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Everything posted by Uncle_Barty

  1. This thread http://skywavesdx.org/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=7925 will give some information. Wikipedia and other sources can also give more info. As for the effect on the weather - some are of the opinion that low solar activity = more blocked / colder winters. I'm not convinced, personally. If anyone has any more questions, I'm happy to answer them.
  2. Updated the Solar Cycle Progress thread, including Jan and Feb data, here ** Solar Cycle 25 Progress thread ** - Welcome to the Skywaves DX forum SKYWAVESDX.ORG
  3. We had a dusting today. Where I work, the dusting just disappeared yet no sign of melting. Google "sublimation"......
  4. I've had rain down here on several occasions with uppers of -8.
  5. It is foolish to call a victory for one model over another at 6 days out in this setup. FI probably at 72h at the moment. Wait till it verifies.......
  6. I don't actually enjoy cold weather at all. Give me a nice fat Bartlett and a blowtorch SW'ly all winter long so far as I'm concerned. A big freeze always interesting from a weather POV of course. As for snow this weekend... looks very likely to be the wrong side of marginal down here, except well inland.
  7. Indeed... unless the heights around Iberia shift, it's very difficult indeed to get cold air over the southern part of the UK at the very least. Not seen a flake of snow yet this winter in these parts.., not expecting that to change any time soon.
  8. If we get a low stagnating over us that starts off on the cold side, it will likely only get colder over time at this time of year. I don't think snow chances can be written off for anyone, though in my locale it will always be marginal at best.. yet to see a flake of snow this winter.
  9. Exactly. It's why I don't take too much notice of the mean (other than for a quick comparison with the op), but wait for the clusters.
  10. Any proper cold is ~10 days+ away yet. And that is only on one model (albeit they've been consistent) and ECM showing some tentative building blocks near the end of their run. Interesting viewing for sure, but coldies shouldnt be getting too excited until and unless there is cross model agreement at 72h maximum. I've seen too many forecasted cold spells fall apart at the last hurdle. over the years... Don't take model runs in isolation either, look at them all and look at trends. I know what will happen if the GFS p has a wobble..... Angry Mourinho.mp4
  11. Updated the Cycle 25 Progress thread here : ** Solar Cycle 25 Progress thread ** - Welcome to the Skywaves DX forum SKYWAVESDX.ORG Suspect we will have a couple of quieter weeks with sfi dropping back into the 70s and perhaps a few spotless days once the current regions disappear west. No sign of any renewed activity coming over the eastern limb as yet.
  12. It's working again now. 2200z values last night: Solar flux 89.4 (1au 86.5) WWV reporting 86, which will be the 2000z value.
  13. Here; Geophysical Alert - WWV text | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center WWW.SWPC.NOAA.GOV Solar flux is Updated once a day after 2100z and is the "raw" unadjusted value. The last month's data can be found here: https://solen.info/solar/indices.html I note that since the 16th, only integer values have been reported, so I guess something is up.
  14. Interesting theory this... will make intriguing viewing to see how this cycle unfolds. I have posted a more detailed analysis and my thoughts of this cycle so far here: ** Solar Cycle 25 Progress thread ** - Welcome to the Skywaves DX forum SKYWAVESDX.ORG
  15. Forecasts of possibly G3 storms with a K of up to 7 over the next couple of days. Keep those eyes peeled, especially up north. This is a result of the C7.4 flare on Monday which generated a full halo CME aimed at Earth. Solar activity taking a slight breather now as sfi declines, but a returning active region will rotate into view in 3-4 days.
  16. 1800 sfi values: Observed : 98.0 Adjusted: 95.1 There was a long duration C5 (or so ) flare in progress at the time which may have elevated the numbers. Suspect the 2000 readings will be lower, perhaps around the 90 mark.
  17. Yes, that could well be it. Good shout. I hadn't thought of that.
  18. Shortest is 9 years - back in the 1700s. More recently, Cycle 22 lasted 10 years. Cycle 24 was a little strange in that it had 2 peaks.. the first peak was dominated by activity from the northern hemisphere, the seconbd was dominated by activity from the southern hemisphere. Had the two hemispheres peaked together, we probably would have had a rather higher peak overall..... Interestingly... the burst of activity in recent weeks has mostly come from the southern hemisphere.... given that SH activity has lagged behind (in terms of time) NH, one would expect NH to be leading the c
  19. November stats: Monthly Sunspot Number 34.0. This value not reached in Cycle 24 til Sept 2010, 21 months after solar minimum. Monthly solar flux 90.1. This value not reached in Cycle 24 until Feb 2011, 26 months after solar minimum. November was Month 12 of cycle 25. Too early to say whether this is a flash in the pan, or a pointer towards a substantially bigger cycle this time.
  20. Produced an almost full halo CME as well.. quite a long duration event. I was listening around on 40m at the time, at the time of the flare, almost all signals disappeared as the blackout took effect. 2000z solar flux 116 tonight - another Cycle 25 high.
  21. yes, it;s been quite an abrupt rise in activity which continues to gather pace. Quite different to the start of C24 thus far. M4 flare in progress cant remember if it's the largest of the new cycle... appears to be right on the southeast limb from a region just rotating into view (probably old region 2781), so it's unlikely to be geoeffective.
  22. Ah, I see what you mean - ok. Time will tell if this is an early freakishly high burst of activity for this stage of a low solar cycle similar in strength to the last one, or a sign that this cycle will be bigger than most are expecting. Cycle 22, for example, rebounded very quickly in 1987, but that was a much bigger cycle after a shallower minimum (annual mean solar flux was around 72sfu during that min) I have put a more detailed post about this recent minimum, and what we can possibly expect in the coming years, on a radio forum here: ** Solar Cycle 25 Progress thread
  23. Jeff.. where do you get that figure from, please?? Source?
  24. Number of spotless days by year: 2019 total: 228 days (75%) (up to October '19) 2018 total: 221 days (61%) 2017 total: 104 days (28%) 2016 total: 32 days (9%) 2015 total: 0 days (0%) 2014 total: 1 day (<1%) 2013 total: 0 days (0%) 2012 total: 0 days (0%) 2011 total: 2 days (<1%) 2010 total: 51 days (14%) 2009 total: 260 days (71%) 2008 total: 268 days (73%) So yes, once things kicked off a bit more in early 2011, the spotless days stopped. 2010 comprised the 2nd year of Cycle 24, yet still had 51 spotless days. It remains to be seen if 2021 will have that
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