sundog

Anyone remember matty m? He works for met eireann now and does some met eireann radio weather forecasts on an Irish radio station .

The cold spell was rubbish here. Temperatures always in the range 0c to 3/ 4c one or two dustings most of which melted after a couple of hrs. Mostly cloudy, no frost. I would rate it 3/10 at a push. I would rate the much maligned feb 2005 spell for example better.

This winter kind of reminds me of 08/09. Often on the cold side but no real deep cold spell. At least in my location anyway. Did scotland have a good winter that winter like its having this winter? Hopefully this winter is the beginning of a run of colder winters which will have proper cold spells just the way the winter of 08/09 was the beginning. 08/09 also had 2 very mild winters before it just like this winter.

How many times in the past have we seen the gfs spot a trend run with it then ditch it and then go back to it again. Hopefully this is one of those times .

2.0c and 80 mm please.

Well there are those of us who think that feb could be the month that delivers so I wouldn't be surprised if perhaps it could start picking up on something.

Very good point. I was thinking the same that as of yet no place seems to have gotten anything out of the ssw . So perhaps this is not the end of the story.............we just need more time to see how things unfold.

Does look like we are going back next week to similar temps we had over the xmas period with more cold rain .

Personally it's been feb that I have always thought of when the cold will come not last third of Jan. Perhaps the last week of Jan the models will firm up properly on a cold spell ,that will strike first week of feb. Hopecasting perhaps but that's my thoughts.

The thing that concerns me about the potential cold spell later this month is that here in Ireland we have not had a real proper cold spell in the second half of Jan since the 80s. Could we miss out again? Very possibly imo. Unless any cold spell gets delayed till early feb. ..

Personally I think there will be a delay. But I reckon February will be the month of interest.........

Would I be right in saying that's the mother vortex on our side and a daughter vortex in the North American side??

Yes,like the last ssw in Jan 2019. Anyway as always time will tell......

Hopefully a blip,but however milder it gets or how long it lasts hopefully the effects of the ssw will save us in the end.

I think that's what happened the last time in 2019.

Dont think ive had a decent snowfall at my location during the second half of Jan since the 80s. Since then any decent falls of which there haven't been many have come during the first half.

The cold spell that hit parts of North America in late jan 2019,was that due to the ssw earlier that month?

Yes ,potential for Dublin and some other eastern parts looking at tonight's ecm for Tue. Any showers forming in the Irish sea (If they do as pressure looks high) would imagine would have a good chance of falling as snow a few km inland in -7c uppers.

Met eirean Tomorrow morning, there will be scattered wintry showers and some sunny spells, mainly in the west and northwest. More persistent rain will affect the northeast during the morning, falling as sleet or snow in places, before extending southwards over the east and southeast through the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, showers will become more isolated. Highest temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees but feeling colder in fresh and gusty northerly winds. Could some get lucky......?

2.3c and 55mm for me please.

Never know could be a surprise or two during this colder spell while we wait for a proper cold spell to arrive. Some parts of the country are likely to see some snow later tomorrow night and into Wednesday. Whatever way we look at it we are iat least in a much better position then the last 2 winters.

At least cold rain would be seasonal rain😄,better then mild southwesterly rain. What the models are showing atm we are in a hell of a better place then many recent yrs which in itself is something to rejoice. It wont be a mild xmas period thankfully which makes a change to many recent xmas periods. Lets see how things unfold over the next while...........

Reminds me a bit of this chart from late dec 78

40th anniversary today of Lennons assassination.