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    Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland
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    Storm-force northeasterly(with a high tide!).Blizzards.Sunny summer

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  1. Read this: Typhoon Hagibis: Tokyo braced for battering as ‘worst storm in 60 years’ roars in | World news | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM Threat of widespread flooding and landslides compounded by earthquake in nearby Chiba prefecture
  2. Threat of the Cyclone currently in the Pacific Islands near Fiji heading either into Eastern Australia or down to Northern NZ in a few days time. Looking like being a biggie. Hope the islands don't cop it, it's slow-moving.
  3. Incredible drama, tragedy and everything else between with this historical super-storm (and the supporting acts) all week. You really couldn't make it up. To culminate in this slow, terrifying, theatrical turn towards Florida, and still complete uncertainty about what will follow in many ways is just about as astonishing as it gets. This storm is truly like some other worldly thing at this stage. If it proceeds to roll up along the Florida west coast I think we will have witnessed something that will go down as the most fantastical storm of all recorded time. In my humble opinion i
  4. Well yet another tease that had even more of us getting hopes up. It's certainly a pattern, that we read too much into too little evidence. It's also a pattern, since November, that is in fact predictable if you look over what has been the outcome of the forecasts since early november (and otherwise I would assume). The outcomes have shown us consistency in enough of the forecasts. We need to follow those. There will always be big surprises now and then in the weather, but overall, not.
  5. Well it looks like finally the (very, very) gradual shift in pattern over the last three months from mid-lat blocking over these islands and Europe to more cyclonic-influenced, and from split jet with dominant arm to the north to split jet with more emphasis south, is finally leading to more significant cold-potential. Perhaps it can be summed up more crudely as a very slow shunt in the overall pattern of systems to a position where they result in the cold that was going sometimes to East Europe and to NE of the American Continent being able to come over here, to some extent. Another p
  6. At the risk of being crude, uneducated, and generally out of my depth with the science, my broad impression of things from closely following the model outputs since the start of november, and leaving aside for the moment the (hugely insightful and educated) contributions and discussions, is that the consistent pattern has been resulting in a majority outcome of mid-lat anticyclonic blocking. This 'middle-ground' outcome seems clear, in that no dominant pattern of more extremely defined synoptics has emerged, during this long period. There has been a very gradual period of overall cooling i
  7. I've been looking at a pattern in the model forecasts that to me has existed through the autumn but of more relevance since the onset of the darkest months. to me this pattern has been consistent and the models have been overall correct - we remain, as we have done since early November, in a very very gradually cooling scenario. And the patterns predicted for the rest of the year continue overall that gradual, very gradual, cooling trend. The weather not surprisingly overall is very undramatic. This reflects the majority model output. We appear to be in a continuing trend of very gradual coo
  8. You would be right about 'certain types' of NE European anticyclonic set-ups. But those tend to be aligned and trending differently, and also to have very cold air entrenched. The current and projected situation shows alignment and trending that don't support a very cold and entrenched cold block of the type you suggest. There is a gradual build-up of something fairly cold but the trends otherwise tend to either not allow much if any cold to advect west or for the cold to pull away as milder air pushes in from the south and west. If the current GFS P were to come off, it does at least brin
  9. It's hard to credit that a region as small as the UK and Ireland could have such a diversity of temperature anomaly given as an average over 3 months. Looking also at France (cold east, milder west) and Spain, I wonder does it indicate a complex situation with HP often near the NW of these islands, low pressure over Spain and France, with bursts of east winds bringing cold across England. But not sustained or widespread? Or a settled scenario with alot of blocking close or over these islands and the east of England getting any colder air much more often than other areas. It certainly doesn't
  10. Isn't that just a surface high over Greenland in the GFS option? So that even if the other factors there all came off, there wouldn't be the ridging to Greenland from North Europe? ECM option more in line with the recent and current pattern, and neither options showing heights building towards Greenland. I think those show what some ECM output has been showing for the last 2 weeks and would indicate consistency in maintaining what resulted. In fact some of the ECM output a week or more ago showed ridging to Greenland. So currently no signal for that? The GFS has come a long way though from
  11. Yes agreed, in terms of the 'weather on the ground' I'd be happy to see the Azores ridge give us a bit of inversion in fresh Atlantic PM air. I also think that ridge, if it becomes established for two or three days, intensifying, might nudge the current stalemate on a bit. I don't know how, only because it would be something different to what we've had for a while. I could enjoy a more PM unsettled option at this stage, regardless of what it might mean in terms of progression further on. The long-range forecast from the British Met indicated a likelihood of 'cold very unsettled' and perhaps t
  12. There has never been any consistent modelling for real cold at all. Most output has pointed to exactly what we have, stalemate and continuing average weather overall. So the models have not been, nor are confused, nor have slumped or anything like that. Far too much emphasis on the inevitable few outputs that have shown potential cold synoptics developing. There is no real sign of change so that is what the output mostly is and that is the most likely outcome.
  13. The strat warming might help change things with the mid-lat block?
  14. No change really. Very gradual cool-down over north and central and east Europe. Is the stasis as it stands just indicative of the more positive AO? Will the ongoing block/stalemate and gradual cooling lead to some sort of change of orientation of the meridional set-up that is keeping us in this very average weather? Over European Continent even? Can't see it unless the mid-lat block also goes, which would surely mean the Atlantic comes further east. And I can't see the block really going for a while, or changing. At times it looks like going a bit more north, at times more south, it certain
  15. If the outcome of this week is HP building over and very close to these islands, I really hope we aren't headed for one of those '70's'-type winters where mid-lat blocking dominates for weeks on end. There have been winters where virtually nothing of interest happened, and last winter would look like a very exciting one in comparison to an average temp mid-lat HP-dominated one. Certainly the current forecasts and even the past 2-3 weeks have the look of a pattern that will stay, well, not very interesting weather-wise. Very middle-ground sort of stuff, unless as some are saying the changes
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