Geordiesnow

GFS 06Z run does not topple the high fully into the UK but I fail too see why there is so much excitment over a cold raw dry easterly wind, you won't be getting any frost, and no doubt stratuscumulus cloud would eventually topple in leading to horrible cold grey days, especially for the South. Yet when you see a true polar WNW'ly hitting Northern areas, some don't describe it as a good run because its only affecting Scotland... I know which I prefer but each to their own. For me the ECM is much better for potential, much rather see some sort of attempt of retrogression to Greenland so we get the potential for a PROPER Northerly.

Well Tuesday was a more persisant snow event but I never seen much evidence it was going too affect this region anyways. Tuesday into Wednesday is really our last chance saloon with showers coming in from the North Sea, it does not look great but sometimes surprises can happen.

well if geordiekev getting rain now then even if it did started off as snow, it would of certainly turned back to rain, the PPN was just weird, totally disorganised and the models to an extent got it wrong(they were predicting PPN to hit evening time and it never). Apart from the slight risk of shower activity tomorrow morning before winds back too NW'ly, its onwards to Tuesday/Wednesday, things don't look quite as good but its one of those where on paper, it may look unspectacular but a slack flow could produce more in the way of prolonged PPN, and hopefully by then, its a clean proper convective Northerly... can't believe it this is our 3rd Northerly of the season and not one of them has been the proper sunshine and shower set up.

Yep, this is the period where it will probably become too marginal, the PPN just faffed on and did nothing when it wasnt marginal, a really weird night. No doubt it will arrive now we are in the period where we are on the wrong side of marginal. I don't expect to wake up to a white scene but how many times have I been wrong in the last few days!

Its not avin' a larf around, just looked out and diddly squot is falling. Its a strange radar with PPN just dissapearing when it gets to a certain point but once again, its faffing on when conditions seem favorable. Got to say, forecasts yesterday were off the mark, they had plenty of PPN falling for most of the evening yet its been bone dry. All this is summing up this winter in a nutshell, sheer frustrating. Give me a clean Northerly with the good old reliable sunshine and shower set up, that might happen mid week aslong the models stop trending of ridging the high in too quickly.

Question will be, will those dewpoints rise as we head through the night, slightly less cold air will come into play and the wind might be starting to veer stright North which will no doubt bring some moderation off the North Sea, could be another snow to rain event? A closer look at the models may suggest the colder air might not tuck back in until Sunday daylight hours, it could go either way though but in a way, its a nothing to lose situation, most of us don't have snow on the ground and most of us have low expectations to start off with.

Dew temps are still looking low going by weather station so that could compensate somewhat, the winds look off shore so I don't think its down to any influence off the North Sea. There is no real direction to the showers in one sence but they should edge southwards as the low heads southwards. One difference between tonight and last night and that is the air is forecast to eventually turn colder by morning so it should not be raining by the morning but I suspect the PPN will be gone by then!

dewpoints are low at the moment so if things were how they are then 2C should be okay(temp would drop when the PPN arrives) the question for me, what will the dewpoint be at around midnight? and the wind direction, any off shore wind will be good but an on shore wind would be less good. Upper air temps are forecast to rise marginally but admittedly, dew point temps are better than they were last night.

The way the UKMO is going with the quicker collapse of the easterly(the usual trend we see many times of the high ridging in quicker than first thought) then we may not see much in the way of snow falling on Wednesday. As for tonight, the problem I see is that the mild sector is still too close so uppers will rise marginally when any PPN does arrive and the lower level winds could actually veer Northerly which is not the best thing really as you will get some moderating effects of the North Sea. This looks a little similar to last night except when the PPN arrives, it will be much windier so as I mentioned today, evaporate cooling may be less of a feature as it just mixes the air too much and of course helps too keep temps up.

Not much difference too me, UKMO has followed the ECM trend from last night of collapsing the easterly quickeer than first thought, a trend we are all too familiar with in these set ups.

Its not that confusing, you got a mild sector within the flow and the Northerly is not a clean one although next week it should be a much cleaner and colder flow. The reason why your getting rain at 1C is down to the dewpoint probably being around the same whereas in a proper clean Northerly, you may get temps of up 2C but with a dew temp of -2 and that can lead to snowfall.

Shouldnt be any mild sector and the Northerly flow should be much cleaner also so more like the sunshine and shower set up that we all know and love. The question will be, will the winds be North/NNE'ly enough and how long will the flow lasts for during Wednesday, we can only hope the GFS is the more accurate on this one.

But it does not work as simple as that as if we had a cold continental airmass over us then yes there be leading edge snow but either the mild air wins which in turn will turn things back to rain or the cold wins and the lows get deflected. I guess 3ft is possible on higher ground that is exposed to a Northerly wind, then an Easterly one followed by a frontal snow event but at lower levels, highly unlikely but nothing is ever impossible as far as the weather is concerned.

