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    Reigate Surrey

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  1. Without posting loads of charts I have to say the eastward progression of the high pressure placement , shunting the cold air for weekend east of us is quite frankly entirely predictable. Just obvious really . After many a year watching the models they are still totally useless in these situations . You have to seriously question the credibility of the GFS however many upgrades it has had . When was the last time closer to the time the high pressure moved more favourably towards Greenland ?
  2. I had reasonable hopes for this winter but this is probably it ! Not exactly a 1963 experience is it ? Good luck all for next 24hrs . You never know we might see some falling at least
  3. Quick question (not sure right thread) Whats the mildest winter 3 months CET for DJF? Using the Netweather CET average should be 5.1c + 4.2c +4.2c = 13.5c /3 = 4.5c. So far we are at 6.37c + 6.89c +6.97c = 20.23c / 3 = 6.74c ! Basically an Autumn! I feel we may have 'tipped' into a new era of climate change here I really hope we haven't. Just interested how this winter sits in the overall numbers. I can also see its been very wet!
  4. Bit of a flop . Your having a laugh ! Spent night down near Brighton kept awake all night by strong winds and lashing rain . Just driven up via Gatwick airport fields absolutely flooded cars in a field submerged and main roads flooded in parts and we’ve not even had all the rain yet !
  5. I didn’t bother looking at charts for 10 days after Steve Murr said winter over . Had a glance a day or so ago and I see everyone was on the northerly bandwagon . Now it disappeared and we are back to the new norm . According to the net weather CET we are about 4c above average 4c for gods sake . Personally I have not seen a single day below a max of 7c this month and no sign yet of a frost . It’s more like October
  6. Can I ask a fairly straight forward question?. We are often told here by certain posters not to compare each GFS run but compare each like for like run. .i.e the 6z with yesterdays 6z etc. Each model run uses I am understanding different parameters? As such they will vary enormously in the mid to long run especially . So.........my question is .......is it possible to compare say the last run with the days before to get a balanced view of subtle changes? And if so where can you show this? I can't seem to see you can on netweather or any of the other sites. I am happy to be pointed in the direc
  7. I have to question the netweather CET if I am honest . Try telling Joe Public that August is a scorcher 2.42c above an average August . Bearing in mind in simplistic terms taking the average maximum and minimum predicted for the next 10 days we would be looking at about 16c max which bearing in mind I am in the south east surely means the CET must come right down . I don’t buy this low diurnal range of temperature . I can’t even think we have had a warm first 10 days of August : something must surely be wrong
  8. Right I'm sticking these charts in here . Courtesy of Meteociel. I'm not smart enough to calculate the area covered by -28hpa but to my eye there looks less with recent decades. I've picked todays date from last 7 decades on todays date . Is this just a trick of the eye? to me there looks a lot less in recent decades of really cold air in Arctic regions hence what I was banging on about
  9. I'm gonna post some charts in the general winter discussion thread , just what I think
  10. No not at all . In fact I include the USA. One polar vortex outbreak in USA does not equal a cold winter. You may as well pick out Siberia . Question overall has the USA and Canada had a colder than average Winter? I'm looking at overall northern hemisphere cold distribution and there is less of it to go round
  11. Well I suggest this thread is retired. The climate has changed to such an extent that I would go so far as to say the models , particularly long range are now not really of much use . I was looking at historical northern hemisphere winter charts the other day and I am of the opinion that the cold air has diminished over arctic areas . Consequently (my gut feeling) there is simply less colder air to make it to our latitude . If for example temperatures in the Arctic are say 3c warmer than it doesn’t take much science to realise that whatever airmass arrives will be up to that warmer. Result c
  12. I find it very annoying that Basingstoke less than 50 miles away gets pounded by snow and here in Reigate sod all .
  13. I am not sure what mind bending drugs people are on at present but I am looking at the charts and thinking that all I can see is a continuation of pretty much nothing. No HLB , nothing at all YET from the SSW and we are basically at the end of January . No snow at all for southern areas. I will personally eat my hat and buy a pint for members on here if the channel low delivers for the SE. I'd put it at about a 1:50 chance so I have already written it off. In the meantime we are heading into February. I think a dose or realism is needed in here .
  14. Just looked at archive don't remember it being particularly impressive. I was thinking for a real proper one of a week or so you probably need to go back 25 years plus
  15. Quick question , when was the last year we had a blocking anticyclone to our north east in January that lasted a reasonable length of time? I can't remember one!
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