NorthYorksWeather

First thing Sunday, daughter is not far off 2 years old now so should be fun with the youngun.

This is getting silly now. Met Office often are quite conservative with their minimum temperatures from experience and they are going for 2 nights at -12c in Dalwhinnie. Wife thinks I’m an absolute nutter for bringing a weather station, we’ve been together 15 years so I’m surprised she didn’t expect it already.

Good afternoon, I’m getting rather excited about my annual week trip to Dalwhinnie on Sunday. Looks like I couldn’t have timed it better, there is a possibility that the temperature may not rise above freezing for my entire 6 days there. Snow wise Dalwhinnie is quite sheltered from northerlies compared to the likes of Aviemore so will require some larger showers or bands to get a good amount here. Met Office has us right on the southern edge of the yellow warning for snow on Sunday and Monday. The one thing I don’t have to worry about is elevation as the house is a whopping 370 metres above sea level. Here’s hoping to a proper cold and snowy week and look forward to contributing to the group.

That really is a gorgeous northerly when looking at the NH view for ICON 18z. -8°C 850s down to the Midlands and widely -10°C and below across Scotland.

I’ve been on here since 2006 and quickly learnt to not tell anyone cold/snow is coming until Nick Sussex starts ramping. Might just wait till all 12zs are out to be safe.

You’ll be coming up to meet us at Lion Inn on North York Moors again if that comes off Kasim.

Day 8 and the cold air comes back flooding south across all areas.

Quite a shift north for cold air on EC this morning for day 6/7 when comparing with yesterdays 0z EC run.

0z GEFS Short Ensembles for North Yorkshire show good agreement for the plunge arriving late on Sunday and mean staying below -5 throughout. Once again the operational is at the top end of the pack so potential for some further cold upgrades across the GFS today.

0z GEFS 168 mean Slightly better than the 18z when comparing heights into Greenland from the Atlantic.

Very cold EC at 192. out of kilter with all other models at that timescale….. bin it

Snow/wintry mix moving down western areas with a renewed push of cold air following from the North of Im reading that correctly.

Ideal scenario would be that shortwave over Iceland move south eastwards giving some snow in places followed by a renewed northerly blast. 168 will be interesting anyway.

GEM looking more like GFS with that low just off the coast off Norway pushing everything a bit further west. It is however a slight improvement compared to the 0z when comparing the same timeframe at 120hrs

UKMO 144hrs just stunning!

UKMO not making any fuss with shortwaves and produces a belter. That’ll keep Mr Sussex happy.

Winds turn more NW at 168 and the cold is well and truly entrenched across all areas.

ECM 144hrs Cold northerly winds sweeping right down the UK

UKMO 850s for day 6 (next Monday) -12 into Scotland and -10 down to parts of the South Coast for a time.

UKMO 168hrs, looks similar to last nights EC, cold air already entrenched. Shortwave to our NW looks like it should move SE and open the floodgates to further cold air.

GEM is a tad slower bringing the cold air southwards at 168hrs but the main course is not far away to our north.

GFS 168hrs Cold air slowly filtering southwards

GEM, UKMO and GFS 144hrs

GEM 12z hot off the press also similar, looks like with got good agreement at 120hrs so far.

GFS 12z 120 hrs Very similar to the 6z let’s see how we go