mountain shadow

I don't expect these forecasts to be 100% correct, not even 70 or 80% correct, but kind of point us in a direction of travel, I certainly don't expect them to be soooo monumentally wrong though, especially at a 2 to 3 week timeframe. I mean, this forecast compared to the actual outcome points to a complete an utter failure of whatever prediction methods they use. Back to the drawing board.

With temperatures today touching 16 degrees above freezing, just a reminder of what the Meto long ranger was on the 26th January------>>> ---------------------------------------------------------- Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019: Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established. ----------------------------------------------------------- Horrendously wrong.

16 degrees possible today according to BBC forecast. That's defo short n t shirts stuff.

Makes you wonder, what the actual point of it is?

Well the ECM MJO forecasts are much poorer than expected as once again the modelling of the MJO appears to be very poor. The MJO is now in phase 8 but not expected to reach any great amplitude before moving into phase 1, so i wouldn't be expecting any help there.

Spring is in the air today.

It's incredible how wrong the forecasts/teleconnection projections have been , when we are seeing the complete and utter opposite of their predictions. Something has gone massively wrong somewhere.

Can't agree with Matt Hugo there. Yes, it has been blocky, but of a mid latitude as opposed to high latitude block, that's why we've missed out, yet Eastern and South Eastern Europe has done rather well out the UK block. This is modernWinter stuff really.

Calgary is experiencing its coldest spell of Winter weather in 21 years.... https://globalnews.ca/news/4946862/calgary-cold-weather-streak/ Given its latitude and continental climate, that is something. Looks like the SSW worked from some.

Agreed. Carryduff only had one decent fall of snow and I missed it, as was in Dublin! [email protected]@#

So, any towels left on the loungers this morning?

It's been over ridden by the atmospheric state. Despite being in a weak El Nino, the atmosphere is more La Nina. No one knows why. Probably the SSW going against us.

A very sobering post. I don't think the MJO is stalling in Phase 7 though, it is going to move into 8 but at far less amplitude as they were predicting last week. That for me is why my towel is thrown in for the Winter, see y'all next Winter.

I've certainly given up for Winter. Maybe a cold Spring but Winter is assuredly over for cold and snow.

Personally I'm waiting until tomorrow mornings runs before calling it a day.