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Stephen W

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  1. The longevity of this forecast mild spell looks impressive in its own right as much as I hate it during mid Feb. Those southerly winds are from such a long fetch. Next week’s resurgent high pressure looks like it could be even warmer. I sit here looking at these charts in astonishment. This has been one of the most disappointing winters in a very long time. The CET will be modified a bit if we can retain the coldish nights but even so could be approaching records if the warmth resumes next week. How many instances do we see a flip from warm to cold in the output? It always feels like it happen
  2. Agreed! A couple of cm’s would be sufficient for me. I’ve barely seen a flake. These charts are the polar opposite to what you want to see in Feb if you like cold. What is noticeable about this winter is the persistence of a pattern once it’s established. And that’s all I can see from the output at the moment. Another benign and mild spell and possibly exceptional. I never expected to see that this winter. I have only seen a flirtation with deep cold within the model output. The favourable MJO 8 signal is not yet gaining traction.
  3. Yes, it shows that March can still deliver but the synoptics have to be exceptional. What we saw last year was a rareity. This winter has been strange and seems to have had most forecasters perplexed given the background signals in place. It’s easy to knee jerk into a winter is over post but the reality is it is nearly over and for many it hasn’t delivered. We’re likely to lose the best part of Feb by the looks of it to a benign high pressure with an early taste of spring. Perhaps we’ll get lucky with a cold spell at the end but I’m no longer confident even if the MJO is looking favo
  4. After the weekend's windy/wet spell, high pressure settling around the UK seems the most likely scenario and has been pretty consistent now. It could be very mild depending how far south/east that ends up. Definitely no chance of it ridging north in the short term. Models seem to be playing around with some retrogression towards Greenland in FI but I have no confidence given the pattern so far this winter. It feels as if we're just feeding on the scraps. As far as the SSW impact, i guess if you live in the US, you'd say it was massive. Here, had you not known there was a SSW, perhaps we
  5. I hardly post in this forum. I've been sitting in the wings just reading all the posts and waiting and watching. I have to admit I'm at the point of model/snow fatigue now. The background signs have been so promising and whilst this week has delivered for some/many, overall it's felt disappointing here in my location. Being right on the coast means marginal events are just no good. Add to that, being on the extremity of any approaching sliders from the west, means they just don't get to us or if they do, have very little left on them. We need a potent northerly/easterly to really del
  6. That's really interesting and says it all. Marginality was definitely the case last night. I think it also shows the difference being inland makes too, especially around the coast of East Anglia. I'm on the North Norfolk coast and we had no lying snow whilst 10 miles inland had a light covering (and I mean light!).
  7. From my untrained eye, there does not seem to be much evidence of a displaced SPV appearing within the exetended modelling at the moment. If anything, it seems pretty much in situ with lots of energy being expelled at higher latitudes. The Azores high seems very prevalent, waiting in the wings to throw up a warm ridge and only occasionally pulling back to allow a short sharp burst from the NW. The ECM has a familiar MLB setting up over Europe at the far reaches but there is too much energy north to allow any higher level blocking. This MLB serves to discharge any potential cold south with mo
  8. But surely there are other factors in addition to MJO which are impacting and perhaps overriding the MJO signal. There must be as far as ECMWF is concerned.
  9. Hi Steve, Always enjoy reading your analysis. Surely though ECMWF is picking up on something so can't be completely discounted? I thought ECMWF was better for modelling of scandi heights? It has more energy in the northern arm of the jet which results in the high sinking. It's out of synch with other models yes but until they all come on board, it must be taken seriously? We've all been here before so we surely do need to see the ECMWF align before we get too excited at 144 and beyond..?
  10. I'm no expert but in the the start thread, I've read that the ECMWF was predicting a fairly swift recovery of the strat polar vortex. Isn't this what it shows this morning with a stronger northern arm of the jet present in the latter stages of the run?
  11. So are we seeing the modelling of a displaced vortex (as a result of stratospheric warming) over eastern Canada which is fuelling the jet and leading to the increase in Atlantic zonality?
  12. Mmm...I'm not liking the shift in the GFS ensembles this morning after 144. Whilst the ECM eps still show a cold cluster, they've been known to flip on mass. UKMO at 144 is also picking up on something with that low out to the west and doesn't look as good. I'd be very surprised to see the easterly develop after the initial cold shot. GFS has a lot of energy in the northern arm of the jet which results in a MLB again which could give us mild sw's or a cool continental feed depending where it settles. That seems to be the form horse this winter but hoping for something different and more inte
  13. I find following the long range forecasts produced on here interesting and informative. I think they've been clear that this is an atypical year in terms of how the atmosphere is responding to various drivers. What I would find useful is to have more of a running commentary from them when things change and why. I understand that this is what they will be endeavouring to do as the season progresses so I look forward to that. To my untrained eye, there is a bit of a kick to the atmosphere going on at the moment. The atlantic looks more active and things have had a bit of a shunt. D
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