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Uncle_Barty

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    sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences
    Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign

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  1. We had a dusting today. Where I work, the dusting just disappeared yet no sign of melting. Google "sublimation"......
  2. I've had rain down here on several occasions with uppers of -8.
  3. It is foolish to call a victory for one model over another at 6 days out in this setup. FI probably at 72h at the moment. Wait till it verifies.......
  4. I don't actually enjoy cold weather at all. Give me a nice fat Bartlett and a blowtorch SW'ly all winter long so far as I'm concerned. A big freeze always interesting from a weather POV of course. As for snow this weekend... looks very likely to be the wrong side of marginal down here, except well inland.
  5. Indeed... unless the heights around Iberia shift, it's very difficult indeed to get cold air over the southern part of the UK at the very least. Not seen a flake of snow yet this winter in these parts.., not expecting that to change any time soon.
  6. If we get a low stagnating over us that starts off on the cold side, it will likely only get colder over time at this time of year. I don't think snow chances can be written off for anyone, though in my locale it will always be marginal at best.. yet to see a flake of snow this winter.
  7. Exactly. It's why I don't take too much notice of the mean (other than for a quick comparison with the op), but wait for the clusters.
  8. Any proper cold is ~10 days+ away yet. And that is only on one model (albeit they've been consistent) and ECM showing some tentative building blocks near the end of their run. Interesting viewing for sure, but coldies shouldnt be getting too excited until and unless there is cross model agreement at 72h maximum. I've seen too many forecasted cold spells fall apart at the last hurdle. over the years... Don't take model runs in isolation either, look at them all and look at trends. I know what will happen if the GFS p has a wobble..... Angry Mourinho.mp4
  9. Updated the Cycle 25 Progress thread here : ** Solar Cycle 25 Progress thread ** - Welcome to the Skywaves DX forum SKYWAVESDX.ORG Suspect we will have a couple of quieter weeks with sfi dropping back into the 70s and perhaps a few spotless days once the current regions disappear west. No sign of any renewed activity coming over the eastern limb as yet.
  10. It's working again now. 2200z values last night: Solar flux 89.4 (1au 86.5) WWV reporting 86, which will be the 2000z value.
  11. Here; Geophysical Alert - WWV text | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center WWW.SWPC.NOAA.GOV Solar flux is Updated once a day after 2100z and is the "raw" unadjusted value. The last month's data can be found here: https://solen.info/solar/indices.html I note that since the 16th, only integer values have been reported, so I guess something is up.
  12. Interesting theory this... will make intriguing viewing to see how this cycle unfolds. I have posted a more detailed analysis and my thoughts of this cycle so far here: ** Solar Cycle 25 Progress thread ** - Welcome to the Skywaves DX forum SKYWAVESDX.ORG
  13. Forecasts of possibly G3 storms with a K of up to 7 over the next couple of days. Keep those eyes peeled, especially up north. This is a result of the C7.4 flare on Monday which generated a full halo CME aimed at Earth. Solar activity taking a slight breather now as sfi declines, but a returning active region will rotate into view in 3-4 days.
  14. 1800 sfi values: Observed : 98.0 Adjusted: 95.1 There was a long duration C5 (or so ) flare in progress at the time which may have elevated the numbers. Suspect the 2000 readings will be lower, perhaps around the 90 mark.
  15. Yes, that could well be it. Good shout. I hadn't thought of that.
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