Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Gavin P

Members
  • Posts

    981
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

Posts posted by Gavin P

  1. Hi all,

    Here's todays model based video - Firming Up On The Greenland Blocking;

    http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

    Some very good agreement now on a change to much colder weather at the end of next week, with all the main models going for a classic blocking feature around Greenland and Iceland. Though its still just about too far away to have good confidence, despite seemingly excellent agreement.

    Next week does looks very, very interesting though as we go from one extreme to 'tuhter. :D

  2. http://gavsweathervi...rryscholey.html

    Mid October To Mind November 2012

    General Comments:

    It's very tempting to make predictions regarding the coming winter at this time, but there are signs that the approaching season could be very cold at times and snowy. Another concern is that there could be wintry spells both in the forecast below and snow in places well before Christmas. As far as the remainder of the winter is concerned, there is a need to see how both the stratospheric wind and pressure over Greenland behaves in the next week or so.

    The current thirty day prediction sees a marked drop in temperature towards the end of October or into the first few days of November, followed by some perhaps quite sharp frosts and patches of freezing fog. There will be milder, unsettled spells however, most likely at first and again probably in the second week of November.

    Weather period breakdowns:

    October 15th to 20th: Unsettled everywhere and quite wet at times, with heavy rain in places. There could also be strong winds occasionally, between brief drier, quieter intervals. Temperatures will vary but it should generally be mild, but cold enough at times over northern Scotland for snow on hills. The thermometer could reach 16 or 17C briefly in the east and south of England in milder intervals, but 12 to 15C should be a more general daytime maximum. The nights however should be milder generally, with minimum temperatures mostly in the range 5 to 9C.

    October 21st to 25th: Pressure should build probably from the north, giving a drier, quieter interval, with showers fading at least for a time. The north and east of Scotland and central and eastern areas of England could be dry for much of the period, with a mixture of sunny spells and sometimes dull, misty weather. Ireland and western areas may become unsettled and breezier later with rain or showers. Temperatures should be close to or slightly below normal reaching say 9 to 14C. The nights however will be somewhat colder with a risk of ground frost especially in central and eastern areas, with minimum values for a time mostly between say 1 and 6C....

    For the rest please click here: http://gavsweathervi...rryscholey.html

  3. Hello all,

    Please check out my latest, model based month ahead forecast video for October - http://www.gavsweath...om/monthly.html

    After several months of disappointing forecasts using the BCC model, I've reverted back to CFS for this month.

    You can also read Terry Scholey's October forecast here: http://www.gavsweath...rryscholey.html

    Here's the first part;

    October 2012 - final update.

    October will be a month of changes,

    with brief touches of "Indian Summer" possible in the east and south. Shades of

    winter could also occur though, mostly over Scotland but probably more widely

    towards month end that could bring snow to some parts and the first major frosts

    of the coming winter.

    Three weather types should prevail. Mild, moist

    winds from the south or south-west bringing wet and windy weather, interspersed

    by brief colder north westerlies giving brighter intervals. Quieter spells could

    come from between east and south bringing a mixture of dull, misty weather and

    intervals of warm, hazy sunshine. And finally, much colder northerlies

    particularly towards month end.

    Colder snaps could be significant

    particularly later in the month, although any beforehand should be short-lived.

    Timing of events should be within a couple of days, with confidence for the

    first half of the month rated as medium to high, as it generally falls in the

    line with that issued a fortnight ago.

    The third week of October seems

    to be the most difficult to predict and there could be timing errors during the

    final week, but I will "firm up" on this in the mid-October to mid-November

    prediction....

    For the rest, please click here: http://www.gavsweath...rryscholey.html

    As always, many thanks

  4. I'm always a little bemused when I see anyone putting out an in depth winter forecast so soon (some even put winter forecasts out in the summer) Because for me, so much depends on the evolution of SST's, ice and snow cover and other things, that occurs through autumn.

    I won't really develop a firm idea until mid November at the earliest.

    Of course if your relying solely on models, thats a little differant.

  5. Hi all;

    Here's my second winter 2012/2013 round-up video. The video explores things like sea surface temperature anomalies, arctic sea ice and snow conver, as well as other elements, to see how conditions are evolving in terms of winter 2012/2013 as move well into autumn.

    http://www.gavsweath...m/seasonal.html

    More updates will follow in October. If you have any questions about the video please ask. :)

    Thanks all.

  6. Thanks Don. Yes, I though of 10/11 when I was going through the charts.

    Nice video gav- Ive watched the first bit so far

    One comment I would add to your period analysis commentary-

    Is that on seasonal models they tend to blend out a signal the further away we get in time, as expected the signal for blocking is weakened as I guess more of a historical bias is applied towards the norm at long range-

    So to see a blocking signal for Jan or feb is VERY good even if its weak because is overiding the bias....

    S

    Thanks Steve. I know you used to do something a bit like this, so its great to get your feedback. And you make a very good point about the signal becoming weaker the further out you go. I'll try and make that clearer in future vids. I'm still learning as I go how to get everything in. biggrin.png

  7. Hi all

    Here's my first UK model based seasonal forecast;

    http://www.gavsweath...m/seasonal.html

    Created on 21st September 2012 this video uses seasonal, global numerical models from the UK Met Office, JAMSTEC, the Beijing Climate Center and CFS/NOAA to predict the possible weather in the United Kingdom for the coming winter.

    As expected so far away the models create a mixed picture, with the UK Met Office model looking very cold, while many of the other models look nearer normal.

    More updates will follow in October and November and as well as these model based forecasts once a month I'll be doing regular updates with round-up videos where I look at SST's, snow cover, etc...

    If you have any questions or points about the video, please ask.

    Thanks for your support. smile.png

  8. Hi all,

    Here's todays model based update video: Nadine And The Spawn Of Nadine: http://www.gavsweathervids.com

    Models pretty clear on the general direction of traffic now (though JMA looks rather differant this morning) Just got to nail down the detail now - Won't be able to do that until tomorow 12z, probably.

    Looking a nasty storm. We also need to keep an eye on what the actual remains of Hurricane Nadine itself does. GFS and ECM trending towards taking it towards Iberia and then moving it north...

    Lots to keep an eye on for sure. :o

×
×
  • Create New...