xerxes

Very good assessment. Developments upstream will be the key to the jet speed and profile. Until we get something to disrupt matters its more of the same for next 10 days. Of course the feeling often is that early winter in El Nino years can be dominated by an active jet and ostensibly mild conditions with the colder weather towards winters end. It will be good to test this theory now that we have this mild start.

Great display again this morning - taking place now

Not sure if this is the place but at 3.30am there was a nice display of Noctilucent Clouds. They were no longer visible by 4am

A decent description from ChrisK regarding the triggerpoints relating to the plume. The warm front due to arrive overnight Friday into Satuday will likely provide some good thundery activity given the instability still around into the early hours, and the high potential across N.France later on Friday. The cold front on Saturday would appear to be when we may expect the most violent storms as the parameters across Eastern England by mid afternoon are excellent.

Indeed - posted that one yesterday - probably should have mentioned it was about Mr Madden's excellent forecasts(LOL)

Well I was appalled by the attack on NW in the past week Anyway, the following is an interesting testimony that is doing the rounds this afternoon Very cleverly constructed and tells us what we as enthusiastic amateurs already know about the site in question;0) http://weatherman79.wordpress.com/2014/01/19/winter-forecasting-the-broken-clock-conundrum/

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Largely agree with those comments. I have thought for some time that we will see a predominance of Northern blocking again this summer and a resultant rather poor summer. I really hope I'm wrong but my head says that it will be rather wet and at best average in terms of temps

Been watching an area of intense rain for many hours between initially Chichester and Reigate and now Chichester and Farnham. Chichester must be underwater!

Video taken from the car on my phone as the cloudbase passed

It was hard to get a good shot of the approaching squall(2 miles S of Alton) as there was already rain falling which hindered the clarity of the cloudbase but I was reasonably certain of a funnel on the mid/left of this shot given that it was there for a couple of minutes in an otherwise chaotic cloudscape. Impossible to be sure unfortunately. Once arrived it delivered torrential rain, hail and strong SLW's

Is that a potential bow echo coming up from the Portsmouth area?

Indeed - another dormant cell has just hit Basingstoke with some torrential rain

Away from some intense rain that affected Alton a while back the developments closing in on the IOW need watching. That's a very intense and developing convection line heading NE. Probably responsible for the Bournemouth activity

Perhaps Estofex are away on vacation LOL Some talk of a MCS developing across the south after dark. I would not be surprised as the instability source switches to the English Channel and onshore winds as the trough approaches.