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mountain shadow

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Everything posted by mountain shadow

  1. Aye. North of Lough Neagh doing well, barely a flurry South of it.
  2. Flip me. I struggle to get those temperatures in the Summer!
  3. The showers are mainly rain and sleet Weegaz, just the tops of the hills getting snow at the moment.
  4. Indeed. The 528dm line doesn't actually clear the South of Ireland until Wednesday night, then the mild comes in Thursday night. So, this cold spell is essentially a one day wonder for most of Ireland. Certainly a long long way from what the models were showing a couple of days ago.
  5. Our window for snow has diminished day by day and now looks to be a brief 24 to 36 hour affair. Northern coastal areas should be good for a cm or two.
  6. According to Matt Hugo, they were shifted due to the Strat Warming! Yes, that's right. The one thing we look for all Winter has caused a potentially 2 to 3 week snowy cold spell to become a disappointing 36 hour cold and dry borefest.
  7. I actually wish it was a toppler as the flow is generally more unstable with more widespread snow and less marginal snow chances. Unfortunately in the current modelled scenario, the Northerly doesn't really take hold and we're left at the mercy of mild sectors in the flow.
  8. The problem is the thicknesses, we're only under sub 528dm from mid Wednesday to mid Friday so I fear any precipitation will be rain or sleet before then, unless you live up a hill. Fingers crossed and hopefully someone gets a decent flurry or two.
  9. This is far more likely than the deep bitter cold predicted by the teleconnections a few days ago. As I type, it is -20c in Kansas City which is a full 13 degrees further South than Manchester. The reality is, the real Winter killer is the Atlantic Ocean. Nothing more Nothing less.
  10. Well, I think it's more a case of understanding that a positive High Greenland anomaly does not necessarily mean a good snowy spell.
  11. Sure, there were tentative signs of deep prolonged cold about a week ago, and that went down the pan quickly. I have very little confidence in these GWO, EAMT, MT teleconnections as they only give a broad brushstroke of where highs and lows might be. What we see, is that a wee short wave can override these macro teleconnections and provide something far less potent.
  12. Not impossible at all. We are pretty much 90% certain where snow will fall and 100% where it won't for some.
  13. Even if you knew it only meant snow for mainly Scotland and zero for Gloucestershire?
  14. Dreadful 12zs. 3 or 4 days of a wee bit cold then back to mild, wet and windy.
  15. Horrendous ECM Op. If that's where we are at day ten you can write off two weeks after that.
  16. Some lovely rain for Northern Ireland right in the middle of the so called 'cold spell'. Can't wait.
  17. Met Office update looks appalling after all the teleconnections hype. Only scattered wintry showers with rain or sleet mid week. Absolute joke.
  18. Well, they follow the same models and teleconnections that we do, they are no better at forecasting into mid term than some of the great folk on here.
  19. Probably right by default though as it always ramps up the PV. The biggest failure for me is the GWO/EAMT/MT teleconnections which really sucked me in to a proper snow cold spell of a couple of weeks or more.
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