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swales

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Posts posted by swales

  1. Created: 09:55 on Mon 28 Jan 2019 GMT

    Further details

    A band of rain will arrive across Wales, northern and western England through the middle of Tuesday, then move eastwards through Tuesday afternoon and evening. The rain will turn quickly to snow on hills, then also to low levels in places. 3 to 5 cm snow is likely above 200 metres, with up to 10 cm in a few places. A patchy covering of 1 to 2 cm is possible at low levels, although some places will see no snow at all. As skies clear overnight, ice is likely to form on some surfaces. In addition, wintry showers will follow into western areas on Wednesday morning, giving further slight accumulations of snow in a few places.

     

    Snow and ice warning covering all of Wales out by MetO

    Screenshot_20190128-100611_Chrome.jpg

  2. 1 minute ago, Seasonal weather required said:

    Temporarily popped out of the shadows to show this :-

     

    Similar direction of travel though this time Swansea is under the heaviest precipitation , however you guessed it , yes it’s rain .

    Where is the fohn effect now ?

    Whoever this fohn character is they deserve a good kicking .

    You just have to laugh at this .

    Almost every bit of of the pathetic snowfall has gone now - you wouldn’t have known .

    Anyway , back into hibernation and lurking until next winter .

     

     

    82608CD8-C02B-464A-A681-BDD0EB422E29.png

    Haha came here to post this as well! Looked out my window and it's lashing down... with rain. 

    I thought yesterdays repeat foehn effect gap was the kick in the teeth. I was wrong. Today's heavy rain from the same direction is the real kick in the teeth. It's like some kind of sick joke. 

    And to rub it in........ a tweet half hour ago from DEREK "Now a tropical +5 in Swansea" 

    Roll on summer! :rofl:

    • Like 1
  3. 7 minutes ago, g1blet said:

    Hi j10, wrt foehn effect, in your opinion, is this afternoons forecasted precipitation coming from a slightly different direction and possibly lessening/cancelling the effect for the areas which missed out yesterday and overnight?

    All the models I've looked at this morning are keeping the shield firmly in place... except for HIRLAM so let's hope that's correct!

     

    HIRLAM chart attached... though I think it will be more patchy than this.

     

    Edit: Not sure about the direction maybe someone else can answer that. It looks to me though as if it will be similar to last night

     

     

    nethirlamuk-1-9-0.png

  4. 2 minutes ago, andymusic said:
     
    Yellow Warning of Snow and Ice for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan & Wrexham valid from 1030 Fri 02 Mar to 2355 Fri 02 Mar

    Carmarthenshire and Swansea in the same sentence as SNOW? Hmm that doesn't seem right! :rofl:

    • Like 1
  5. 4 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

    Well for the last hour the heaviest stuff has been over SWANSEA!

    Yes nice surprise...

    Been watching the radar. Some nice green pixels over Swansea heading toward me in Llanelli... but every time the radar refreshes the intensity drops before it gets to me ahahaha! I can't complain though everything is turning white and the wind is blowing it around like crazy

    • Like 1
  6. 2 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

    Can’t see any topography stopping that. Perhaps inland right in shadow of beacons etc and mid-west wales.

    but for Swansea and west etc, surely it won’t stop the heavy nature of this precip? Let’s see

    Don't jinx us now haha

     

    • Like 1
  7. 5 minutes ago, Seasonal weather required said:

    That is so unfair for that dry area .

    Deep snow for hundreds of miles all around that little circle of nothingness .

     

     

    Just now, Buzz said:

    It's even slightly tear-shaped - it's crying about the lack of snow.

    Haha it's sickening, even Penzance looks like it's accumulated more. We've just got to laugh at this point I think :rofl:

    • Like 1
  8. 5 minutes ago, Jayne aka Pembsgal said:

    Really cold in Pembroke Dock now and I mean bitter, can't ever remember being THAT cold starting the car and driving in.  Bit disappointed that we appear to be downgraded but yet all of the schools here will close at 1pm today and will remain closed tomorrow.

    HIRLAM gives us westerners hope

     

    Still though, even on this model parts of Carmarthenshire look like the only place in Wales to not get some decent snow

    hirlamuk-1-17-0.png

    hirlamuk-45-48-0.png

    • Like 1
  9. 7 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

    Some parts of the west have been removed from the amber warning but i wouldn't be surprised to see heavier pulses work in here at times next few hours 

    Not a good sign for those out West...  but I've flicked through most of the models and looked at the radar... From my observation I think nearly all the models have underdone the precipitation in the South UK/Wales

    That's a good sign I hope

    • Like 1
  10. 4 minutes ago, Buzz said:

    Speaking purely from an IMBY point of view, in terms of snow this looks like being a relative non-event for Carmarthenshire, Swansea, etc. I base this on having looked at a hell of a lot of charts and projections today. I just don't feel that's it's going to be anything dramatic or exciting on the snow side. Very worryingly freezing rain looks like being a potential problem on Friday and, let's be honest, what sane person wants to see freezing rain? I've experienced it - it makes all roads and pavements extremely dangerous and readily brings down power and phone lines.

     

    I've been trying to stay positive but all the high res models show it. Met Office graphics show it (though their automated forecast does show snow now)...

    BBC website graphics even show it! I find it quite hilarious but I'm going to be disappointed at the same time

    Snow shielda.PNG

    • Like 1
  11. 6 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

    Just to settle the nerves a little; 

    HIRLAM : More broad snow (Ie even Swansea West Gets 7/8 cm)

    ARPEGE: 5cm West Of Swansea

    EURO4: Likely to be over predicting the effects of the Brecon Beacons. They are a real annoyance but are they really going to wipe out all precipitation on SE to NW trajectory? Unlikely. 

    Met Office automated forecasts also show snow falling for the likes of; Swansea, Ammanford, Carmarthen. 

    Yes I notice MO automated forecast is actually showing several hours of snow here instead of being bone dry like it was yesterday...

    Is the automated forecast from their own in house model? I assume so...

    HIRLAM looking decent. I'd be happy with 8cm in snow starved Llanelli

    3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

    you ain't seeing the bigger picture - euro 4 always UNDERESTIMATES the PRECIP - UNDERESTIMATES it AND WHERE IT FALLS - TAKE IT WITH A PINCH OF SALT - THOSE CHARTS ARE JUST A GUIDE BUT ADD MORE ON ASWELL - then you got your BLIZZARD FROM HELL - OR SNOWY HELL - A GOOD PROPORTION OF WALES IS GONNA GET HAMMERED WITH THIS STORM - HAMMERED in BIG LETTERS

    I do love your enthusiasm Andy. I hope we all get a hammering. I'm in my 20's so don't remember anything special but the snow events that do stick out to me from my childhood happened during March! So roll on tomorrow and Friday

  12. 8 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

    Those charts still show no snow or PPN in this area WTF lol i could be green

    :rofl: 30-40 min drive east and it's a snow fest!

    I can't believe it, after all the hype and the perfect set up for a dumping the high res models are keep the snow shield over Swans and Carms

  13. 4 hours ago, Marcus_surfer said:

    Looking at the charts I must say there seems to be a very dry area around Swansea and could end up being a very easterly event with just a few flurries here let’s hope it’s wrong !

    I think all the high res models I've looked at this morn show a very insignificant event for Swansea and Carmarthenshire.... I hope they don't verify as I'll be gutted. 

    GFS and ECM not so bad with their precipitation BUT.....  like ever high res model shows the area mostly dry or with light PPN :wallbash:

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