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tcc

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  1. tcc
    Here's the blog I was talking about: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preliminary-winter-2013-15-outlook.html
  2. tcc
  3. tcc
    If anyone is on twitter, there is an interesting early thoughts from a Amateur I believe called "blizzardof96". He actually goes into detail for a load of different teleconnections and shows us the analog charts. He is focussed on US/Canada but you can see what the charts show for us here. I'm hoping (from a coldies perspective) that he's right!
  4. tcc
    In a nutshell, yes! Although the reasons as to why it was so cold are still open for debate, teleconnections such as a +QBO, SSTs, active sunspot activity, BDC, (movement of ozone), ENSO etc all played a part I believe. This year does look a lot more promising for cold weather for this corner of our world. One of the reasons is that we'll be in a strong -QBO, (see opening post for explanation, basically helps with Northerly Blocking), at most a moderate El Nino (although there are doubts as to how much of an influence this has on our weather) and waning sunspot activity. Obviously at this early stage we can't be sure as to what's going to happen, but I'm a lot more hopeful of seeing some of the white stuff this year down here!
  5. tcc
    Yes Brighton, Hove along to Worthing I believe have had constant storms. Lots of flooding and some of the vids on Twitter where the roads are rivers in Hove I think were unbelievable! I could hear the Thunder from about 7am but no rain until about 15min ago. Classic case of a convergence zone I believe, Nick how long is it due to last?
  6. tcc
    Classic early stages of building storms. Looked about half an hour to miss us here in Crawley to our North, tantalisingly close. However in the last 10 min it's got darker and now bursts of heavy rain.
  7. tcc
    Certainly some rather large cumulus around here as well, maybe an isolated shower/storm later?
  8. tcc
    All of the action to my east, nice to see the lightning and hear a few of the louder roars! A few spits of rain but that's it. East Sussex, Kent northwards are/will be having fun! Don't know if that's it for my part of the world but after last night, it doesn't matter!
  9. tcc
    have heard two lots of thunder this morning from one cell over north Sussex
  10. tcc
    Heard two bits of Thunder and saw one strike from the cell just brushing past Crawley. Not much rain as more over Horsham I think. All heading north!
  11. tcc
    It looks like heading NW so anywhere from IOW north westwards could see some fun and games (if it holds). The thing then is leftover cloud tomorrow!
  12. tcc
    Looks very dark to my west from Crawley, we've only had a quick hail shower around 2pm, everything else has developed after it left here!
  13. tcc
    Just having what looks like a soft hail/wet snow shower! Most wintry weather I've seen since last March! Nice to see
  14. tcc
    That will be alot of areas!
  15. tcc
    Someone more knowledgeable than me will update you but I believe one of the triggers will be the Rossby waves changing it's length. Also the jet stream "should" change it's direction, generally in Winter the jet stream is at it's furthest point south, then as Spring turns into summer the jet stream heads north as the boundary between cold and warm changes.
  16. tcc
    I would say a bit of both! Fascinating as in how the pattern has been locked in for so long, and how strong the jet has managed to get (record levels I believe?), and the records for the amount of wind, and the records for wave heights off the South West. It's been compelling viewing for all the wrong reasons, just hope that at some point in the next few weeks we get the other side of the coin, a nice sunny dry spring would go down lovely!
  17. tcc
    Thanks for the update Storme! I work in London rd just south of Charlwood/Gatwick and my boys are with the inlaws at the moment in ifield Green who live next to the river (Mole is it?) It flooded before Xmas but so far so good! I'll be surprised if it still hadn't flooded by end of Sat though!
  18. tcc
  19. tcc
    Patience is needed at this stage, remember the signal has been pretty weak for the end of next week for the block to stay put. So to suddenly find in the last couple of the signal for blocking becoming more prevalent requires monitoring at this stage. If the signal is consistent and grows stronger over the next 24/48 hours then you'll see a step change in the updates.
  20. tcc
    I've heard that Northbound traffic is now open, although with severe delays, southbound still closed (as of 20 min ago)
  21. tcc
    Horrendous driving conditions round here! Practically eveyr single road is either flooded and passable with care. The Police have closed off a number of roads round here and Gatwick due to flooding and the rivers are just breaching their banks again. Dropped off my youngest at the in-laws with the river swollen and in the garden! Not sure how much more it'll rise, hopefully not like it was before Xmas. People coming into work in dribs and drabs after leaving Brighton by Train or car before 7am and just getting in now! If anyone thinks about driving anywhere under that train of showers then think again, you could stuck!
  22. tcc
    Not good news for us down here, this from Ian - Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 1hFurther afield, tomorrow night could yield troublesome rain amounts from approx Isle of Wight eastwards through #Sussex and south of London
  23. tcc
    Natures fireworks are going on in the channel at the moment, not sure whether the storms will still be active by the time they reach here but you never know! Happy New Year to everyone, going to bed soon got a nasty cold which isn't shifting! The pregnant missus has it as well but at least I can take some drugs for mine!
  24. tcc
    Some heavy showers this morning with a bit of hail, and I'm sure I heard thunder a few min ago! The power at the inlaws in Ifield came back on around 8 this morning, but no heating (gas) so we're still not sure where xmas dinner is going to be held! At least my two boys are enjoying their Robofish and DinoBite game! Hopefully everyone has and is having a great xmas day!
  25. tcc
    In-laws still without power, looking unlikely they'll get it for tomorrow now! They had to break the garage window to get the frozen food out and it's now at my sister in laws place. If the power is not back then she's going to cook for the whole family! Poor thing! Oh we've just had some lightning and thunder! What a day!
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