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Geordiesnow

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Everything posted by Geordiesnow

  1. I thought the wildfire season started slowly over Siberia? It just seemed too me June really give all the momentum but from July onwards, it turned alot cloudier and where there was multi year ice the weather stayed quite cool hence the Chukchi sea remained just below average for most of the summer. Sadly right near the end, the ice is giving up the ghost on the pacific side, its certainly not like 2013 that is for sure. I do think refreeze across the Beaufort and Chukchi could be quite rapid though given melt is quite recent but weather has to play ball on that though.
  2. And ain't that the sad thing that despite coming close last season, your saying your side got no chance of making top 4 and that despite I think West Ham look quite a decent side. Even as a neutrul, if all the big clubs signing the top players, there is going to be so many mis matches, just how ridiculasly one sided was City against Norwich was, suspect we may get plenty of more games quite like that but we will still hear the same old untrue clichés that there is no easy games in the PL!
  3. Which I find an odd comment really as if like your manager seems to suggest that your targeting a champions league place then you don't want too see your rivals significantly strengthend. Although being realistic I think the big 6 are all looking very strong now, even Arsenal once their strikers are back and fully fit. There is little to no chance a West Ham can make top 4, Leicester blown it twice now and tend to flatter to deceive at times. I think the PL will go back to those grim days of 2005-2009 where the small clubs go to these top 6 grounds and are more or less beaten before a ball is even kicked, and it's definately game over once the big team gets the first goal. Despite the pandemic, the big 6 look as strong as ever whereas clubs like ourselves and Burnley has not even got a penny left to spend!
  4. Compared to this time last year, it's certainly colder now than it was then and the extent slow down is certainly reflecting that. Anyone think we could finish above 2013/14? Looks a little bit of a long shot admittedly but it's definately a possibility. One other thing the cold is doing is going to start cooling those SSTS in the Laptev, need to really as they are well above average. I think realistically extent finishing around the 2008/17/18 mark which is what I kinda predicted at the start of the melt season(although I expected the Siberian ice to be more dominant). Before the more stormy weather in July, there was a moment where things looked quite precarious indeed and I really thought a record low was possible and lets not forget we were at record lows briefly this summer so let's not let the current extent fool us too much. How much of that dispersion will hang on is quite exciting to see. I'm sure some of it is multi year ice also so would be useful if it does make it to the end.
  5. Yes but June was very hot for both the ESS and Laptev Seas, strong southerly winds were a frequent occurance during June. They did back off during July but temperatures still above average here because of the open water and warm sea surface temperatures. If we have seen weather not conclusive for such open water during June, I may buy into the argument a bit more. There is a reason why there is alot more extensive ice in the Beaufort currently and its because if one area is losing ice at a fast rate, another area is probably cooler with a slower rate of melt. If we seen frequent dipoles(the classic ones), there be alot more ice in the Laptev/ESS and much less ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi than there currently is. I also don't think Atlantification is affecting the Kara sea as such, the Kara is changing because of climate change which is resulting in earlier melt and later refreeze which means thinner ice and warmer SSTS during spring and summer which means more ice melts away. As for current conditions, we are running at 9th lowest with a bit of a slowdown mainly due to slack weather patterns, the outlook looks fairly cool for the most part apart from the Laptev which will remain above average until it refreezes. The ice is getting more diffused in the Chukchi and to a lesser extent the Beaufort sea and a fairly deep(although not extremely) low hovering around these areas for the next few days. Will be interesting what impacts that will have on the ice in these areas, it was this time last year the ice just collapsed in the Chukchi sea, I think the ice will be a bit more resilient this year if albeit looking ever more diffused. One of those where the finishing line is near but not close enough and given the lack of Siberian ice and the warm SSTS in the Laptev, Im still getting a feeling we may finish under 4 million in extent still but unlike last year, confidence is not high in that regard.
  6. I still wonder what effects smoke really has on the ice, if the smoke is above cloud heights then it can't be deposited via precipitation and I see plenty of dark patches of ice which look near to melting out but are actually more stubborn than one might think. When you see smoke on the satalite images going across the basin, it looks dramatic, it looks scary but is it really? Definately more concerning in respect of climate change but I've not seen much evidence it harms Arctic sea ice directly. I noticed BFTV put a tweet out there about the rapid Laptev sea ice melt but then he proceeds to put Atlantification in a hashtag. Would like too see proof that the current melt in the Laptev has anything to do with Atlantification rather than the fact its down to excessive heat from Siberia and ever increasing sea temperatures which gives the positive feedback of more ice melting away. I'm sure there was no talk of Atlantification in the Laptev in 2016 and 2017 melt seasons where melt in the Laptev was slow, probably because the weather was cooler and it was the Beaufort that melted quickly in those years, I guess that must be down to pacification then.
