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mountain shadow

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Everything posted by mountain shadow

  1. mountain shadow
    Hi Catacol, a good post, but my first thoughts when I read it were "ok, ECM forecasting increased vorticity in the Greenland corridor of death in ten days time, however, we already have a strong Scandi high in place, so where will the energy from the increased vorticity go?, Under the block or over it?"I'm not sure we can answer that for certain yet.
  2. mountain shadow
    That's what I'm hoping for Steve, a nice slider West of my front door will do fine.
  3. mountain shadow
    There is nothing in the output which suggest any south westerlies of Azores origins. I think the two options you have highlighted very well, either an Easterly or a North Westerly. Of course if those two air masses combine over the UK then its a snow machine KABOOM time.
  4. mountain shadow
    Certainly any cold is only likely to come from the East or North West as the NAO is forecast to remain positive for a good while yet. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml At least the AO forecast shows a good few member going negative indicating that at the very least cold air will be leaving the Pole for mid latitudes.. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml Zonal mean temperatures over the Pole at 30hpa are at least back to average, so hopefully the PV will be packing less punch, have perhaps the models been overplaying the PV recently? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/30mb9065.gif
  5. mountain shadow
    Bring on the maunder minimum. Inuits canoeing up the River Don indeed.. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-25824673
  6. mountain shadow
    Hi Ronan, All eyes remain on the Stratosphere at the moment, I reckon no real cold until mid February at the earliest although there may be the odd day with wintriness.
  7. mountain shadow
    You have to love the GFS, look at the jump to a flatter pattern as soon as it hits low resolution..comical http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140120/18/192/h500slp.png to http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140120/18/216/h500slp.png
  8. mountain shadow
    Jet going South, almost there.. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140120/18/177/h500slp.png
  9. mountain shadow
    If the low undercuts looks what's arriving from the North East! http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140120/18/165/h850t850eu.png
  10. mountain shadow
    http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140120/18/144/h500slp.png Heavy wintry showers pushing in from the West, certainly won't feel mild.
  11. mountain shadow
    This to me is the key to any prolonged cold spell. The ever present Canadian PV starts sending a portion Eastwards, If we can get some decent amplification behind the low and a full separation of this portion from the main vortex, I believe the Azores High will ridge in behind to connect with the Artic/Scandi High. Amplification looks good here. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140120/18/132/h500slp.png
  12. mountain shadow
    I'm pretty certain those turning colder at the end of the week forecasts were made prior to the 12z.
  13. mountain shadow
    I didn't think upper heights like that were possible over the pole in late January? AO would be through the floor. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140117/12/264/npsh500.png
  14. mountain shadow
    Stop looking East for snow, if its coming, its coming from the North, been that way for a week now.. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140117/12/204/h500slp.png The same signal three runs in a row, with proper Greenland heights and getting closer too. And we all know GFS is great at Northerlies. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140117/12/240/h500slp.png
  15. mountain shadow
    Right on queue for the end of the month too.
  16. mountain shadow
    Agreed Cecil, You can also see shortwave energy spilling past Southern Greenland, which is normally a game over for Easterlies. The Scand High is however proving stubborn to shift, that's for sure.
  17. mountain shadow
    Shannon Entropy was the buzz word on here last Winter thanks to Ian. It basically means chaos theory rules and no certainty can be given to one outcome or another. Another less pleasing phrase, might be, fence sitting.
  18. mountain shadow
    No.
  19. mountain shadow
    And why has low pressure dominated around Iceland?Because the PV has been vigorous and at home in NE Canada spitting energy Eastwards relentlessly. This Winter so far has had times of decent amplification of the jet over the Eastern Pacific and the CONUS but little has changed here because of where the PV has located.Until the PV shifts and there are signs in the Stratospheric output that it will towards month end, then we are stuck where we are.
  20. mountain shadow
    Whilst there is still a long way to go, you must be pleased that there are growing signs of the back end Winter cold you forecast?As an aside, I love the positivity in this thread compared to tropospheric model output one.
  21. mountain shadow
    And more importantly we are no longer at T+15 days, the relative warming is getting closer. Looking at the likely upper PV location in ten to fifteen days I think we should be looking for a tropospheric Northerly for The British Isles not an Easterly.
  22. mountain shadow
    Can't wait to see the global warming spin on this.
  23. mountain shadow
    If I knew the answer to that, i'd be a millionaire. :-0 Hopefully the warming signals increase and continue and we may start to see the tropospheric model output beginning to react in about a week to ten days time at the outer range of its output.
  24. mountain shadow
    Zonal throughout, temperatures average to slightly below. Any wintryness confined to hills and mountains.
  25. mountain shadow
    Ben, The warming is in the upper Stratosphere. If it does actually occur by the end of the month then the downwelling can take anything from a couple of days to a few weeks. So a date of around 10th February is my guess before colder weather arrives. That is of course if the warming verifies.
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