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Geordiesnow

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Everything posted by Geordiesnow

  1. The 25C upper air temp did reach the UK during June(I think) but surface winds came off the North Sea so the temperatures were not as hot as they would of been if the air came off the continent. Back to the hear and now, some hints height rises will try and buckle the jet towards Russia thanks to the weak heights leaving the Arctic but not affecting our weather as of yet. Some chilly air is forecast but nothing substantial that there be much of a snow risk away from the higher ground although hopefully for some areas, it will mean brighter weather.
  2. Glad too see the GFS deep mega lows have been binned now, was quite comical too see even if the potential for a deep low was there but all models now agree it will be a shallow affair so no excitement there. Slight changes in the output as perhaps more polar maritime air could be forecast, just nothing overly cold and the ECM is keen on bringing those SW'lies in again. Slight wedge of heights leaving the Arctic has been picked up on recent runs but the affects on our weather looks minimal at best.
  3. There is really no excitement for the cold and snow lovers at all on the charts and January is certain will end up being virtually snowless for the vast majority. If anything the potential for a stormy low is more likely although the usual GFS weather bomb set ups it usually shows are quite laughable. Very little signs of the jet stream aligning in a WNW'ly to ESE'ly direction which at least may bring in decent polar air so instead we get modest cool air forecast mixed in with positive air at times. Looks like on both the GFS and ECM long range charts, the PV over the pole could strengthen even further than it already is although the usual cold bias could be playing a part here.
  4. We may of been defensive under Rafa but trust me this is much worse, we don't create chances, we really are the West Broms and Stoke Citys of the PL and negative teams such as ours don't deserve to be in the league. Sums it up whenever we try to play football, we either give it away, knocks out for a throw or a goal kick, lack of chemistry is a major concern and the constant injuries, always happens under Bruce no matter what excuse and club he is at. Dreadful. Edit: I should of rant more often!
  5. Nonsence! Wheres the evidence for that? This winter has just seen a more normal weather pattern across the northern hemisphere where the jet stream is fairly flat, the PV over the pole and Greenland is very strong and the mid latitudes lacking cold air. The Azores high is always there, sometimes it does move but the normal common pattern is for higher pressure to be to our south. Sick of hearing climate change is responsible for this that and the other, its the temperatures that are going up and certain set ups these days will be marginally warmer than they were 30 to 50 years ago. Looks like the Atlantic will be coming into play again after this dry spell, no real wintriness on the horizon either and time is starting to run out. Hopefully we will get one cold snowy spell before the winter is out, at least as a consolation prize for what we been through so far.
  6. Well of course it will, during Spring when the continents start to warm up. If the lack of snow cover continues over Europe then an early spring is possible. Rather sums up our winter this high pressure spell will bring in average to slightly above temperatures despite frosty nights and sunny days I'm afraid any cold and snow set ups are a long way off, really is very little signs of anything snowy showing.
  7. The northerly signal has more or less gone now but I always thought that was an outside chance in any case. What does seem to be a trend is for high pressure to stick around the UK for longer so a dry spell especially for southern areas could be on the cards. How much cloud becomes trapped under the high is the uncertainty at the moment
  8. I don't think a northerly can be ruled out but I would say it's just an outside chance. Most runs I seen just shows the high retrogressing westwards but can't go northwards because of the PV towards Greenland. Does mean our winter weather gets even more dull as an ever cloudier WNW'ly will develop and frost and fog potential decreases. I do think the outlook is perhaps more promising than it has been for the last 3 weeks especially though. Will it be a missed opportunity? That's the fear.
  9. So looks like high pressure is set to influence the weather although how much of an influence is still up to some debate. Most likely does seem to be the whole high won't land on top of the UK so eventually more cloud toppling in and making the high a more cloudy one. Some runs did have it more over us so chilly frosty weather is more widespread and the very odd run i seen has the high slightly to the east so picking up a more continental flow. Will the high retrogress to Greenland? History suggests no, I seen it for many years this type of set up and very rarely a Greenland high appears from this set up, anyways that lump of PV to the west of Greenland is not forecast to weaken so at this stage I don't think a Greenland high is likely unfortunately.
  10. Might be some signs of the PV weakening which may allow a ridge more towards Greenland but too me it's very tentitive and as far as the UK is concerned, the outlook has not changed to what we seen from most of this winter so far. If anything, quite mild air is once again is looking likely on some runs. Certainly nothing overly cold in the outputs showing I'm afraid.
  11. Indeed and with the continuous southerlies(apart from around 24 hours when a low pressure moves through before the Pacific ridge takes hold) forecast around the Bering Sea then I won't be surprised at seeing more losses occurring and for the Bering Sea extent to be on the low side again as it was in 2018 and 2019.
  12. Still remains a dire outlook for cold lovers it really must be said, the jet stream is on that WSW'ly to ENE'ly trajectory so even any polar airmasses won't be that cold either. Not overly stormy either, the same old story of whether that secondary low will deepen enough as it gets picked up by the jet stream as it heads towards the UK is the only interest for me. Today's runs would suggest it will be more of a run of the mill type than anything particularly interesting which rather sums up this winter unfortunately. Still no sign of any blocking appearing on the charts and it's a long old way before any significant cold heads our way.
