mountain shadow

Dreadfully poor 12z GFS. Zonal from the weekend all the way to the end. Thankfully it's just the GFS.

The only positive I see is the PV dropping into Scandi, if we could tap into that then bingo,

What am I missing here Steve? All I see are Iberian heights, a positively tilted Atlantic low and South Westerlies?

Yes. Atlantic back in over the weekend then Atlantic domination until after Christmas. Hopefully see a change between Christmas and the end of the year.

Personally, I think Christmas Day is looking a bit too early for any proper cold, hogmanay maybe.

Whilst these forecasts can be vague, I personally take more notice of them, than anything else. They have never been on board with any cold ramping since the Scandi heights were beginning to show up a few weeks ago and always favoured the Atlantic winning. Unfortunately this forecast does appear to point to the unlikelihood of a white Christmas for most.

Not looking great for a white Christmas unfortunately. Any strat help looks like being pushed back into the New Year. Still time for a change and will give it a couple of days before throwing in the towel. Atlantic mild looks like dominating for now.

It's a very wet one, that's for sure. If we can get height rises to the North though and a more Southern jet, it opens plenty of opportunities.

Aye, I was talking about the West in terms of the West of GB & NI.

Agreed Ed. I think the brief Easterly ship has now sailed. All eyes on a Christmas Northerly now I think.

I do? Why?

I think that's where our focus has to be now as the Easterly looks a bit of a blink and you'll miss it affair, especially for us out West. A decent number of 0z ensembles have potential for snow around Christmas Day and it would be good for that trend to continue.

The latest Met Office forecast from Thomas Schafenaker has London with temperatures of 6 degrees by Friday, 10 degrees out West? Only posting this as it appears at variance with model output.

So would most I think.

Forget the Easterly this week. All eyes on Christmas week for a potential white one.