Gavin P

Actually no, I closed the site last year so I'm YouTube exclusive now.

Nice to know I've made an impression! That's me!

Hi everyone, Hope you're all well? Thought I would share the GWV winter 2020/21 NAO Forecast with you all. Thanks all and enjoy

Thanks very much. That's great.

Hi guys, Just wondering if anyone has a link for those ECM clusters? I've had a look at the Icelandic website a few times but haven't been able to track them down yet.

Lovely list, many thanks. I might use this as the basis for a post on my blog tonight or tomorrow, if that's OK? Don't suppose theres any way of finding out what the OPI was in 46 and 62 is there?

Many thanks.

Is there a list anywhere for the top ten most negative OPI years?

Given we're under the final ten day's of October and every day this month has been negative, surely the only question now is HOW negative will be the OPI be this October?

Have to say I hadn't heard about the OPI but the evidence presented does look quite compelling.

Hey all, I created a YouTube video about the developing El Nino a few days ago. I thought you guys might like to see it; Looks like El Nino is on the way for 2014/2015!

Hi all, Thought some of you might want to see my new historic video looking at the severe cold and heavy snow of the winter of 81/82. Tomorrow at 12pm I'll have a video looking at November/December 2010 which you'll be able to find at. http://www.gavsweathervids.com But here's today historic weather video: Enjoy.

Thanks Stuart. Would be remarkable to get another cold Christmas after 2009 and 2010 (though it was very mild in 2011)

Thanks. I noted that 2009 had a very mild and Atlantic dominated November, but remembered that on a global scale there was a lot of indicators pointing towards cold.

Out of interest, how are we doing with the Strat compared to this point in 2009? Any similarity?

I've just started started releasing my first CFS based Christmas Forecast; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/events.html Will update regularly (not daily, but regularly) so keep an eye on this page. I don't have a "Santa" Shaker" but I do have "snow"

Morning all, Heres the sixth winter 2012/2013 round-up video; http://gavsweathervids.com/ Again exploring things like SST's, snow cover extent, solar, etc... Hopefully next week I'll have the final seasonal model round-up, then the week after that I'll put the round-ups and seasonal models together with the NAO forecast from June and try to make a forecast for the winter of 2012/2013. As ever thanks for your support.

Here's the Fifth Winter 2012/2013 Roundu-Up video; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ We're in the most critical period now, so these will now become weekely until the end of the month when Ill combine this with the seasonal models/May Atlantic SST and try to make a forecast for winter 2012/2013. Thanks for your support as always.

Here's my November month ahead forecast video: http://gavsweathervids.com/ Looking like another colder than average month Also has a sneak peak at December.

Hello folks, http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html Here's Terry Scholey's month ahead forecast: November 2012 final update. General Comments: A changeable, rather cold and at times wet November is envisaged, with rainfall totals probably above normal. It could also occasionally be quite blustery, but there will be dry, finer, colder spells when overnight frosts could locally be quite sharp. The origin of air masses this coming month will often be from the Iceland or Scandinavia areas making it feel rather cold, even when winds are blowing from the west. Frost and snow mostly on hills should be more frequent than usual, with the mean average temperature over most of the country likely to be below average. Confidence is medium to high for the first half and medium for the second. Summary: November 1st to 4th: Unsettled and rather cold. There will be showers and some longer spells of rain with snow at times on northern hills. The east and south will have the best of the sunny intervals. Top temperatures will be 6 to 9C, with minimum values say -1 to +3C giving slight frost in places. November 5th to 8th: Still rather cold with showers particularly in the east at first, but becoming finer and drier for a time. There will be sunny spells, but mostly slight frost could be more widespread. Maximum temperatures should be 5 to 9C, with minimum values mainly in the range -2 to +2C. November 9th to 12th: Becoming unsettled again and probably quite windy for a time with variable temperatures, although it could briefly become milder particularly in the north and west. Occasional rain or showers seem likely with snow possible on northern hills particularly later. Top temperatures should be 7 to 11C, with probably somewhat milder nights say between 2 and 6C.... To read the rest please click here: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Lovely sat picture.

Global_Warming over on TWO posted some pattern matching suggesting that that a colder than average November and December is highly likely.

Hi all, Here's my fourth winter 2012/2013 round-up video; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ Looks at things like SST's anomalies, ice and snow cover, solar activity, etc... To see how things are developing as we move towards winter. I should just say that these videos are building up a picture and at the end of November I'll combine the "round-up" videos with the seasonal model videos to produce an "official" forcast for winter 2012/2013. So all of these videos are eventually leading to a final conclussion. As ever, thanks for your support and if you've got any questions about the video please ask.

Thanks EML. We've tended to see rather volatile weather patterns in our part of the world since 2007, but globally its much harder to pin down that is "normal" and what isn't.

Hi everybody, Here's todays model based video: Some Unusual Patterns Emerging (And A Look At Hurricane Sandy) http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ Certainly hints of The Beast waking up early from its slumber. But no more than that at the moment