Jack Wales

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About Jack Wales

  • Birthday 09/02/73

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    Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Interests
    Weather<br />Particle Physics<br />Astronomy<br />Ten Pin Bowling<br />Football - Swansea City
  1. Yes, looking very impressive at long last. Could make landfall as a cat2. At least that coastal region of florida is sparsely populated which will hopefully mitigate the damage to property and lives.
  2. 99l is a heavily sheared system at the moment. The low level centre appears to be over the turk and caicos islands with all the convection sheared well to the south over southern Hispanola. With the shear only forecast to reduce somewhat it's less likely a TD will form in the next few days at least.
  3. Hi Nouska, yes I'm still in Florida and eagerly watching the models. As you say it's interesting that ECM is the most bullish with regards to development of this system. The satellite images from this morning indicate 99l has tightened up with a more defined and seemingly closed rotation in place. I wouldn't be surprised if this is upgraded to a TD today...
  4. 99l is definitely firing up with very cold cloud tops and signs of it beginning to establish a circulation. Proximity of dry air doesn't seem to be affecting the system at the moment and with it moving into a much more favourable environment, there's definitely scope for significant intensificstion by the end of the week. What's more of a concern is that models are becoming more aligned with the forecast track taking 99l across the Bahamas and Florida.
  5. HI I'm currently in Florida so watching both 99l and 90l with great interest. The Atlantic ridge into the USA seems to be robust so it's likely that both systems will end up close to my location. The only mitigating factors appear to be dry air entrainment... Any thoughts anyone?
  6. Hi, as i see it this winter has a strong chance of being mild to very mild. The siginificantly positive enso coupled with the positive and strong QBO signal usually combine to override other factors such as Atlantic SST's. I hope I'm wrong but wouldn't be surprised to see the N'ly tracking jet / bartlett scenario prevail for longer periods this winter.
  7. Thunder snow in Tonyrefail :-) currently 0.8 c
  8. I suspect a cold end to the month so I'll go for 3.8C
  9. Yes, deep cold and -40C widely being recorded across canada at the lower latitudes (50 to 55 deg north), -46C in parts of Quebec. Currently approaching -30C in parts of Newfoundland!
  10. Hi BFTV, Yes, the CPC have been forecasting ENSO neutral for a while now, however I can't help but feel they're underestimating the potential for La Nina. A visual observation of the Pacific is clearly indicitave of a developing La Nina, which is backed up by increased negative anomalies across the ENSO Zone... ENSO 1&2: -1.6C ENSO 2 -0.5C ENSO 3 -0.1C ENSO 4 no anomaly As I say, the longer the low level easterlies remain in place, the more scope there will be for the negative anomalies to propagate to the key 3.4 region. However MJO activity is on the rise and tropical convection is projected to emerge in a pattern consistent with MJO phase 8. This (to me) suggests a greater possibility for scrubbing of the low level easterlies by the end of the month as the atmpspheric pattern is not (yet anyway) consistent with La Nina. It's definately on a knife edge at the moment with some conflicting signals but I believe there is more reason to be hopeful for more 'summery' spells this summer. I'll try and spend some time on this over the weekend and hopefully post something more substantial.
  11. Just thought I’d post some quick thoughts in here with summer now very much on the horizon… Following on from my recent post in the ‘Summer’ thread, the northern hemispheric pattern appears to be reflecting the recent ENSO neutral and positive AAM pattern; this combined with increased MJO activity and the recently favourable Atlantic SST profile should teleconnect with a northerly displaced Azores high with heights / ridging towards Scandinavia. This type of pattern now falls into the modelling timeframe and with the PV finally diminishing; this type of pattern is being picked up from around T+204. This chart at GFS T+324 shows the kind of synoptics which should set the scene for late May and into early June with heights ridging up from the Azores… http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130516/00/336/airpressure.png This is also reinforced up by the surface heights ensembles with the mean levels forecast at around 1020 mb from around T+240 onwards…. Going forward into late June and the rest of summer, I have some concerns in that the ENSO pattern is trending to more negative tendencies (La Nina) which would be less conducive for settled conditions over NW Europe. Here are the latest SST’s where you can clearly observe the negative anomalies propagating westward towards Nina 3.4… http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-130512.gif The eagle eyed may also notice that the Atlantic SST profile is not looking quite as favourable as it was just a couple of weeks ago. There are no signs yet that the atmosphere is starting to re-embrace La Nina, e.g. one of the firsts indications would be for Total Angular Momentum to plummet to negative values, whereas at present the latest AAM data is still positive... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltotaam.sig.90day.gif If the upper level westerlies can filter down and scrub the lower level easterlies currently prevalent over the equatorial pacific (and assisting the ENSO- trend), this could halt La Nina in its tracks. An amplified MJO could also help facilitate this, so in my opinion the next couple of weeks could be crucial in terms of what the building blocks for this summer will be.
  12. Interesting thoughts SB, the models were all going for another La-nina summer but the apparent dissapation of ENSO -ve anomolies in the pacific seem to have taken them all by surprise. If you look at the current SST profile, I'd say that only the Nino4 region is still enso -ve with the other regions either displaying neutral or even +ve anomolies in region1/2... The live daily chart seems to continue the trend... http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar Which also seems to be well supported by the sub surface pattern (notice from the time lapse the rapid swing from of -'ve to +'ve anaomolies)... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml As you say it would be unusual to see an El Nino in tandem with an e'ly QBO but the current pattern shift at least gives me some hope that all may not be lost for this summer :-)