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mountain shadow

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Everything posted by mountain shadow

  1. mountain shadow
    I think the weather warnings should be for rain tomorrow, not snow. Looks very wet and miserable.
  2. mountain shadow
    feb1991blizzard Are you looking forward to a UK high then?
  3. mountain shadow
    MJB No, it isn't. There long range forecast has been promising Northerlies for weeks, buy keeps getting delayed.
  4. mountain shadow
    Has there been a Winter where forecasts from the Professionals have been so poor? The Met Office have been promising Northerlies for weeks without them materialising.
  5. mountain shadow
    I think we should be prepared for let down tomorrow. It looks more of a slush fest than snow fest and for lower ground rain for sure. Even for me at 400ft ASL it looks slushy.
  6. mountain shadow
    Penrith Snow I do not agree entirely with your post. The Angular Momentum theories are very real and do impact our weather, the issue I think is that the projections of the MJO AAM anomalies etc now have to be of significant magnitude to overcome the expanded Hadley cell into Iberia. Twenty, maybe even ten years ago, I think this Winter would have been very cold and Wintry, but we are over the tipping point. Spain is becoming a desert.
  7. mountain shadow
    It currently is not looking good for all those long range forecasts and teleconnections that pointed towards proper Winter arriving in mid February. Even the mighty Met Office have been promising Winter to arrive from mid month with Northerlies, but there is little sign of that. The Iberian High curtesy of the expanded Hadley cell now rules supreme with proper Winter now confined to Scotland.
  8. mountain shadow
    Lukesluckybunch Indeed. Zero sign of favourable heights to the North by mid month with the permanent Iberian high remaining supreme. I guess we now have to wait until late February into March for the favourable heights to materialise.
  9. mountain shadow
    WINTRY WALES I hope not. I would rather it stays just where it is thanks very much.
  10. mountain shadow
    6z GFS has 48 hours of snow for some parts of the Irish Midlands and Ulster on Thursday and Friday.
  11. mountain shadow
    Dennis Met Office have now added Northern Ireland to their weather warnings for snow indicating the GFS is closer to where the snow line will be.
  12. mountain shadow
    Ever Hopeful Metcheck get their information from the GFS i think, si it changes every 6 hours. Met Office have just updated their warnings to include Northern Ireland! Just a warning though, I think it will be sleet at sea level in Carrick, if the precipitation arrives at all.
  13. mountain shadow
    Incredibly, with only 48 hours to go, still no agreement on how far North the snow gets on Thursday. Central Ireland looks guaranteed a really good amount though.
  14. mountain shadow
    We often worry about model differences at plus day 7 and we can't get agreed at 3 days. What hope do we have getting three weekly forecasts correct?
  15. mountain shadow
    The latest forecast by the Met Office is for only a small chance of snow here on Thursday. That indicates that the GFS can be ignored and the snow line will be South of Northern Ireland.
  16. mountain shadow
    frosty ground like a dog with a bone. Cannot be right surely?
  17. mountain shadow
    Looking good for Thursday on latest forecast..
  18. mountain shadow
    Benny123 Now showing the snow band further North.
  19. mountain shadow
    Again no concensus on the 0z with 100s of miles difference between the possible snow line on the models. The GFS favours towards Ulster with UKMO favouring towards Munster, the ECM in between, so if I lived in Central Ireland, I think that may be the sweet spot.
  20. mountain shadow
    Still no concensus on where the snow will be next week. Could be Portrush, could be Skibbereen and everywhere in between.
  21. mountain shadow
    Certainly looks like snow around somewhere later next week, but ad usual the models all over the place.
  22. mountain shadow
    Stuie Even with today's modern computer power we still cannot get a concensus on a low only 4 days from now.
  23. mountain shadow
    To my surprise the snowy spell is still there this morning, still a lot can go wrong though.
  24. mountain shadow
    Pub run gives us 3 days of snow next week, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday!. It will be gone in the morning.
  25. mountain shadow
    Possibly Pom. Looks similar to last time which was a disappointment here.
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