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Geordiesnow

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Everything posted by Geordiesnow

  1. Spah1 Think that's the issue though, if there was more colder air in play, I think the low may of 'slide' more and perhaps any PPN missing us because the cold air is acting as a block/deflector. Even if the PPN did reach us and we were in colder air, would there be less PPN around on our side of the hills as of course cold air is also drier air so the rain shadow affect may of come into play more(which is what the models did seem to initially hint at). Seems like from my limited experience of living here, a frontal snow event coming up from the south/South West could be almost impossible meteologically because of the factors I mentioned and the sleety/wet snow type is the best i can hope for. Of course I'm talking mainly IMBY here, places like Liverpool would be in a better spot for sure as the rain shadow is far less pronounced.
  2. damianslaw Intensity has increased here on average but it's inconsistent although I do love watching the downdrafts of a heavier bursts. I do reckon parts of Cumbria could do quite well if intensity improves also, be shocked if there is no decent covering on the hills over there.
  3. Gary L Don't think it makes a difference, we needed more cold air to flood down and for overnight temperatures to be lower than what they were. Of some interest for members to the north of me and on higher ground, despite PPN being light, there is a sleety element to it. Intensity is of course an issue but maybe a good sign for higher parts of Cumbria later on.
  4. Joe Bloggs If the air was colder(negative DP), it would be drier therefore a rainfall shadow would be more obvious but because the air is not that cold the shadow is less pronounced although clearly going by reports there is some evaporation going on so it's not a massive of PPN as the radar suggests.
  5. damianslaw Evaporating before reaching the ground, the usual when conditions are right but the air is to dry!
  6. Joe Snow Oh for higher ground in terms of the Pennines, it should be snow, I'm not writing that off, I'm on about lower levels in the north west where the PPN looked more patchy but now the models saying it's going to be mostly rain, the shadow is much less obvious.
  7. Day 10 I'm also noticing on the recent PPN charts now rain seems to be the order of the day, the rain shadow has also disappeared and it's looking more like a solid band of PPN again.
  8. frosty ground I certainly never intended to come across that way all I said the Arctic airmass coming down was just a "wishy washy" type with 850s not being particularly low. In all honesty I don't even think it comes across that way and not quite sure why you interpret it that way? Let's hope I'm wrong and there is some surprises of at least people seeing snow falling before it reverts back to rain.
  9. Day 10 Obviously it coming in the daytime does not help things either. It would seem the best scenario for frontal snow in this region is a front coming in from the West into cold air with little or no wind. I've lived here since 2015 and I don't recall ever seeing a significant frontal snow event although I think it's always much tougher up here because the rain shadow affect will come into play whilst those further south and especially in the Liverpool area. Hopefully it will happen again one day as too often it seems the cold breaks down without much of a significant snow event and not just in this region but UK wide.
  10. frosty ground Funny how you mention negatives yet your post previous mentioned "looking like a washout for most tomorrow". What do you want me to say? Be one of those members who wants likes or be one who is just saying from what I am seeing. I might be wrong and Im hoping I'm wrong(and I have been before) but it's not going to stop me posting from what I am seeing. I'll be more than positive if I see true sustained proper cold blast, like we did a few weeks ago and not this transient half hearted affair. I mean the dew points across most of the region are above freezing so it's not really all that cold out there and yet I have seen comments in here we are in for 6+ hours of snowfall(!).
  11. Said a few days ago, the air coming down from the north is just a wishy washy type of polar airmass, it's not true cold unless 850s are -8 or below and only Scotland gets that type of air. I don't think there will be barely a frost tonight which rather sums it up. So apart from high ground, then it's looking like a cold damp miserable day with a raw easterly wind. It was always a transient event in anycase so even the hills in this region will be going from snow to rain. I think one thing to learn from this winter when looking at the models, a cold Scandinavia with low heights does very little to help our cold prospects, if anything it could be a hindrance but the lack of true blocking apart from that brief period which actually resulted in a true Arctic blast means we are always fighting against the odds.
  12. russwirral I can see it both ways, it is good too see how things have advanced that we can have more detailed forecasts but the downside is some takes the graphics too literally and get hung up with what they are showing. As I always say, it's what the radar says that counts the most. Going from experience, I'm expecting very little here due to the rainfall shadow affect, I don't think the air is all that cold either and there will be alot of mixing. I think PPN will be quite patchy to the west of the hills aswell and it could be one of those infamous days where the radar says PPN is falling but nothing is actually reaching the ground until it's too marginal. I be a bit more excited if I was living on much higher ground and maybe the Liverpool area but even then, any snowfall is likely to be transient.
  13. Dark Horse This Manchester snow shield is definately an odd phenomena but at least Manchester can make up for it when we do actually get the cold convective airmass. Shame the rain shadow affect will be impacting on things here also. I must be the only member who has not seen a decent covering of snow this winter(at least 3CMs or more) with missing out on the snow streamer in December and the PPN 3 weeks ago only arriving right on daylight hours and even then it was never consistent in intensity so we had no chance really before it turned back to rain. Anyways it will be interesting too see how this system develops but the fact it looks like a snow turning back to rain system does again make it feel a bit worthless but nevertheless if it's heavy snow falling out of your window then it's interesting whilst it lasts.
