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Gavin P

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Posts posted by Gavin P

    Winter 2012 / 2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    That forecast from Accuweather definetly looks "El Nino" driven, but I would urge caution on this because as I explain in my video El Nino just doesn't see to be getting going this year.

    Theres still time for it to develop, but if it carries on as it is we'll be looking at an ENSO neutral winter most likely.

    Terry Scholey Weather Forecasts

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hi all,

    Here's Terry Scholey's mid September to Mid October weather forecast;

    http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

    TERRY SCHOLEY WEATHER SERVICE

    Latest thoughts mid-September to mid-October 2012

    General Comments:

    The period towards mid-September has been more mobile than originally thought, but the promised

    warmer, drier than average month has certainly materialised so far. The reminder

    of September should also follow the original forecast quite well, with perhaps

    brief tastes of "Indian" summer into the final week in the east and south. It

    will eventually become more unsettled however, with showers giving thunder in

    places towards month end. Confidence remains medium to high.

    The confidence for the first half of October though is somewhat lower, as the

    situation is a little more confused. A fair amount of quiet, mainly dry autumnal

    weather is suggested giving some dull, misty days but there could also

    appearances of St Luke's little summer in the east and south. There will be some

    rain at times as well though, with the end of the first week briefly looking

    particularly unsettled.

    September 16th to 20th: Westerly breezes give a north/south split. Windy at times over Scotland and in the north with occasional

    showers, but there will also be some dry weather giving sunny spells especially

    in the east. Central and southern areas could see the odd shower, but here it

    should be mainly dry with sunny spells. It will feel chilly in the wind at times

    in all areas, but eastern and southern parts will have some pleasantly warm

    afternoons. Top temperatures say 14 to 19C, with minimum values 2 to 8C bringing

    the risk of ground frost to some sheltered northern valleys.

    September 21st to 25th: Quieter at least for a time, with a mix of cloud and sunny spells

    after the clearance of early mist and patchy fog. The east and south could have

    brief tastes of "Indian Summer" but there will be some showers mostly over

    Ireland and in the west. Later it could become more generally unsettled, with

    locally heavy showers. Maximum temperatures should be 15 to 18C in the west,

    while the odd day in the east and south-east could see 22 to 24C being reached.

    The nights should be milder, with minimum values between about 9 and 14C.

    September 26th to 30th: Generally unsettled with showers locally heavy

    and prolonged giving thunder in places. There will be brighter spells however

    giving sunny intervals especially in the east and south, after the clearance of

    early mist or fog patches. Although gradually becoming cooler, temperatures

    should be well up to normal reaching say 14 to 19C, with minimum values mostly

    between 7 and 12C...

    To read the rest please click here: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

    The Seasonal Forecast Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Gavin P

    @gavin p hey gavin every time i go to your website i cant play the video and if u dont mind me saying this can u make your website a bit v.i friendly thanks man.

    Are you trying to watch on an i-phone? I have has some feedback that the vids are hard to play on i-phones. Unfortunately thats YouTube's fault and theres nothing I can do.

    I may launch an app next year though.

    Terry Scholey Weather Forecasts

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hi all,

    http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

    "September 2012 Final Update."

    General Comments:

    A drier and warmer than average September seems likely particularly over central, eastern and southern areas, with just brief cooler intervals occasionally "feeding down" from the north. It could also be a sunnier than normal month, especially over England and Wales. Current weather patterns are suggesting that on the whole the first and the third weeks should provide the driest conditions, with changeable weather most likely towards mid-month and at the end.

    There is still some doubt as to the pressure pattern around mid-September, as several key years in the past came up with different results. One particular September of interest was that of 1879, that like this year followed one of the wettest summers on record. It is also a particularly good lunar match and to some extent is close to the current phase of the solar cycle.

    Confidence is medium to high, with the timing of weather events likely to be within a couple of days. The next update will be the mid-September to mid-October prediction.

    September 1st to 6th: Predominantly dry, particularly in central and southern areas, with some warm sunshine although cloud amounts will vary. Breezier and more unsettled over Scotland particularly the north and west and at times over Northern Ireland, with occasional rain or showers. Temperatures will be close to normal in the north say 15 to 17C by day, but above average in the south and east with some very warm afternoons when 23 to 25C could be reached. The nights generally will be mild, with minimum values mostly between 7 and 13C.

    September 7th to 9th: A few showers perhaps over north and east Scotland at first, otherwise staying mainly dry with perhaps some quite sunny days. Scotland and Northern Ireland should also be noticeably brighter, but it could be somewhat cooler and fresher with chillier nights. Top temperatures in the north should be 13 to 16C and in the south 18 to 20C, with minimum values say 5 to 10C giving a risk of ground frost mostly in the north.

    September 10th to 15th: Some intervals of warm sunshine but probably increasingly hazy, with more in the way of cloud and early mist or fog patches. Also an increased risk of showers particularly towards mid-month, when some locally could be heavy perhaps giving thunder. Feeling warmer or milder, with top temperatures 16 to 18C in the north and 19 to 24C in the south. The nights should also be milder, with minimum temperatures mostly in the range 8 to 13C....

    Click here for the rest: : http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

    Final Autumn 2012 Weather Foreast

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Thanks Gavin, a below average Autumn looks on the cards going of the majority of long range models then.good.gif

    Yes, the temperature signal is quite conclusively for a below average autumn. Precipitation signal is much less strong (as I explain the vid, thats usually the case with long range models) and the stormier autumn than we've been used to recently idea really comes from my own musing/hunch.

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