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Iceberg

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Iceberg last won the day on December 20 2016

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    Weather<br />Climate Change<br />Economics World Politics

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  1. Iceberg

    Hurricane Florence

    The eye has made landfall at willmington. Much as the ec has predicted for many days. Winds over 100mph reported. Small miracle that Florence failed to organise correctly after her erc. The difference between 100 and 150 mph winds is huge. Winds might well get a little high. Max rain is currently 17inches roughly. Maybe a few places a bit higher but of course the eye has only just made it to the coast. Last post from me as I don’t really like the affects and from a weather POV it’s all over for Florence as a hurricane. Tha damage and death toll will be severe though.
  2. Iceberg

    Hurricane Florence

    Sorry went to bed but here are the the adt Dvorak as well. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt06L.html raw t dropped when I went to sleep , recon came in and looking at loops she ingested a lot of dry air. that has now mixed out at t numbers are increasing again Back to 6.2. Recon has been very bad so far roughly every 12 hrs. I know that some have been cancelled due to other issues but for one of the largest hurricanes hitting the east coast in years it’s a shame they this level of lack of funding and resources. Some winds. Sustained 3 hr gusts as they will cause the damage they are very bad for over qtr of a million people. The storm surge will be huge for a storm sitting off the coast. This is one of the biggest shiping areas and the docks and any boats that don’t leave could well be destroyed leading to a loss of a lot of industry. Rain will be a major issue and from experience they are pretty rubbish at predicting it even 24 hrs out as outflow and bands just won’t be placed. Forecasts to this point will be very generic imho.
  3. Iceberg

    Hurricane Florence

    T numbers have just gone to 6.3. And 6.4. 7.0 is a clear cat 5.
  4. Iceberg

    Hurricane Florence

    Yes strictly. On the below they are saying at 2pm thur she will be a cat 4. Over the next 24hrs from that she will be sat approx 3-4 miles off shore as a cat 3. But you have to remember the eye is currently 30 miles across and the hurricane winds 100 miles. The eye wall will be 5-10 miles out from the edge of the eye. So for all purposes Wilmington for example will have 24 hrs of cat 4 winds before the hurricane slows down to only 100kts before the centre reaches the coast. I’ll be honest, looking At this I would expect 70-80% of the city of Wilmington to be destroyed.
  5. Iceberg

    Hurricane Florence

    So they have raised her to 120kt which they agree could be conservative, T numbers have increased a touch since this update was written. Very bad news that the storm is bigger with bigger wind radius than they thought. Tbh it’s difficult for things to get much worse for the Carolinas. Unless of corse recon go in and find a cat 5. Microwave satellite data indicate that Florence completed a full eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) a few hours ago, and recent visible and infrared imagery suggests that the eye has contracted slightly. Outflow continues to expand in all quadrants, and the outflow jets to the northwest and east have become better defined. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT are all T6.0/115 kt, and recent NHC objective intensity estimates are T6.2/120 kt. Given that the eye has mostly cleared out and has also warmed to near 19 deg C, the initial intensity has been bumped upward to 120 kt, which could be conservative. All of the wind radii had to be expanded/increased based on a blend of the earlier reconnaissance data and a 1430 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass.
  6. Iceberg

    Hurricane Florence

    Meto mogreps ens after with the ec. The sharp turn back down the coast is clearly visible in most of them. Yikes! florence atm has the highest dvorak t rating that it’s had from adt at 6.2. The system is going through some deep intensification currently. With multiple tornados in the eye wall. Still no recon for ages but I think we might have flight winds if 160-170kts and surface winds of 125-135kts. Ie I think this is right on the edge of a cat 5 at the moment. Without recon I am hearing that nhc are about to up her to 120kts which is conservative.
  7. Iceberg

    Hurricane Florence

    Ec has taken a nasty twist. It stalls the system just offshore with the eye over water but the eye wall just reaching land for 2-3 days Rainfall totals. Some areas 1m of rain. Wilmington for example has gusts of 100mph or more continuously for nearly 48 hrs
  8. Iceberg

    Hurricane Florence

    Couple of pics from a few mins ago. Shame there is no recon in her atm
  9. Iceberg

    Hurricane Florence

    Pressure looks to be falling again down from 952 to 950. Deep connective ring again around the new 3-4 Times the size eye.
  10. Iceberg

    Hurricane Florence

    ALso these from the set prior. Thats 17 recording in a row of flight winds over 100kt in a single sector.
  11. Iceberg

    Hurricane Florence

    Probably the most freightening thing I’ve seen today from Florence. Flight winds of 143kts with high winds either side indicating a very strong ne quad eye wall. With surface winds yet to respond Given the disorganisation still in the eye this will only go up considerably.
  12. Iceberg

    Hurricane Florence

    Rainfall and surges are the biggest issues, but the wind could cause the longest timeframe damage. Often under a cat 1-3 hurricane winds are actually pretty isolated to a small 5-20m range. For Florence this could well be 100-120m. With the most destructive winds capable of destroying buildings over 60 miles. The pressure is a driving force behind storm surge as well.
  13. Iceberg

    Hurricane Florence

    Ne quad sampled in the last 5 mins. 112kts max. Just enough barely to support a 115kts cat 4.
  14. Iceberg

    Hurricane Florence

    Recon are doing a run, first for nearly 12 hrs though the eye. Max winds around 100kts so back to a cat 3 from that. Higher winds will probably be found in the ne quad though that support a cat 4. Pressure rise to 952mb. No surprised given the large 40-50m eye that’s teying to form. If that does form then a pressure fall to 920-925mb could well be on the cards, Florence is very much trying to put the building blocks in place for a run at cat 5. Big question is will it work or will she continue to struggle. Crunch 12 hrs coming up.
  15. Iceberg

    Hurricane Florence

    Erc still ongoing. She continues to keep trying.
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