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Uncle_Barty

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Everything posted by Uncle_Barty

  1. Cos we all suspect the models will show green snot parked over the UK again in the morning.....
  2. Looks more akin to the start of the summer of 2011 - a lot of UK troughing in the first half of June. I was having soem external work done at home at that time, and I am having all my guttering, soffits and facias done next week! What happens beyond then, who knows. The early part of June '07 was actually quite pleasant.
  3. In my view, there is nothing in the output to suggest much more than a brief cold snap in prospect. There is no real sign of high lat blocking in the forseeable, and that is a problem for those hoping for a decent spell of proper winter weather. That is not to say that things could look much more hopeful on that score seven days from now, however. Things can change quite quickly.
  4. Thanks. "Underneath" I assume you mean on the underside of the top surface. Think I might hold back for now then. I have seen images of ultrasonic anemometers that are four tubes facing each other with no top surface - I guess they are not likely to sufer this problem? None available "Davis compatible" so far as I can see though.
  5. Hello, I am considering replacing my standard issue Davis anemometer (which connects to my Vantage Pro 2) with a compatible ultrasonic one, before it inevitably fails at some point. I am looking at the LCJ Ultrasonic anemometer - https://www.weatherstations.co.uk/lcj-ultrasonic-anemometer.htm I have not read any reviews yet from users, could really do with some sort of feedback before I consider taking the plunge.
  6. Thanks again, Tamara. One thing - can anyone point me towards a quick-look glossary of the various acronyms used in the posts talikng about teconnections? For example, CCKW.. not a clue what it stands for or what it means? Just a decode of the acronym and a brief outline of what it is will do me. I can then read further if I want.
  7. I wouldn't say it's unlikely.. ok the models are not currently showing it, but the teleconnections mentioned in Tamara's and others' threads have strongly suggested that such a scenareo could happen, with the suggested pattern being Sceuro high and Atlantic trough... and they've been pretty much spot on so far. If that pattern asserts itself, then it's game on for some exceptional temps. Who knows what could happen 10-12 days from now?
  8. I think the question for me is while the pattern is set (HP to east, LP in Atlantic), how much scope for adjustment east or west of the pattern is there? If it backs west a little, then that will make a big difference to temps and bring much more of the country into the hot weather and increase the chances of some serious (35c+) heat. What would have to happen with the indicators (angular momentum etc.) that @Tamara and others speak of to facilitate this?
  9. That run probably won't verify, but the general synoptic setup in the various models are showing some blowtorch possibilities. I would put it no stronger than that at the moment. SM is not suggesting that it's nailed on, but it's not entirely without support in the ensembles.
  10. @Weather-history - or anyone else for that matter, Is there an online source of daily maxima and rainfall for anywhere, for the summer of 1976?
  11. Simiular to August 1997? That was wet and warm and IIRC came near the start of an El Nino event.
  12. Backing up Tamara's recent postings... I have taken the recent model output beyond seven days, showing the troughing, with a warehouse of salt for that reason. In fact, I don't take any big pattern change seriously unless it is showing consistently, and getting closer with each run instead of staying 10 days out like a mirage.
  13. It was displaced because the HLB quickly retrogressed west from Scandinavia, taking away the easterly flow.
  14. Au Contraire. I think Tamara has called the progress of this summer pretty well so far, both in explaining why she thinks will turn out the way they will, and also how things could go wrong. Her posts make fascinating reading.
  15. Yes, thats what concerns me. I think it was that scenario that kicked in the summer of 2015 from the start of July onwards. Continent hot and settled while we were under the influence of the jet caused by a large thermal gradient in the W Atlantic. This might just be a blip similar to what we had a couple of weeks ago, we shall see!
  16. End of June/beginning of July change from settled to mobile not a good time for a pattern change as it often sets the tone for the rest of the summer. Await the next missive from Tamara to see what the teleconnections are saying.
  17. 2012 went downhill from as early as the 9th April. Even the best of summers have an unsettled spell at some point - 1976 had a somewhat unsettled mid-part of June, 1989 had a horrid spell in the 1st half of June (coinciding with the 2 weeks I had off being the only time I got...) and 2003 had a dodgy spell in late July. Not too concerned at the moment, given Tamara's words in recent days, but the fact that it's an "8" year is always at the back of my mind
  18. Was it CFS showing a sharp breakdown at the start of June a short time ago? I hope the anamoly charts are wrong, but...... year ending in 8......
  19. Temps rose to 2-3c late last night and have been sat there since then. See graphs in the link to my station in my sig below. Gradual thaw has now set in. Going shopping shortly, assuming Castlepoint is open.....
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