  7. In answer to your question in the tweet, there should be next to no chance of challenging 2012, weather conditions could not be any different, pre conditioning is totally different to 2012(area is much higher) and even if a deep low hits then the way the ice looks, it should not seperate like it did in 2012. The concern is the very high SSTS in the Laptev, how much bottom melt will there be, coupled with winds coming from that warm source, how much will the ice edge retreat, in some parts, its already further north than it was in 2020 and we saw how extreme Atlantification was then. Also to look out for the ice around Greenland, not sure I ever seen a period of strong winds coming from the south as potentially prolonged as I am seeing in the model runs. Things could get interesting indeed there. I do hope some of the runs which shows a slack but cold low pressure system coming into play will be right but I suspect this block could prevent that from happening.
  8. Really interesting outputs showing with the models really wanting high pressure to dominate, there is the complication of a little trough but the models are firming up this won't stop the high from dominating and we may as well see strong southerly winds hitting the ice edge quite hard. There is potential of a heat blast for the Chukchi but this is looking brief however the ice has still been slowly retreating here. If the high does fully form as current runs are showing, I can't wait too see how the ice reacts to it.
  9. At this point, extent is currently 6th lowest(effectively tied 4th lowest with 2007 and 2011) and area according to the NSIDC is in the dizzy heights of 12th lowest. Its interesting so far extent has not followed the area slowdown as of yet, I don't think this is a fully a bad thing though as it means there is not too much ice spread but the drops are still a little too high for my likening. We shall see if extent finally responds to the area slow downs in the next few days, especially given the cooler conditions that is going to be in the pacific regions for the next few days at least. That is sadly counteracted by a big warm pool for the Laptev sea(this is really becoming the Beaufort of 2007-12 in terms of warmth) although there will be a brief respite in the next day or so before the southerlies come back in. Looking at the area numbers, you should feel a little more encouraged about the ice and things do look better than last year despite yet another early melt out in the Siberian seas(mostly the Laptev this year but the ESS also until a bit more recently) but how long can the ice last in the Beaufort/Chukchi. Its this time last year that major cyclone came in and really diffused the ice there, no such storms as of yet and the ice does look more firmer but its going to be an interesting race against time. Just how much can survive, SSTS in the Chukchi are for a change around average so that could help the ice. Also how much Atlantification will we see, I think the ice around Svalbard will have a better chance of surviving, its diffused but SSTS are just a touch below average in the Barants south of the ice(unlike last year!) we do have some warmer SSTS a bit further north mind and there has been some retreat but when you compare the ice this year to last, it really was very thin last year even if it did look more compact. The weather patterns do look quite mixed to say the least, some areas seemingly having better weather for ice retention than others but as of yet, no major cyclones forecast thankfully. If area numbers stay fairly high then extent will surely follow eventually but if they start to crash like they did last year then extent could still finish on the low side. I started the melt season thinking given the winter was good for ice thickening, extent could finish around the 2018 figure but the early Siberian retreat made me think again and dispersion was increasing and really thought at one stage we could be seeing record lows. Thankfully weather patterns became more favourable if albeit not showing in terms of extent numbers and I don't think we be challenging the record lows unless something extraordinary happens like a GAC but even then I don't think it would have the same impact as 2012 as the ice is not as diffused. Whereas this time last year I was near enough certain we will finish under 4 million, I'm not so sure we will this year but the fact we are likely to have very little to no Siberian ice increases the odds a little. Such an interesting melt season(as it usually is) , could write a book on it!
  10. Going to sound very pedantic TWS but at that location because of rotation of the earth, it would not be a northerly but a SE'ly(I think) but I get your point though. No doubt things are going to kick off over Greenland though, Greenland ridging is going to occur and that does not usually mean good news for the Arctic either. Looking at the set ups, the best case scenario would actually be something similar to that chart as the warm/hot air would miss most of the basin and that has been a possibility but the models do seem to be agreeing the upcoming Siberian hot pool of air is on its way towards the Laptev region. Plenty of compaction winds even before then albeit not especially warm winds but will be interesting how it all plays out. Other thing to note, the ESS is going to get cooler winds, if only we saw such a scenario during June and maybe just maybe that fast ice may of been a bit more resilient than it was.
  11. Exactly, most top European teams would be expected to get to the final with the teams England faced and having home advantage in all games bar one. I really must wonder what Sancho must be thinking Southgate seems to think more highly of Saka than him. How Foden can't get into this team baffles me also and Southgate clearly has not learnt anything from the Croatia game. People said this team could dominate international football, forget that and definately forget it with Southgate in charge. Shame because he does seem a nice man and he does seem to have the respect of the players but let's face it, if England won it, they be the equivalent of Greece, not very popular underdog winners because of their style of play.
