Uncle_Barty

Not a chance! 1800 reading today: 142.4

The 2000z reading last night was 136.6 = highest since mid June 2015. This cycle properly ramping up now.

1700 solar flux reading 121.6, highest of the cycle so far, though this may be flare-enhanced.

X1.0 flare around 1540z today. Looks very likely to be earth-directed.

My September mean remains at 18.0c (17.3 for August). With this outlook, I just wonder how much that average will come down.

Favourites Mid-May to Mid-August. High summer, or the promise of. April. Things starting to grow, days properly lengthening. Late Feb/Early March. That feeling of knowing the worst of the winter darkness is behind us. Worst. November. Clocks have gone back, it's getting dark and dank, and you know you still have the whole of bloody winter ahead of you. Hate it hate it hate it. December/Jan. Winter. Enough said. Just the feeling of wanting to get through to spring without too much weather disruption, footy fixtures getting buggered about with and so on. Though if a nice fat Bartlett takes up residence, things arn't so bad. 1988/9 winter was quite bearable in that regard

Is this a reference to the MJO moving through Phase 3 into Phase 4? Or perhaps I have the wrong end of the stick, as this still suggests a lack of convection over the E Pacific (cold SST anomaly/Nina) confirming the pattern rather than temporarily diffusing it?

Whats the difference between a negative and a positive nountain torque event? I'd just assumed mountain torque events in general tended to contribute to a lower AAM.....

Thank you Tamara. Quick Q - where does one find the GWO charts? Looks like NOAA have stopped publishing them.

Thank you once again, Tamara. Just to aid my understanding here.. from your post above: (1) Are you referring to the MJO here? (2) This is a reference to the waving jet-stream? Is a Kelvin wave (atmosphere) connected to the MJO, or are they different processes? I am assuming that the La Nina pattern is driving the default Atlantic ridge/ NW Euro trough, with a reasonably strong MJO event (and/or other factors) temporarily disturbing that pattern? I also read in past years that there may be, at times, a "decoupling" of the atmosphere from the ENSO state.. what drives that? Thanks

Matt Hugo pouring cold water on any suggestions of a better outlook on Twitter. Tropics MJO/La Nina pointing towards a "disctintly average - poor" August.

exactly this. Better to look at the clusters. I usually pretty much ignore the mean.

Of course, what could well happen is that the Scandi high is corrected east with time, and if the Azores ridge amplifies into the Atlantic, we'll be left with the limpet trough over us.

Matt Hugo on Twitter trying to pour cold water on those hoping for much of an improvement going forward... "Caution required over this signal for high pressure to build into the British Isles from the W through late June...We are still about to see a trend towards a -ve AAM regime. A more changeable/unsettled pattern still remains more likely towards months end/early July..."

It was quite mixed here. Very poor June, decent first half of July, then the rest of the summer was quite mixed. Got a lot worse the further north you went, IIRC

last November: Mean max 12.9. mean min 8.1 Mean 10.5 Rain: 58mm This May to date: mean max 13.9, ,ean min 7.7, mean 10.6. Rain: 64mm Not too dissimilar with one "freak" day of 18c this week helping the mean max. At least there looks to be an upward trend in the models.. perhaps the background signals hinted at by Tamara a few days ago are starting to have an effect.

In 25 years of keeping records, I have NEVER failed to reach 21c / 70f before the end of May. That record definitely under threat this year.

This thread http://skywavesdx.org/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=7925 will give some information. Wikipedia and other sources can also give more info. As for the effect on the weather - some are of the opinion that low solar activity = more blocked / colder winters. I'm not convinced, personally. If anyone has any more questions, I'm happy to answer them.

Updated the Solar Cycle Progress thread, including Jan and Feb data, here ** Solar Cycle 25 Progress thread ** - Welcome to the Skywaves DX forum SKYWAVESDX.ORG

We had a dusting today. Where I work, the dusting just disappeared yet no sign of melting. Google "sublimation"......

I've had rain down here on several occasions with uppers of -8.

It is foolish to call a victory for one model over another at 6 days out in this setup. FI probably at 72h at the moment. Wait till it verifies.......

I don't actually enjoy cold weather at all. Give me a nice fat Bartlett and a blowtorch SW'ly all winter long so far as I'm concerned. A big freeze always interesting from a weather POV of course. As for snow this weekend... looks very likely to be the wrong side of marginal down here, except well inland.

Indeed... unless the heights around Iberia shift, it's very difficult indeed to get cold air over the southern part of the UK at the very least. Not seen a flake of snow yet this winter in these parts.., not expecting that to change any time soon.

If we get a low stagnating over us that starts off on the cold side, it will likely only get colder over time at this time of year. I don't think snow chances can be written off for anyone, though in my locale it will always be marginal at best.. yet to see a flake of snow this winter.