Gavin P

Re. The stratosphere, I can't claim to be an expert in the stratospheric impacts on our weather, but to me the current temp in the strat doesn't look overly cold? http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

Just in case anybody didn't see it this morning I hope the mods won't mind if I post a link to my second Seasonal Model Round-Up Video; http://www.gavsweathervids.com The video looks at all the main seasonal models, such as the UKMO, BCC, JAMSTEC and others. If you have any questions about the video, please ask. Enjoy.

Hi everyone, Here's the October seasonal model round-up; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ Its a long one, so get a comfy chair and a cup of tea. I think you'll find it very interesting. If you have any questions about the video, as ever, please ask.

Hi all, Here's todays model based video - Firming Up On The Greenland Blocking; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ Some very good agreement now on a change to much colder weather at the end of next week, with all the main models going for a classic blocking feature around Greenland and Iceland. Though its still just about too far away to have good confidence, despite seemingly excellent agreement. Next week does looks very, very interesting though as we go from one extreme to 'tuhter.

Link now works.

JAMSTEC/IOD is going for a very cold winter in its update this month; http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html Brrrrrr..... I'll be doing a full seasonal model round-up video at the weekend. This will inevitably be included.

http://gavsweathervi...rryscholey.html Mid October To Mind November 2012 General Comments: It's very tempting to make predictions regarding the coming winter at this time, but there are signs that the approaching season could be very cold at times and snowy. Another concern is that there could be wintry spells both in the forecast below and snow in places well before Christmas. As far as the remainder of the winter is concerned, there is a need to see how both the stratospheric wind and pressure over Greenland behaves in the next week or so. The current thirty day prediction sees a marked drop in temperature towards the end of October or into the first few days of November, followed by some perhaps quite sharp frosts and patches of freezing fog. There will be milder, unsettled spells however, most likely at first and again probably in the second week of November. Weather period breakdowns: October 15th to 20th: Unsettled everywhere and quite wet at times, with heavy rain in places. There could also be strong winds occasionally, between brief drier, quieter intervals. Temperatures will vary but it should generally be mild, but cold enough at times over northern Scotland for snow on hills. The thermometer could reach 16 or 17C briefly in the east and south of England in milder intervals, but 12 to 15C should be a more general daytime maximum. The nights however should be milder generally, with minimum temperatures mostly in the range 5 to 9C. October 21st to 25th: Pressure should build probably from the north, giving a drier, quieter interval, with showers fading at least for a time. The north and east of Scotland and central and eastern areas of England could be dry for much of the period, with a mixture of sunny spells and sometimes dull, misty weather. Ireland and western areas may become unsettled and breezier later with rain or showers. Temperatures should be close to or slightly below normal reaching say 9 to 14C. The nights however will be somewhat colder with a risk of ground frost especially in central and eastern areas, with minimum values for a time mostly between say 1 and 6C.... For the rest please click here: http://gavsweathervi...rryscholey.html

Hello folks, To commemorate the 1987 Storm on the night of the 15th/16th October I've done a historic video looking at the synoptics that caused this mega storm event; lhttp://www.gavsweath...istorical2.html Also starts with a little cameo from a certain Michael Fish Enjoy

Hi all, Here's my third winter round-up. Once again looking at SST's, ENSO, snow cover and other things besides; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/seasonal.html Things seem to be progressing quite nicely. Enjoy

Thanks John. PM recieved.

Hi all, Snow is one of the most difficult, if not the most difficult element to forecast in the UK, so I've done a guide/tutorial just explaining some of the most important things to look out for if you want to know whether its going to snow or rain; http://www.gavsweath.../snowwatch.html Hope your enoy it and I hope I've explained everything OK. Many thanks.

Yes Frosty, certainly interesting trends/patterns from GFS in FI today if not particularly interesting weather.

CET is now down to 11.7; http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html Anomaly has gone below average.

Hi everyone, Here's todays 8-10 day model based musing video - Becoming Cold For Mid October? http://www.gavsweathervids.com Signs of a temperature drop on the way for mid month with temps maybe struggling to get into double figures away from the south and the first proper widespread frosts of the season.. Enjoy

I'm always a little bemused when I see anyone putting out an in depth winter forecast so soon (some even put winter forecasts out in the summer) Because for me, so much depends on the evolution of SST's, ice and snow cover and other things, that occurs through autumn. I won't really develop a firm idea until mid November at the earliest. Of course if your relying solely on models, thats a little differant.

A nice round 10.0 please. Increasingly stormy later in the month with that southerly tracking jet still with us regularly - Heights often higher than normal over Greenland

Hi all; Here's my second winter 2012/2013 round-up video. The video explores things like sea surface temperature anomalies, arctic sea ice and snow conver, as well as other elements, to see how conditions are evolving in terms of winter 2012/2013 as move well into autumn. http://www.gavsweath...m/seasonal.html More updates will follow in October. If you have any questions about the video please ask. Thanks all.

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Thanks Don. Yes, I though of 10/11 when I was going through the charts. Thanks Steve. I know you used to do something a bit like this, so its great to get your feedback. And you make a very good point about the signal becoming weaker the further out you go. I'll try and make that clearer in future vids. I'm still learning as I go how to get everything in.

Hadley down to 13.9; http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html Manley at 13.7; http://climate-uk.com/ We seem to be on course for the coolest September for 18 years

Hi all Here's my first UK model based seasonal forecast; http://www.gavsweath...m/seasonal.html Created on 21st September 2012 this video uses seasonal, global numerical models from the UK Met Office, JAMSTEC, the Beijing Climate Center and CFS/NOAA to predict the possible weather in the United Kingdom for the coming winter. As expected so far away the models create a mixed picture, with the UK Met Office model looking very cold, while many of the other models look nearer normal. More updates will follow in October and November and as well as these model based forecasts once a month I'll be doing regular updates with round-up videos where I look at SST's, snow cover, etc... If you have any questions or points about the video, please ask. Thanks for your support.

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Hi all, Here's todays model based update video: Nadine And The Spawn Of Nadine: http://www.gavsweathervids.com Models pretty clear on the general direction of traffic now (though JMA looks rather differant this morning) Just got to nail down the detail now - Won't be able to do that until tomorow 12z, probably. Looking a nasty storm. We also need to keep an eye on what the actual remains of Hurricane Nadine itself does. GFS and ECM trending towards taking it towards Iberia and then moving it north... Lots to keep an eye on for sure. :o

Here's today's model based video exploring the possibility of Stormy Sunday; http://gavsweathervids.com/ Models seem to agree on the broad pattern, but still a highly uncertain situation.

Epic post from Big Steve. Great post from BFTP also