  12. Entertaining!? Really! England played like underdogs and defend resoutly and very clinical going forward but they are not an entertaining team at all. Given the attacking threat they have, its almost criminal players like Rashford and Sancho barely got look in at all. England played Italy in Euro 2012 and played very defensively and was fortunate to get to pens 9 years later, same old storey and we even had home advantage but sadly these players are let down by an overrated manager. What was the point of bringing Henderson on if he was not going to be one of your pen takers and you took him off just before the shootout. Surely Henderson should be higher up on the list than Saka.
  13. I don't think it provided that much protection in all honesty, the ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi fell apart at the back end of July and into August helped by quite a strong cyclone and all the heat and warmth in Barants and Siberian seas probably increased bottom melt massively for the CAB. Some slight positives for this year is the Chukchi ice does look a bit more resilient than last year, the CAB has so far been quite cold and is forecast to remain that way for now and the Barants sea SSTS are just below average whereas this time last year, they would start to increase massively with plus 10 upper air temperatures hitting Svalbard! The diffuse ice does remain a question mark mind but looks can be deceiving, the ice was not diffused last year on the Atlantic side but it did look almighty thin. If the SSTS in the Laptev start to remain steady or even cool down from this cyclone then maybe things will look a little better. As TWS says, there is a forecast of perhaps brief but intense heat hitting the ESS and then the Chukchi sea in around 3 days time. However if they don't cool down or it Increases even more then any cold weather over the CAB could be overridden by bottom melt.
  14. Record lows now GW! The heatwave over Canada has played a part in rapid ice melt in Hudson Bay and the fast ice we had is literally collapsing like a pack of cards thanks to weather and perhaps warm rivers entering the basin? The shape of the ice pack looks so similar to last year yet the weather locally over the Laptev is now going to be totally opposite to last year. I'm just hoping this low that is near the Laptev fills in and weakens quickly and the cold pool remains over the CAB. That said, the models still want to bring ridiculas heat over the ESS and perhaps eventually the Chukchi. I still worry alot about the dispersion that is visable on the ice pack and if those warm SSTS from the Laptev starts getting near that diffused ice, it going to be quite vulnable I believe. BTW I'm just almost gobsmacked what I seen across Siberia, if you told me just 2 months ago the Laptev and ESS will have record breaking melt, I would not of believed it but the weather has really not played ball here at all for the most part. I have seen very little set ups which had a period of winds coming in from the ice, for the most part, they have been coming in from a (hot) Siberia.
  15. Whilst it's quiet in here, I do think there is a good chance of seeing something extraordinary in the 2nd half of the melt season and whilst I was initially optimistic about the ice, sadly the recent trends of Siberia turning far too hot has put a big blow on the ice there. The ice pack shape is looking almost identical to 2020 and the Siberian fast ice is now giving up the ghost. The ice pack in the more central areas is now looking more disperse following a recent cyclone and now we are getting strong warm southerly winds follow by potentially another deep low. Last year saw a largely compact ice pack totally destroyed by early retreat and very high SSTS, this year we are seeing an early retreat in the same areas but this time the ice pack is full of holes(not everywhere of course) and if any warm SSTS gets near to that disperse ice, it will surely not hold up for very long. Only the reasilence of the Beaufort ice may prevent record lows but unlike last year, SSTS are very high here also so bottom melt could well occur quickly here once that momentum starts. The Atlantic front is interesting, ice that looks vulnable is probably not as looks can be deceiving however if those SSTS warm significantly in the next 8 weeks, atlantification could well be quite extreme again. And there is hints the persistent and well above average high pressure over Scandinavia is going to chuck hot air over the Barants and Kara seas. It may not happen as its still in the medium term but Im not liking what I am seeing here at all. Last year, I had the hope the compact looking ice pack may of saved the day but hot SSTS overpowered that, this year I can't see much to cling onto. Maybe the cyclone will eventually go into a favourable spot and be alot slacker but in the short to medium term, it's going to be in the worst possible place imo.
  16. I think 40C could well be reached one day but western Europe probably need to be in some sort of drought to help to build enough heat that it can cross the channel without too much modification. That said in 50 years time, who knows just how high the global temperatures will get, if its like how some people are predicting then it does seem to be its a matter of when rather than if. Meanwhile the heat over Canada is just incredible. There's going to be the question of why the heat that built under the blocking high got so intense, surely the drought conditions over there are playing a part which of course is all linked to climate change.
