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Geordiesnow

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Geordiesnow last won the day on July 5 2011

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  1. Spah1 Think that's the issue though, if there was more colder air in play, I think the low may of 'slide' more and perhaps any PPN missing us because the cold air is acting as a block/deflector. Even if the PPN did reach us and we were in colder air, would there be less PPN around on our side of the hills as of course cold air is also drier air so the rain shadow affect may of come into play more(which is what the models did seem to initially hint at). Seems like from my limited experience of living here, a frontal snow event coming up from the south/South West could be almost impossible meteologically because of the factors I mentioned and the sleety/wet snow type is the best i can hope for. Of course I'm talking mainly IMBY here, places like Liverpool would be in a better spot for sure as the rain shadow is far less pronounced.
  2. damianslaw Intensity has increased here on average but it's inconsistent although I do love watching the downdrafts of a heavier bursts. I do reckon parts of Cumbria could do quite well if intensity improves also, be shocked if there is no decent covering on the hills over there.
  3. Gary L Don't think it makes a difference, we needed more cold air to flood down and for overnight temperatures to be lower than what they were. Of some interest for members to the north of me and on higher ground, despite PPN being light, there is a sleety element to it. Intensity is of course an issue but maybe a good sign for higher parts of Cumbria later on.
  4. Joe Bloggs If the air was colder(negative DP), it would be drier therefore a rainfall shadow would be more obvious but because the air is not that cold the shadow is less pronounced although clearly going by reports there is some evaporation going on so it's not a massive of PPN as the radar suggests.
  5. damianslaw Evaporating before reaching the ground, the usual when conditions are right but the air is to dry!
  6. Joe Snow Oh for higher ground in terms of the Pennines, it should be snow, I'm not writing that off, I'm on about lower levels in the north west where the PPN looked more patchy but now the models saying it's going to be mostly rain, the shadow is much less obvious.
  7. Day 10 I'm also noticing on the recent PPN charts now rain seems to be the order of the day, the rain shadow has also disappeared and it's looking more like a solid band of PPN again.
  8. frosty ground I certainly never intended to come across that way all I said the Arctic airmass coming down was just a "wishy washy" type with 850s not being particularly low. In all honesty I don't even think it comes across that way and not quite sure why you interpret it that way? Let's hope I'm wrong and there is some surprises of at least people seeing snow falling before it reverts back to rain.
  9. Day 10 Obviously it coming in the daytime does not help things either. It would seem the best scenario for frontal snow in this region is a front coming in from the West into cold air with little or no wind. I've lived here since 2015 and I don't recall ever seeing a significant frontal snow event although I think it's always much tougher up here because the rain shadow affect will come into play whilst those further south and especially in the Liverpool area. Hopefully it will happen again one day as too often it seems the cold breaks down without much of a significant snow event and not just in this region but UK wide.
  10. frosty ground Funny how you mention negatives yet your post previous mentioned "looking like a washout for most tomorrow". What do you want me to say? Be one of those members who wants likes or be one who is just saying from what I am seeing. I might be wrong and Im hoping I'm wrong(and I have been before) but it's not going to stop me posting from what I am seeing. I'll be more than positive if I see true sustained proper cold blast, like we did a few weeks ago and not this transient half hearted affair. I mean the dew points across most of the region are above freezing so it's not really all that cold out there and yet I have seen comments in here we are in for 6+ hours of snowfall(!).
  11. Said a few days ago, the air coming down from the north is just a wishy washy type of polar airmass, it's not true cold unless 850s are -8 or below and only Scotland gets that type of air. I don't think there will be barely a frost tonight which rather sums it up. So apart from high ground, then it's looking like a cold damp miserable day with a raw easterly wind. It was always a transient event in anycase so even the hills in this region will be going from snow to rain. I think one thing to learn from this winter when looking at the models, a cold Scandinavia with low heights does very little to help our cold prospects, if anything it could be a hindrance but the lack of true blocking apart from that brief period which actually resulted in a true Arctic blast means we are always fighting against the odds.
  12. russwirral I can see it both ways, it is good too see how things have advanced that we can have more detailed forecasts but the downside is some takes the graphics too literally and get hung up with what they are showing. As I always say, it's what the radar says that counts the most. Going from experience, I'm expecting very little here due to the rainfall shadow affect, I don't think the air is all that cold either and there will be alot of mixing. I think PPN will be quite patchy to the west of the hills aswell and it could be one of those infamous days where the radar says PPN is falling but nothing is actually reaching the ground until it's too marginal. I be a bit more excited if I was living on much higher ground and maybe the Liverpool area but even then, any snowfall is likely to be transient.
  13. Dark Horse This Manchester snow shield is definately an odd phenomena but at least Manchester can make up for it when we do actually get the cold convective airmass. Shame the rain shadow affect will be impacting on things here also. I must be the only member who has not seen a decent covering of snow this winter(at least 3CMs or more) with missing out on the snow streamer in December and the PPN 3 weeks ago only arriving right on daylight hours and even then it was never consistent in intensity so we had no chance really before it turned back to rain. Anyways it will be interesting too see how this system develops but the fact it looks like a snow turning back to rain system does again make it feel a bit worthless but nevertheless if it's heavy snow falling out of your window then it's interesting whilst it lasts.
  14. The Northern Ramper Yeah which shows it's always been the same regardless and nothing will change but I got to say I am sick and tired of the same old every winter, people's frustrations of every run in winter, IMBY posts, the over zealous moderating and members from the north moaning about the southern bias from some members, I mean there is a valid reason why you want frontal events to be further south as that more than likely means the cold air winning out, it's not necessarily meaning they are bias because they live in the south. All that said I hated the dismissive nature of the northerly a few weeks ago just because in their eyes it's only Scotland that is in the snow risk. It was quite a potent northerly, true proper cold airmass. Of course if the Northerly was more of a NNE'ly it would be seen as much differently albeit for us reducing our snow risk significantly.
  15. That video is incredible and must of been scary to see how quickly it's spreads. Another thing I'm interested in is why did the models got the Maxes so wrong by quite a large amount. We had forecasts suggesting 42 even 43C being suggested by both UKMO and GFS models yet despite wall to wall sunshine and exceptionally dry conditions in eastern areas it only reached 40.3C(just imagine the reaction if we didn't reach 40C despite the forecasts). I think the saving grace with this plume was that it was largely a 2 day event but the warning signs are there and it's only likely to get worse in the years to come(if not here, just in the northern hemisphere in general).
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