  14. The Northern Ramper Yeah which shows it's always been the same regardless and nothing will change but I got to say I am sick and tired of the same old every winter, people's frustrations of every run in winter, IMBY posts, the over zealous moderating and members from the north moaning about the southern bias from some members, I mean there is a valid reason why you want frontal events to be further south as that more than likely means the cold air winning out, it's not necessarily meaning they are bias because they live in the south. All that said I hated the dismissive nature of the northerly a few weeks ago just because in their eyes it's only Scotland that is in the snow risk. It was quite a potent northerly, true proper cold airmass. Of course if the Northerly was more of a NNE'ly it would be seen as much differently albeit for us reducing our snow risk significantly.
  15. That video is incredible and must of been scary to see how quickly it's spreads. Another thing I'm interested in is why did the models got the Maxes so wrong by quite a large amount. We had forecasts suggesting 42 even 43C being suggested by both UKMO and GFS models yet despite wall to wall sunshine and exceptionally dry conditions in eastern areas it only reached 40.3C(just imagine the reaction if we didn't reach 40C despite the forecasts). I think the saving grace with this plume was that it was largely a 2 day event but the warning signs are there and it's only likely to get worse in the years to come(if not here, just in the northern hemisphere in general).
  16. Derecho The chart you posted of course won't verify like that but as with the recent plume which bought the record breaking January temperature over Scotland, it's a warning sign that it's possible and as others alluded too, goodness knows what sort of temperatures we are going too see in the northern hemisphere this summer, going to be interesting for sure, whether the UK will benefit in any of that heat is of course a totally different matter. If the drought across Spain continues then a strong heat dome developing there looks almost certain. I think today's runs shows if something is wrong on the early part of the run you can scrap the rest of the run and also shows unless there is agreement across the board then nothing is guaranteed. Let's hope the lows can be a bit more "squashed" so somewhere in the UK can get a major snow event. Southern and the central belt of Scotland looks the most likely for this to happen.
  17. nick sussex The way your going on, you think it was showing high pressure at 96 hours to be replaced by low pressure. The reality is it's only a variation on how the low behaves and now both models are going with the GFS showing the more "bowling ball low" instead of the slider set up. Whilst what we are seeing now looks the most likely solution, there is still time for the minor details to change.
  18. I actually can't believe there is a mass widespread yellow warning for lower levels, we really are going so soft and it raises hype within the media. Just think rainfall shadow, not cold enough will all mean anywhere at lower levels is very unlikely to see anything significant. I so wish we are seeing true blocking in the charts with proper sustained colder air heading towards us, not all this wishy washy transient stuff. It's ashame the cold of 3 weeks ago collapsed the way it did but at least that was true proper cold Arctic air, not this half hearted affair for this week. On a side note, must be serious issues in the Highlands, has been non stop raining there by the looks of it. Thank goodness that river of moisture did not affect our parts of the region and whilst the rain will arrive tomorrow, it won't be sticking around.
  19. @WYorksWeather I think the issue for me and it's one climate deniers will argue is that this is a localised temperature anomaly aided by natural factors(fohen affect) and it does not truly reflect on what the temperatures were really like on the day itself(think for most areas temperatures ended up slightly lower than forecast). However one thing climate deniers can't argue is the temperatures at 850 level are very high for a continental airmass with high thicknesses over Spain recently and you can't help but feel this is a warning sign of things to come over the med.
  20. If I'm living Blackpool southwards I be somewhat looking forwards to what might develop tomorrow night, could be some quite heavy snow showers before dying out as the night goes on but that's when things will turn more marginal in anycase. One last hurrah before the Atlantic returns.
  21. Regarding tonight's prospects, then it's all down to when we lose the westerly feed, models indicate approximately midnight we lose it and winds should be more northerly by then(give or take, the switch obviously will occur in more northern parts of the region first). In terms precipitation then that is the biggest uncertainty although the trend would be things to turn drier as the night goes on but you just never know in these situations. I certainly wasn't expecting so little snowfall in the central belt(only going by the radar but seems like so far they have not seen much). If there is any PPN around as the winds switch then it does increases the chances of bringing the snow level down as winds should be slack as this occurs.
  22. At least you got a decent covering, we got a partial dusting and that's it, nothing what has been falling is laying at all. North Lancashire should be the (lying) snow free zone! It is interesting seeing these rainfall shadows though, sadly only occur when it's comes to snow than rain.
  23. No consistency in intensity, just moderate then lighter again but at least no signs of rain yet though.
  24. Still more than what I got but I feel your pain really. At least you should have some snow covered hills nearby I suspect by tomorrow morning at least, may even consider a visit to Cumbria just too hopefully see some significant snow on the ground it's that desperate!
  25. Definately the consolation prize as barely any of this snow is lying. Would love to be living on higher ground in Cumbria today!
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