Uncle_Barty
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Netweather Rain Radar archive
Uncle_Barty replied to Uncle_Barty's topic in Help, support and feedback
Thank you, Paul -
Hello, There used to be a rain radar archive on here - does it still exist? THanks.
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Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I remember thick fog in the mornings during the September 1982 heatwave. Clear nights and no wind ripe conditions for radiation fog, to give it its proper name. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That would take some doing here. August mean was 17.5c here, my Sept record going back to 1996 (set in 2021) is 17.2c. I don't know if we've ever had a CET warmer in Sept than the Aug that preceded it. -
Temperature inversion leading to long distance reception of VHF signals. Radio amateurs make use of these condidtions to make longer distances on VHF - I once exceeded 1600km for one contact made on 144Mhz under anticyclonic conditions. Same sort of scenario that led to TV stations broadcasting messages about co-channel reception and "do not adjust your TV set!" Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99056-model-output-discussion-mid-summer-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4914600
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Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Temperature inversion leading to long distance reception of VHF signals. Radio amateurs make use of these condidtions to make longer distances on VHF - I once exceeded 1600km for one contact made on 144Mhz under anticyclonic conditions. Same sort of scenario that led to TV stations broadcasting messages about co-channel reception and "do not adjust your TV set!" -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don't know about the potential heat, but the high T850s and a cooler undercut could lead to some pretty special radio conditions next week, for those who are so inclined.... -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed, the monthly average pressure for Sept/Oct/Nov 2002 here was 1019.2 / 1010 / 1004 -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agreed... I was referring to country-wide, as I recognise we've done relatively ok down here. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I make it 8 - 1/8/15/22/29 July, 5/12 August is 7 so far, though the 1st wasnt that bad on the south coast. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That is the problem - and as Chris A pointed out a few posts ago - we need these improvements to get to 5 days away before we can take them seriously. I'd go further and add .."with cross model support". I am starting to understand some of the basics a little better - but it is disappointing to see posters who add the global picture, being dismissed by some in that manner. I'm not sure we will ever know why the ocean-atmospheric coupling in the Pacific did not happen as most expected, but it is very poor form to shoot the messengers here. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Eruption was April 2010. I would strongly question any real correlation between low solar activity and cold winters. I can expand on that, but not here. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The lack of atmospheric coupling of the El nino might reduce its intensity? -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
it's a bit like scoring from a dodgy 95th minite penalty. When you're losing 6-0.... -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
August was dreadful that year, the wettest of the century in Scotland, IIRC. I don't think the pattern was dissimilar to what is being progged now. Summer as a whole was different to this year, poor June and a rather mixed July. I bet the Manchester summer index was pretty ropey that year. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Quick question with the QBO chart - blue= Easterly, brown = westerly? or the other way round? Thanks. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I usually pay very little attention to the mean - the clusters are a lot more important. you could, say, have one cluster with a high to the north, low to the south, and another with the opposite. The mean would likely show a nondescript pattern which would reflect neither cluster. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's the repeated weekend lows and the resulting ruining or mass cancellation of outdoor events that will taint this month most. It looks like we will have another low this weekend - 4th one in a row. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This. Here in Bournemouth, it's probably been no worse than "changeable" with just below average temps, albeit with the last two days being pretty much a writeoff for any meaningful outdoor summer activities. Looking at the models, that looks likely to continue for the foreseeable. It's clearly been far worse up north, as is often the case in these setups. -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I guess the lesson to work out here is *why* there is this disconnect between the oceanic base state and the atmosphere, whether there were any signs of this beforehand, and if/how this can be foreseen in future. In any case, I've always regarded the various teleconnecions (as excellently set out by Tamara and others... when I get the chance, I still need to get a proper handle on them.. been looking on Youtube for some "dummies" guide on how to read the various charts,) as a guide as to what may be down the line, and certainly not as a firm prediction. I still remember 2011, when after a poor June, general hope from the various indicators was for a much better July based on seasonal wavelength changes... then the goalposts were moved and we ended up with a crap July anyway. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It is exactly the content from the likes of yourself and others, that I come on here to read. Your posts are massively appreciated here. I am usually one of the 'silent majority'. There are a number of posters that emotionally react to each twist and turn in the MO; I skim past those. In the light of the very useful posts looking at global patterns, I would pay very little attention to the NWP past about 7-8 days until they begin to show a consistent pattern, and with a reasonable amount of inter-model agreement. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Exactly... and I've seen this happen several times before (and I now understand better why that is) - when a pattern change comes "apparently" Out of the Blue in the model output, when before we'd all be Standin' in the Rain, then Mr Blue Sky arrives like a Wild West Hero. And it won't be a surprise when the Sweet Talkin' Woman above kept telling us to keep the faith. Meanwhile, the Big Wheels of model output keep on turning, and promise us some Summer and Lightning further down the line. This post will either puzzle you , or get you saying "that is a brilliant album...." -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
July mean here so far is 17.6°c - 2020 and 2015 were both lower (17.2 and 17.1 respectively). 2012 was a pitiful 16.2°c, dragged down by some very poor temps in the first 10 days or so. On only 4 days of that month (around the 23rd) did each day's mean exceed the July average mean temp here (17.9) since 2000. Whats the colour decode for the other ones, please? -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don't know if this happened in 1988 - July was relentlessly cool and cyclonic after a reasonable June. We've not had a colder July since. In my own records back to 1996, only in the pitiful summer of 2007 were June and July even equal (both 16.6c). About to break my June record by more than a whole °C (18.7c, will probably drop a bit.) I don't know what an effect the anomalously warm seas in the Atlantic is having on skewing model output, but there must be a chance that they are making them less reliable in the meduim term, at least. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Uncle_Barty replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Must be the summer equivilant of The mo dern winter GFS looks unsettled again this m orning, seemingly having the same low parked north of, or over the UK from next weekend for days on end.