  13. Is there though? I don't think the difference is all that great to be honest and the ice has only just formed so it will be very thin. Difference is these southerlies are coming in via a deep low rather than a ridge(For now) so the air wont be as warm but nonetheless the winds could well cause an retreat nonetheless.
  14. I wonder if we will see any losses again if/when the upcoming southerlies hit the Bering sea area soon. Reminds me a little bit of last year where as soon as the winds turned, the ice melted/compacted quite quickly leaving the bering sea almost ice free. Whilst the weather may not of been much overly much above average this winter season, alot of the wind direction has the ice heading towards the pole and towards the fram Stright, leaving the Pacific side of the basin more vulnable perhaps. Also due to not much in the way of high pressure so far this winter(unlike Autumn) we may not have as much fast ice(ice forming against landmasses) forming in the ESS so far(there was less fast ice in 2019 compared to 2018) and fast ice is more harder to melt than normal ice, one too keep an eye on though.
  15. I'm surprised despite some milder weather that people are seeing signs of spring alll ready. Havant really noticed the grass growing around here, that may change on Tuesday mind with that exceptionally tropical air heading our way! Hopefully Spring won't be too early though like it was last year with that exceptional spell of weather we saw in February!
  16. It is a right old rut at the moment, we only get tentitve signs of height rises to the NE but then a few runs later its gone again. I can't see much sign of a pattern change of a zonal jet right over us. We can't even get much polar air at the moment as the jetstream angle is unfavourable.
  17. Oh come on WiB, it's winter, a strong jet stream across the northern hemisphere is a more NORMAL pattern than a slower wavey jet stream which sends well above average temperatures at higher latitudes and much lower than normal temperatures at lower latitudes and we get told that pattern is down to climate change also! At the moment it looks a bit of a long way before any significant snow potential occurs, as others noted if the slightly more amplified GFS is right we may get slightly colder weather than the ECM/UKMO runs would suggest. Do bear in mind the GFS has a cold bias as it gets further forward in the output so I don't think the uppers will get as low as its suggesting sadly.
  18. Climate change has nothing to do with the flat northern hemisphere pattern we have at the moment so don't link the two together. This is a normal weather pattern for winter, not weather patterns which sends WAA all the way to the pole bringing 20 to 30C above average temperatures which in turns bring the phrase of Arctic amplification into play. It's frustrating as a cold snow lover too see the charts at the moment but it's what it is. It can change but if or when that will be then who knows. Chance of some polar air heading down via the toppler but how much heads southwards is up for debate. Either way, snowfall looks very limited by this set up.
  19. You can see the hints the models are trying to perhaps change the pattern but it's not quite there. Do find the pattern of low pressure systems bumping into high and then dissolving quite interesting to watch. May help to bring marginally cooler air and if the high is more over the UK then a widespread frost can't be ruled out. No signs of any snowfall though but still time for that to arrive.
  20. Oh come on, semi permenant feature? If anything charts like this has been a rarity and it seems like too me the med(especially the western med) has been more stormy during that timeframe than perhaps in the past, I certainly seen less bartlett highs in the charts than not. Anyways, high pressure to the south, low pressure to the north is a perfectly normal weather pattern to witness, its one of those things, plenty time still for cold wintry weather to occur. In terms of how cloudy this set up will be, I think the most cloudy weather will be for more northern and western areas whereas further south and east could see more sunshine although any fog risk will scupper that. The highest temperatures will be the further northwards and westwards also, be interesting what temperatures will be reached if the fohen affect comes into play.
  21. Be interesting too see what the temperatures will be if that Euro ridge has a proper influence over the UK, maybe record breaking potential perhaps? A slight shift in orientation could mean slightly cooler temps especially the further south and east you are. The temperature anaomolies across Europe are astonishing, warming world, lack of snow cover all contributing to depressingly above average temperatures all across Europe.
  22. Nice little stat this is. There was more yellow cards(6) than there was shots(5) in the Bournmouth Burnley game. Surely goes down as one of the worst games in PL history?
  23. Persistent high pressure over Beaufort and open water over Chuckchi has meant so far this December it's been well above average temperatures across the pacific side of the basin, really does not bode well for the Pacific side of the basin come summer time. Hints this may change but the models are struggling with the placement of the high and the PV that may travel around it. When will the Bering Stright completely freeze over also, its a complete struggle and that of course means it impacts how much ice may form in the Bering Sea. Let's just hope we don't get another February 2019 where southerly winds dominated this area and resulted in that impressive melting we saw then.
  24. Yes and I missed it, I had seen your post 2 hours after you posted it and there was evidence of snowfall on cars and the bins so must of came down quite thick for it to settle somewhat. Sadly when I looked so, it turned back to rain. I was not too interested in this event as the temps looked too high but kinda wish I was now!
  25. On the face of it, I can see why some people are not excited but I can also see why some are excited by the output. Very little signs of significant cold heading our way but it is one of those if things do fall into play, we may start tapping into some colder air from the NE as per the GEM run Would add though my first impressions of the UKMO run was one of disappointment as the low in the Atlantic does not look like it would be squashed and try to slide, even the ECM looks a bit better in this regard but turned out unremarkable. See how it develops in the coming days.
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