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  1. December 1985 was a very mild month overall, but it did turn very cold just after Christmas with a little snow. Christmas 1988 was very mild. I got a digital thermometer that year and the temperatures were regularly topping 13C during the festive period!
  2. Given the way the models have flip flopped around recently, I think they're right to be uncertain!
  3. The potential cold continues to be downgraded as expected.
  4. Another year and nothing seems to have changed........ The 2008-2013 period is well and truly behind us.
  5. Maybe not, but perhaps better news for cooling global temperatures?
  6. Thanks as always for a detailed forecast, Ian. I will not be too unhappy if it comes off, after the last few winters we have had to endure!
  7. Yes, I have that feeling, in terms of a proper cold spell anyway. The November update from GLOSEA 5 shows no improvement over last month for the winter period if you like it cold.
  8. The Seasonal Forecast Thread

    Oh dear, where’s the sick bag?! There is no denying the GLOSEA 5 has been consistent for several months now. My fears of a 1988/89 type winter could be well founded!
  9. Lets just hope that any early cold comes off this year, unlike last. I mean by that genuinely wintry conditions and not just a period of frost.
  10. I mentioned in the winter forecast thread a couple days ago that one such year has been bugging me and that's 1988. November that year had a cold final third with snow for some including parts of the south. However, we know what the following winter of 1988/89 was like. That CFS December pressure chart illustrates something similar happening. Just one model of course but can't be discounted.
  11. Yes, it's always a concern when the UKMO goes against the GFS and ECM.
  12. Seems to be a bit more uncertainty with this update. To be expected at this range though.
  13. With the current interest for a possible genuine cold snap later this month, one year bugs me a little, 1988. November of that year had a cold wintry spell during the final third with snow for a fair few, even parts of the south, but look what kind of winter followed...... However, that said, winter did return with a vengeance in April 1989, but you know what I'm getting at! Not saying the same will happen this year but was wondering what the back ground signals were like back in November 1988? Didn't we also have a La Nina back then for example? I would be interested to hear people's views on what similarities we currently have to that year.
  14. They did indeed and they were absolutely spot on! I think around mid November they started forecasting a possible very cold spell developing late in the month lasting well into December. Unfortunately, their forecast in late December 2010 for a cold January didn't go so well. GP had an excellent winter forecast that year, correctly predicting the deep cold to lose its grip in late December and not return, with a very mild February to follow an average January.