Indeed but I do hope the UKMO and ECM are wrong in terms of how quickly they are toppling in that high pressure cell although on the other hand, I don't think I would want the NNE'ly to go too NE'ly/ENE'ly because then you get on shore winds from the Sea which may make things marginal. It does seem like the models just do not want to show the winds to favor our region!

Why? Its an evolution that is likely too happen but just how quickly will the high topple in, UKMO/ECM suggests this could happen quicker than first thought which means the Northerly/Easterly flow will get less and less, the GFS at least drags the situation out a little bit more.

I decided to stay up to watch the very heavy snow shower that occured between 2 and 3 and it provided a decent covering but sadly after that cleared, there was bits of light rain falling and from what the temps and dew points being recorded in Scotland, I knew it was almost game over but was still hopeful to be surprised when I woke up. I'm not too disapointed as for me, the snowfall was unexpected and a surprise. So why did it snow last night? A couple of reasons come to mind, the night started clear and weather stations were reporting a temp/dew of 1/-1 in most weather stations and despite increased cloud cover, the temps never really rised so we had cold enough air for snow to fall and it did, was a slow burner but despite that, it did started as mainly of snow. 2nd reason could be down to the lack of wind, too much wind mixes the air too much so evaporate cooling struggles to take effect, I mentioned last night that evaporate cooling would help and no doubt it did so whilst there was barely any breeze and it was snowing hard, it felt like we were on the right side of marginal and there did not seem to be any danger of it turning back to sleet/rain. Regarding tonight, I just think its the wrong side of marginal at lower levels, the air will get slightly colder today but only for the mild sector again to come back into play along with the risk of increased PPN, I suspect it will be windier tonight so evaporate cooling will probably not come into play much either, just have to wait and see though.

Wow, I think your a bit higher up than me but it shows the difference, there is a patchy dusting on the roads but we got nothing like that on the paths! Getting heavier again.

Indeed, much more interesting now, admittedly its much better than i thought yesterday and its a bit beter than i thought a few hours ago. I'm glad I am not in work in the morning! After a initial period of sticking, we are in the period where its struggling to stick and the ground is wet, there is some patches around on the road where i previously reported a dusting and its lying slightly on the car windscreens but it is a struggle despite better intensity and flake size. Just shows how marginal it is. Typical, just as it got heavier and it was starting to stick again, its totally eased off and no doubt it will start too melt! Did eventually turn more interesting and its better than I expected so on that note I'm off to bed!

Just feel again it could be an opportunity missed of getting some heavier PPN which will help to keep temps down so its less likely it will turn to rain. Still sleety/snow falling but its boring, really summing up the winter in this region like. Its reminding of that trough that came down a few weeks ago and it was the same, just a faff on and it eventually it turned to rain and we had a rain/sleet event all day on that Sunday. Edit: Mind you, as soon as I say that, its getting heavier again and its more interesting to look at!

Hopefully the moderate burst is heading this way then, still fine flakes with not too much intensity, bit of a snoozefest in all honesty, just waiting too see if its actually going to get interesting. Maybe JP is getting mixed up because it looks like rain but its deffo snowflakes, really small ones. You can tell the road surface is very cold in parts as its a dusting(very thin) on parts of the road but damp on other surfaces.

Seriously.... its definately snow here and i'm closer to the coast than you are, maybe it will turn to rain soon? *gulp*

Light sleety/snow, bit annoying that the PPN is not falling for us yet again when the temps are favorable! Getting heavier and it seems to be settling on the road slightly,looks to be all snow too. fine flakes but better than I thought in fairness.

Disagree with that a little bit, temps on average should probably be around 6-8C so a little bit below average for the most part. The problem with this cold set up is that its not the most snowy set up you will ever see, mild sectors are being a right nuisence however saying that, quite a lot of locations have seen falling snow and a lot has seen decent accumulations and we still got next week to go yet. It be a lengthy period of cold but I think a lack of snow in general could mean it won't be the most memorable one. Cold nights could become a feature next week also as winds are forecast to become light as we head through the week, especially in your location I would of thought.

I've never seen a set up that has been so unconvincing regarding snowfall, BBC temps are cold but not bone chillingly cold for a Northerly despite cold upper air temps. The only convincing thing about this spell is that first potent westerly blast, a proper instability flow and yes we got that "polar low" which delivered but for our region, I have been a bit underwhelmed when looking at the charts. Now as for next week, yes it could be a bit more interesting(it prob won't be until late Wednesday/early Thursday before pressure is high enough to kill any showers) but again, its not convincing we will see a true Northerly/NNE'ly, lets hope some luck will go our way. As for tonights, the signs don't look good at all really, tomorrow night might see marginally colder upper air temps if that centre of the low stays further off shore than it is forecast at the moment but the way this winter has gone for us, it will be close to us an saturday night could be quite wet indeed.

I suspect evaporate cooling may be more of a factor tonight because the winds should be lighter than they will be tomorrow night. Regarding tomorrow night, if the centre of that low is slightly further East we may get enough cold air, looks very very marginal though.