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Everything posted by Don

  1. So the NE Pacific was also warm at this time in 2010! I'm surprised by that, but feel a little better about this year now! Do you have any concerns about this warm September being a poor sign for the upcoming winter?
  2. Mid to high 15's after corrections would be my guess currently for this month.
  3. Lets hope so and if the CET is kicked back into the 14's, my guess of 14.5C will be in with a chance!
  4. These LRF models have been disappointing so far for those wanting a cold winter. However, very early days and plenty of time for changes. A winter similar to last year wouldn't be so bad, but would be prefer to have more snow in the south!
  5. I get the impression you are becoming less optimistic for the winter CC? However, those above average SST's in the NE Pacific have moderated a bit this last week and hopefully this will continue. We will have to see!
  6. A winter month with a 10C+ CET?! I hope these words don't come back to haunt me in a few months!
  7. This is true, but I would still rather not have a notably warm September being a cold winter lover! However, I would recommend watching Gavin's latest winter update as it also covers those September's followed by cold winters.
  8. As many of you know, I've never been a fan of notably warm September's as they tend to be bad news for the following winter if you want it cold! Gavin Partridge has done some analysis on this in his latest winter update and although there is only a small data set for 16C+ September's going back to 1659, they were all followed by mild to very mild winters!
  9. Those who are enjoying this warm September but want a cold winter had better hope for some much cooler weather in the second half of the month (not looking likely with the current model output) as Gavin Partridge has done some analysis in his winter update today and the overall signal for warm Septembers is bad news if you want a cold winter to follow!
  10. To be honest I'm ready for autumn now, even though despite being warm, summer was nothing to write home about! I just hope we don't revert to full zonality in time for winter!
  11. Highly likely, maybe the odd 31C in favored spots?
  12. There seems to be a number of models singing from the same hymn sheet now. Just hope it's the wrong one! Very early days anyway but I would like to see those warm anomalies in the NE Pacific dissipate, otherwise like you say could scupper our chances of a genuinely cold winter which would be a pity, especially considering we have a number of other factors in our favor.
  13. Yes that warm anomaly in the NE Pacific needs to do one! Also, not overly keen on how this September is shaping up currently either......
  14. Well, I for one am hoping that September won't be very warm overall, but what will be will be...... And yes, September last year was generally warm until the final week when it turned much cooler, lowering the final CET to near average!
  15. Haha, very true, especially in the snow dome where I grew up!
  16. I know, but it would be good to see it cool in time for this winter, giving us a stronger chance of a genuine cold season, particularly as many other signals are positive.
  17. That's one brief dusting of snow more than I had that winter, didn't see a flake!
  18. I would have thought so, possibly higher in some favored spots?
  19. Yes, that has been an issue for many winters since 2013. Hopefully those warm temps in the North Eastern Pacific will relent somewhat during the next few months!
  20. February could also hold some interest, although that high needs to be further north for anything sustained. Too far off of course to be taken seriously!
  21. Yes, August 2021 will be a month one will struggle to remember weather wise!
  22. I really haven't the foggiest but lets say 14.5C and 80mm.
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