

mountain shadow
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mountain shadow last won the day on May 12 2015
mountain shadow had the most liked content!
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Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
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Met office 16 to 30 day outlook
mountain shadow replied to Summer Sun's topic in Winter and General Weather Discussion
I don't expect these forecasts to be 100% correct, not even 70 or 80% correct, but kind of point us in a direction of travel, I certainly don't expect them to be soooo monumentally wrong though, especially at a 2 to 3 week timeframe. I mean, this forecast compared to the actual outcome points to a complete an utter failure of whatever prediction methods they use. Back to the drawing board. -
Met office 16 to 30 day outlook
mountain shadow replied to Summer Sun's topic in Winter and General Weather Discussion
With temperatures today touching 16 degrees above freezing, just a reminder of what the Meto long ranger was on the 26th January------>>> ---------------------------------------------------------- Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019: Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established. ----------------------------------------------------------- Horrendously wrong. -
Cold hunt - models and chat
mountain shadow replied to Paul's topic in Forecast models, atmosphere, stratosphere & global drivers
16 degrees possible today according to BBC forecast. That's defo short n t shirts stuff. -
Cold hunt - models and chat
mountain shadow replied to Paul's topic in Forecast models, atmosphere, stratosphere & global drivers
Makes you wonder, what the actual point of it is? -
Cold hunt - models and chat
mountain shadow replied to Paul's topic in Forecast models, atmosphere, stratosphere & global drivers
Well the ECM MJO forecasts are much poorer than expected as once again the modelling of the MJO appears to be very poor. The MJO is now in phase 8 but not expected to reach any great amplitude before moving into phase 1, so i wouldn't be expecting any help there. -
Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards
mountain shadow replied to Mapantz's topic in Regional Discussions
Spring is in the air today. -
Cold hunt - models and chat
mountain shadow replied to Paul's topic in Forecast models, atmosphere, stratosphere & global drivers
It's incredible how wrong the forecasts/teleconnection projections have been , when we are seeing the complete and utter opposite of their predictions. Something has gone massively wrong somewhere. -
Cold hunt - models and chat
mountain shadow replied to Paul's topic in Forecast models, atmosphere, stratosphere & global drivers
Can't agree with Matt Hugo there. Yes, it has been blocky, but of a mid latitude as opposed to high latitude block, that's why we've missed out, yet Eastern and South Eastern Europe has done rather well out the UK block. This is modernWinter stuff really. -
Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)
mountain shadow replied to Summer Sun's topic in Winter and General Weather Discussion
Calgary is experiencing its coldest spell of Winter weather in 21 years.... https://globalnews.ca/news/4946862/calgary-cold-weather-streak/ Given its latitude and continental climate, that is something. Looks like the SSW worked from some. -
Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards
mountain shadow replied to Mapantz's topic in Regional Discussions
Agreed. Carryduff only had one decent fall of snow and I missed it, as was in Dublin! [email protected]@# -
Cold hunt - models and chat
mountain shadow replied to Paul's topic in Forecast models, atmosphere, stratosphere & global drivers
So, any towels left on the loungers this morning? -
Cold hunt - models and chat
mountain shadow replied to Paul's topic in Forecast models, atmosphere, stratosphere & global drivers
It's been over ridden by the atmospheric state. Despite being in a weak El Nino, the atmosphere is more La Nina. No one knows why. Probably the SSW going against us. -
Cold hunt - models and chat
mountain shadow replied to Paul's topic in Forecast models, atmosphere, stratosphere & global drivers
A very sobering post. I don't think the MJO is stalling in Phase 7 though, it is going to move into 8 but at far less amplitude as they were predicting last week. That for me is why my towel is thrown in for the Winter, see y'all next Winter. -
Cold hunt - models and chat
mountain shadow replied to Paul's topic in Forecast models, atmosphere, stratosphere & global drivers
I've certainly given up for Winter. Maybe a cold Spring but Winter is assuredly over for cold and snow. -
Cold hunt - models and chat
mountain shadow replied to Paul's topic in Forecast models, atmosphere, stratosphere & global drivers
Personally I'm waiting until tomorrow mornings runs before calling it a day.