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Iceberg last won the day on September 1 2019

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  1. NHC have just officially raised it back to a Major Cat 3 storm 100kts but with more strengthening to come. I can’t see how a cat 4 won’t happen personally and raw T numbers are 6.7 only .3 Below a cat 5. Which is possible but unlikely DELTA REGAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...
  2. 6 recordings of flight winds between 110-120kt in the NE wall. Major again at next advisory
  3. Pressure just recorded of 954-955mb quite a bit lower than the last update of 966mb
  4. Raw T numbers correspond to a mid Cat 4, adj to a low-end cat 4. Deeping and drying eye. Hot towers and very cold. Cloud tops. Delta is strengthening rapidly. Recon should pass just before the next update, but a Major is very likely imo.
  5. Quite stunning Ssts are only in their 28e and are about 1c above average without this a cat 5 would be possible... He is still getting stronger on Sat and dvorak. Path still a concern for us. latest nhc now with a forecast point on the Irish coast. Gfs much further West and out of the cone...
  6. Looks like Humberto will be upgraded to a Major hurricane in the next advisory. Recon have found pressure just sub 950mb. With winds of 100kts. So Cat 3. TS winds from some estimates cover 350 miles so he is really growing big.
  7. Pressure 959mb in the first pass for a while and winds of 85 kts if the eye ever got really organised this would be very top end....but atm it's not They had quite a small system...ec takes the energy up to iceland by t144th t168th. Gfs keeps it adrift mid Atlantic as it gets cut of from the jet. where it gets picked up at t120 is quite uncertain imo.
  8. Well I never. Raw adt Dvorak has just jumped to T6.1. This is in response to the clearing eye. This would equate to a Cat 4. Which he certainly isn’t. But does clearly suggest some very rapid intensification is happening. How will a very large powerful hurricane that isn’t currently being modelling well by the globals affect our side of the woods? I wonder!
  9. Pressure just recorded at 978mb and winds of 75kts maybe 80kts. From recon. Hes quite a big bugger.
  10. Pressure recorded of sub 990mb. But probably still around 990mb. Still a nice stop. Radar still shows the eye open. But he’s looking impressive.
  11. Humberto has really struggled shear and dry air since he started. Also his circulation was poor. However the last 12 hrs has seen this lessen dramatically. A solid cdo has formed and banding is evident. radar from Florida indicates a nice eye forming. Currently open at 20% in the nw of the eye wall but decent enough...for pressure falls. Recon have just entered and pressure has fallen a bit to 995mb. he will need a close eye for the next 24 hrs
  12. This morning Dorian reached 954mb and 117it flight winds which was a clear car 3 and back to being a Major. however since then dry air has opened the eye up and I can only really see him declining.
  13. Latest nhc just released "Dorian has become a little better organized during the past several hours, with the eye becoming somewhat more distinct and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall becoming more symmetric."
  14. In th last few hrs Dorian has started to rapidly intensify again imo. pressure has started falling and flight winds are just starting to respond again. Dvorak numbers are increasing from 3.5\4.0 to 6.1 There is still an open eye to the East but convective banding is impressive. if and that an IF Dorian closes the eye then a RI WILL occur as it moves closer to NC
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