signs of this retreating west which allows some attempts at a northerly flow and lowering of heights to our east. Too far out for any confidence and the cold patterns that do follow don’t inspire hugely as those heights are never too far away from creeping back towards the UK. At least there are hints of a pattern change towards the end of the 10 day period, just about whether that gains momentum or fizzles out. Personally, my confidence is pretty low for February now having read the mixed analysis on here the last few days.

I thought the overnight ECM ensembles had taken a step back with less cold members in the latter stages compared to yesterday’s 12z. More members inclined to extend high 850’s which suggest an extension of heights to our south over Europe and maintaining mild to very mild temperatures. Not what I was hoping to see. GFS shows a bit more interest especially the control run which has a cold northerly in the latter stages thanks to a high pressure centred to the west of the UK and extending north.

Very interesting and helpful analysis, thank you. So, it comes down to whether we can remove that strong AO signal in order for heights to build sufficiently north. Background signals are there and as you have highlighted there are some tentative signs in the latter stages of output but all too far away to be taken seriously at this point. At present, it does seem as if it’s rinse and repeat up until end of first week of Feb. All a bit underwhelming…

Do they remain confident? I think we all know how quickly their longer term forecasts can change and if they are seeing the same background signals change as we are at the moment, I would expect their forecast to be updated. We shall see..

Yes, the background signals for a cold February have been diminishing over the last few days. I think I’m more confident of believing that we are looking at an early taste of Spring in the next 10 days or so than anything wintry especially with those strong heights persisting over central/southern Europe giving the potential for a long fetch south or southwesterly wind. February hasn’t felt like an especially wintry month for some considerable time.

But, haven’t the unexpected strat developments taken everyone by surprise this year including the experts? As per Catacol’s post above, this looks to be bouncing back to above average and could well override any trop led developments that would otherwise have led to cold developing in February. Also, I have found that the longer term MetO updates sometimes take a little while to update probably because they are waiting for a more difinitive signal, ie waiting to see whether the strengthening strat does indeed become the dominant factor over the next week or so. I guess we will have to wait and see on that one.

Agreed. I was thinking the same. Attempts for the high to ridge north and also height rises towards Scandinavia but with the PV set up over Greenland and a strong jet, it’s difficult to see how any ridge won’t be flattened. North potentially unsettled and cooler with the south drier and relatively mild or perhaps very mild depending on wind direction. If heights to the North East can establish perhaps things may become favourable but it looks tough against that strong jet.

That would tie in with forecast of strat PV to return to above average (GEFS mean) following SSW underway today. That would be problematic for HLB especially if PV establishes Greenland?

This is a superb post. Thank you for taking time to put this together in such an informed, clear and honest fashion. I always enjoy reading your analysis and your posts are always explained in easy to understand language despite the complexity of our weather. And you are always so humble especially when things don’t quite go to plan. We’ve been unlucky this time with snow chances frustratingly close this week for those south of the border. And the quick return of the westerlies is a bit of a kick in the proverbial too. But, I will keep returning to the models and the excellent posts written by the likes of you and hope that we get that next lucky roll of the dice into February.

I don’t think a continuation of the cold was necessarily expected but neither are the exceptionally mild charts currently being shown in the model output. What many were thinking is that the breakdown would not be as abrupt and would potentially offer a slower and possibly snowier transition to less cold conditions.

I don’t think I was quite expecting such an exceptionally mild looking set of charts to appear in the model output as is currently showing for next week. And there is nothing indicating at the moment that won’t be for an extended period, ie 10 days + (waxing and waning a bit). I take note and value those more knowledgeable members who are confident of a more blocked and cold pattern re-emerging end Jan into Feb. I do hope we get something of more note than this upcoming week before winter is out. At the moment, I’m looking at these charts and thinking they look all too familiar (not favourable to coldies) despite the favourable background signals that many have been discussing. Still, we should enjoy the short lived cold spell this week and the break from all that rain and some will no doubt be posting some wonderful winter photos that many of us will, sadly, have to enjoy vicariously.

Model fatigue definitely creeping in for me. On reflection, nothing much has changed, cold this week, more mobile the following week and then potential for more blocking to arise thereafter. But, it’s all been rather underwhelming to be honest especially next week. I expect it’s because the snow potential is very limited other than favoured locations and perhaps the far south with a degree of luck. I am also surprised and disappointed about the speed of the breakdown next weekend and the lack of battleground potential. And, we can’t rule out the prospect of some exceptionally mild weather the following week with those all too familiar Iberian heights showing in a number of the model outputs. I hope some get lucky this week out of this setup but overall it has been rather deflating and it feels like many have already moved on to the next chase..

The trend to colder is clearly there in all models from early next week. What is less clear is how far north any milder incursions will push. What does seem evident to me is that uncertainty has increased a notch today regards next week and this is evident tonight in the GEFS ensembles. I think to discount the GFS isn’t sensible, the trend is for more energy to be thrown up against the cold, maybe it has overestimated this but maybe not. I don’t think there is much clarity this evening. We just need to wait and see how this unfolds each day. It does seem as if it will be a high risk high reward scenario with some people getting very lucky and others very disappointed. The UK is in the boundary zone as usual, big differences for us living here but very small margins on a global scale. Having lived on the south coast during my childhood, can’t tell you how many times I’ve watched rain tumbling down outside only to watch how feet of snow have fallen midlands northwards..seems like it’s that kind of scenario setting up next week.

I share your pain ! Curse of the east coast. North Norfolk the same, been snowing heavily this morning but absolutely nothing has stuck! Those at elevation and away from east coast have certainly benefited. Unless we get deep cold uppers and low dew points, just impossible to get a decent snow event. Sadly, northerlies are just not potent enough these days. Can’t remember when one delivered here. Easterlies off a frigid continent are our best scenario. Hay ho…at least I got to see falling snow. I was doubtful of that a couple of days ago.

Mmm..I’m still feeling gloomy but very much from an imby perspective. I thought yesterday I might see a snowflake if lucky but even that is now looking very unlikely. Convective snow showers from the North Sea looking to stay offshore even in the north east where the met office have warnings out. We look to miss out on upcoming events further south and north too! Once upon a time a cold artic plunge from the north/north east would have put my location in a favoured spot but not to be this year..looking very good for many parts though as you highlight and hopefully your locale too being that bit more west and north.