Lettucing Gutted
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Posts posted by Lettucing Gutted
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It's remarkable how cold the end of October 1997 was since the 850 HPA temperatures were about a very mild 5C. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1997/Rrea00219971029.gif This must be the most exceptional spell of inversion cold outside of winter ever.
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We've now had 7 consecutive double digit minima
I believe only the ghastly Autumn of 2006 has had such a long run this late on when there were 8 from 14th to 21st October - an outstandingly gloomy and horrific period of weather.Last Autumn by contrast had no double digit minima after mid-September and was like a breath of fresh air. A very nice, pleasant sunny season with none of the southerly/south easterly gloom which has been so common in October since 1999.
Indeed 1999 really did resume with gusto the step change warming with October that was dramatic from 1941 through 1972. Not only have the top 3 warmest ever Octobers occurred in the 2000's 2001 and 2011 have been the first Octobers to not have any air frosts.
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Mother nature has a great pair of scales...
She will balance things out.
Well I hope the "stark change" is to cold winds or at least cold raw storms rather than mild zonality rubbish as in 2006, 2009, 2011 and many other autumns like those.
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Why does anyone want a cold, grey and miserable September? Surely it's preferably for cold months to occur during wintertime?
A cold September doesn't necessarily equal grey and miserable weather. September 2012 cold weather was mostly accompanied by sunshine and showers and the very cold September 1986 was very dry and very sunny throughout.
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You may all call me the oracle, such is my wisdom.Shame a cool month has been stolen from us.
I feel your pain mate. I just hope we don't have to wait as long as we did in between March 2006 and July 2007 for the next cool month.
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Some great charts there feb1991blizzard. Unfortunately the 1st and 3rd charts will be too mild for cold and snow.
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Ah, a man after me own heart for sure! But for now, still way,way,too much like summer. Just evil - hope the change is swift and severe and as long-lasting as this damn summer.
Probably in another 50,000 years
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It looks like we can rule out a classic cold autumn like 1919, 1952 and 1993.
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14.3 could be the final figure this month(including a 0.2 downward correction)
Goodbye September 2001 hello September 2003.
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Yeah come on heat downgrade! Come on cold upgrade!
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Apart from insanely mild months like April and November 2011 and July 2006 I also hate months like this and February 2012 where one model teases us with a potent cold spell/cooldown whilst another dashes our hopes with blowtorch warmth for the same period.
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I'm sick of warm high pressure systems.
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My favorite charts in all seasons range from Cool Maritime Polar Zonality from the Atlantic to very cold Continental Polar air from the North Pole/Arctic via Northwest-Northeasterlies and from Russia via straight Easterlies.
Below are my favorite examples of cold Continental Polar Easterlies straight from Europe:-
http://www.wetterzen...00119870112.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119860210.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119960313.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119890404.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119550528.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00120031023.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119651114.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00120101201.gif
Below are my favorite examples of cold Continental Polar Northwest-Northeasterlies straight from the North Pole/Arctic:-
http://www.wetterzen...00119580122.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119690208.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119700305.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119080424.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119350517.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119970626.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119650704.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119120828.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119180929.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119931016.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119731126.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119811212.gif*
Below are my favorite examples of Cool Maritime Polar Zonality from the Atlantic:-
http://www.wetterzen...00119840115.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119960225.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119950302.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119900414.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119860514.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00120080626.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00120070703.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1934/Rrea00119340831.gif* Interestingly this unusually cold summer westerly wind gave a mean daily CET of only 10.8C on the 31st August 1934 with a -1C minimum at Rickmansworth according to http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/british_weather_in_august.htm!
We very rarely get westerlies that cold even in October and May these days let alone in August!http://www.wetterzen...00119500908.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119831016.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119961108.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119141219.gif*
*=I have have not experienced these examples.I would have added examples from spring 2013 but the charts for that season are not yet archived in Wetterzentrale.
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A spring with three halves, now that would be an extreme season!
That would be too extreme for me especially if it involves a very mild/very warm halve.
Here's my ideal temperatures in max and min order:-
January -3C/-10C
February -3C/-10C
March 5C/-5C
April 7C/-3C
May 10C/0C
June 13C/3C (think 20th June 2004)
July 15C/5C (think 4th July 1965)
August 15C/5C (think many days in August 1912)
September 12C/2C
October 9C/-1C
November 5C/-5C
December 0C/-8C
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Only since 1997 Frost? September 1997 must have been pretty cool up Northeast then because in the CET zone it was a pretty mild 14.2C and September 2012 in the CET zone was the coolest since 1994.
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The "Shropshire cloud effect" should be added to the Netweather urban dictionary.
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Hopefully if the latest gfs ensemble comes off this September might not be too much milder than last September after all. We could see the biggest July to September CET decrease since at least 1995. 5.0C or more to beat that.
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An interesting couple of charts
The 500mb height anomaly sits over the SST +ve anomaly off the states but also sits over a -ve SST off Iberia?
That positive 500mb height anomaly must be baroclinically driven with warm air advection in the west and cold air advection in the east instead of equivalent barotropic.
I actually hope they stay warm into early winter and then we get pool of -15 uppers with big SLP gradient move over warm SSTs, light the blue touch paper and stand well back!, those convective easterlies in Feb or March would have been all time greats if we would have had higher sea temps.
The problem is that while the atmosphere will be very unstable the warm ssts will also increase marginality and pimp up warm sectors in any cold airmass. IMO its better to have a cool sea and very cold sub -15C air moving over.
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It's the same frosty anyweather, you can tell by the lack of paragraphs
and also ironically by the lack of any frosty forecasts
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Assuming August is 17C and we then equal all of the warmest months on record from 2006 (16.8C), 2001 (13.3C), 1994 (10.1) and 1974 (8.1C) respectively then the final Annual CET will be 10.38C at its possible warmest. However if again August is 17C but we then equal all of the coldest months on record from 1674 (10.5C), 1740 (5.3C), 1782 (2.3C) and 1890 (-0.8C) respectively then the final Annual CET will be 7.8C at its possible coldest.
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I've got a bad feeling in my water that even Steve Murr won't have any crumbs of comfort to offer us coldies.
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Regardless of how mild or cool the rest of the year has been I always wish for a cool fresh September with cool zonality sunshine and showers days like 2012 or southerly tracking lows like Septembers 1992, 1993 and 1994 when its unsettled. When its settled I wish for a cool dry sunny and even frosty September like 1986 with its clean light northerly winds and cool high pressure systems.
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Summer 2013 1/10 whats the point of all the heat humidity and warmth without a run of storms to compensate!
June 2013 10/10
July 2013 1/10
August 2013 1/10
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I believe only the ghastly Autumn of 2006 has had such a long run this late on when there were 8 from 14th to 21st October - an outstandingly gloomy and horrific period of weather.
We very rarely get westerlies that cold even in October and May these days let alone in August!
October forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Craig Evans
Yeah July, August and September were filled with big promises of big cooldowns even in the reliable timeframe only for yet more warmth to occur in the end.