  17. Temperatures are 20 degrees above average on the Siberian coastline around the Laptev sea, that's right a full on 20C above average!! Even more ice retreat is expected here and if an ice free pole was expected to happen then you would imagine coming from the Laptev sea is the best bet. Don't think we will see an ice free pole this year mind, did not see one last year despite all the heat and warmth in a similar area and the pole has been cold and cloudy but the reality is, most of the good work winter has done to help the ice on the Siberian side is quickly getting undone with record breaking melt in the Laptev sea and the fast ice actually not only turning blue, but black! I was hoping this year will be like 2018 but rapid snowcover melt and early heat has put paid to that. That said, I can't wait too see how it all unfolds during the rest of the season. The weather after this major heat blast for some areas looks pretty favourable for the ice but getting much cold air to hit the Laptev and ESS seems a tough ask although temperatures should drop a little bit at least.
  18. Didn't 2014 had a larger opening in this area? Looks slightly larger too me but its not surprising too see given the winds have constantly almost blown from the south. Even the respite coming up does not look like lasting all that long before more warmth coming in potentially.
  19. Sorry for the late reply. What i was trying to explain is that if there was more snow cover on the landmass in the ESS vicinity than there was, I'm sure the warmth would not be as strong as it was therefore the anaomoly would not be as high either. There is little doubt temperatures in that area will reach higher values than the spell we just had but there is no doubt the warmth left its mark with heavy and widespread melt ponding on the fast ice. At least the models are finally forecasting some slight respite for the ESS but indications are it could be the Beaufort sea turn for some warmth however this is in the medium term mainly. As for the hear and now, all eyes on that low, if has finally strengthed and its in the vicinity of the pole and will loiter somewhat towards the Laptev before heading towards the Barants and weakening as it does so be interesting if it leaves signs of diversion of the ice pack.
  20. Rapid snowcover melt is also a factor why the anaomoly is so high. In fact if the snowcover did not melt so rapidly in that area, the current high pressure spell would probably have less of an influence than it seems to of already had.
  21. I'm just hoping its going to be one of those situations that it's short term loss but perhaps long term gain regarding the current situation. Yes we are losing ice extent in the Laptev especially but if that ice is heading towards the direction of the pole, it's going to keep the ice compact and dispersion will be less likely. That said last year did see alot of weather that compacted the ice but there was rapid melting and SSTS sky rocketed also which no doubt played a role just how far that ice edge retreated so its got to be a balancing act also. Ironically with the models hinting at sort of a dipole pattern, it may help the ice(at least in the short term) across the Laptev but as per usual, it may help one region, but perhaps hinder in another area. Certainly interesting how much of a Laptev bite we will see again this year.
  22. Well the basin is experiencing its first significant warmth of the melt season, main target the ESS and to a lesser extent the Laptev sea. I think we are all ready seeing some signs of the warmth with slight hints of blue appearing on the fast ice, suspect this will become more obvious in the next few days as the high pressure cell sits in that area in the coming days. The Beaufort is cooler and the strong winds from Alaska which has been causing open water to increase have now stopped and is switching direction so the expansion of the open water should stop for now and ice may even drift back towards Alaska. Whilst the warmth is not going to be the strongest we will see this summer no doubt, it is early and the lack of snowcover means the temperature anaomolies are quite strong. Will be interesting how it all develops in the next few days.
  23. But in a few weeks time, the pack could join back together in that part of the basin given the impression its more solid ice again. It's one to watch and its something you expect too see in the Beaufort sea rather than the CAB at this time of year so it's going to be interesting how it plays out.
  24. May look weak but does not mean it is. Some large floes in there and given its location, its unlikely there will be much melt there anytime soon. Will be interesting how it develops in the coming weeks especially if we get a southerly wind.
  25. BFTV - I looked at your twitter page earlier and saw your tweet saying this winter was the 10th warmest on record(statistically effectively tied 5th with other years) but I noticed you did it from October to April. Given that recent October's tend to have alot of open water which releases heat, I'll be interested too see if the stats alter much if you did it from November to April instead? My impression of the winter going from alot of memory admittedly was largely high pressure dominated with the Pacific side of the basin being marginally colder than average along with the Kara sea in the 2nd half of winter when it actually finally fully refreezed. Barants and upto the pole area tended to be more average to above average at times. On the volume debate, my theory remains cryostat is underplaying volume a little bit due to perhaps less snow cover on the ice because of a lack of winter storms. Basically a total opposite of the 16/17 winter. Back to the hear and now, looks like the quiet weather will end in a few days as a modest low pressure system makes it way up from the lower latitudes, may have some local affects in the Kara sea and ice pulling away from the islands and landmasses but unlikely to have much impact in terms of extent as of yet.
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