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tcc

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  1. tcc
    quick question for you guys who know Oldham well! I'm driving up from Crawley tomorrow morning early to pick up a car from a dealer around 9am ish, based on the warning given, is Oldham prone to accumulations of snow? Just wondering what time to leave! Thinking around 4am
  2. tcc
    Just a quick question for the resident experts on here, but the output we're seeing on GFS for later on this month, isn't this just a consequence of the GFS MJO forecast reaching 7 and 8? Which none of the others are showing as getting this far? So how much faith do we put in this trend from GFS? I guess we'll have to wait and see when ECM brings but I'm not confident yet!
  3. tcc
    Easy for you to say Matt...you've seen some snow!
  4. tcc
    Forget the "is it going to snow in my backyard" for a second and look at those wind arrows! Dangerous storm that could be which I should imagine ties in with Ian F twitter comments earlier. Gales, (storm surge in North Sea) Rain and northern Snow in that system, not nice.
  5. tcc
    That's what I was going to say! I distinctly remember Ed having to explain that the Feb 09 spell was due to the response, however some people weren't having it!
  6. tcc
    A 5.1 for me please
  7. tcc
    Just wanted to say Matt I look forward to your summaries each morning! We have Gibby doing his on the Mod thread and you doing them here for the Strat. Brilliant! Keep it up
  8. tcc
    At this time, there are two things I'm looking out for, 1) Is to check how much rain is expected whilst we have the block to our east as there could well be some flooding especially in the West and 2) check to see if a PV develops properly and ends up over the Pole/Greenland! Hopefully the first one isn't too much of an issue and for the second I'm hoping it keeps fragmented. That way we'll always have a chance of getting something wintry.
  9. tcc
    Do we really want the snow and cold in Nov though? I know we can't be choosy, but surely there's then the chance that the actual winter might be a tad disappointing? I just remember seeing cold weather in Nov before and then nothing very exciting the following winter. It would just make me apprehensive about what comes after that's all.
  10. tcc
    -2.16 from the 06z - going down a little bit! Either way we now wait with baited breath what the OPI team come up with as a forecast. Should be interesting reading!
  11. tcc
    I would want most of the November to be mild and wet please, as that would indicate there is a trough to the south of Greenland which according to Cohens paper (SAI index) would be the first step to HLB later in Dec onwards. We have so far got some brilliant indicators for cold, an easterly QBO, a weak el-nino, a potentially record breaking SAI index and a very negative OPI index. Add to that the Sun "should" be weakening (solar flux) then there is much to be excited about if your after cold weather. We might have to patient though as we have had an amazingly mild year so there could be a lag effect as to when we actually see some colder weather.
  12. tcc
    Nice initial work there Steve, I'm surprised you've taken the plunge this year? Is that due to the early positive (for cold) signals we're seeing or were you going to do one anyway? Anyway good luck with it, look forward to reading your final forecast!
  13. tcc
    7.8 for me please
  14. tcc
    The last time I saw snow falling here was in early April 2013. So it's been a long time coming! I should imagine many people and kids are eager to see that first snowfall to relieve some of the angst caused by last winter but please, can we stay patient and be nice to each other! If you don't agree with what someone has written about a model or says they don't want to see it snow etc remember it's their opinion and their entitled to it. We've got conflicting output from the seasonal models and what we're seeing from the teleconnections. Whatever happens it's going to be fascinating as to what transpires and hopefully a steep learning curve for both forms of forecasting. let it snow let it snow let it snow..(hopefully!)
  15. tcc
    Right then, see you all back here on the 20th! No point reading too much into the figures before then!
  16. tcc
    Looks like a Cb is approaching to the SW, probably over Worthing/Littlehampton at the moment heading NE
  17. tcc
    Just think a few years ago we only had the May tripole signature in the Atlantic to indicate what the NAO might be. Then we had the warm, dry October theory, then the Snow Advance Index (SAI) and now we have the OPI to look at as well! Then onto November we start to get an idea of the Strat and now this other indicator for November which Steve has alluded to. It makes Autumn for me a lot less boring waiting for Winter!
  18. tcc
    Cheers CH, yes I've had a read of that and it is very interesting albeit too early to put too much confidence in it. Another indicator I've read about is to do with the Strat Temp over mid and Eastern Asia in November? Still early days on that particular correlation as well!
  19. tcc
    Wrong place as in bad for snowy prospects this winter?
  20. tcc
    A nice cb going up just to my south here. Can't see the Guildford cell at all as still quite misty!
  21. tcc
    I wouldn't take any of it into consideration at the moment, even as a pointer to the pattern! If it's consistent with a pattern in the 30 - 60 day period then it could be onto something. I'm sure last year around this time, there was plenty of blocking being shown as well if I remember. However I really hope that we see SOME snow this year, I thought 88-89 would never be repeated down here but last year it was! Got to hope with a -QBO that some blocking would deliver us coldies something nice
  22. tcc
    From here in Crawley and I can just about make out towers down that way towards the IOW. However I can also start seeing towers going up quickly to my SSW, so near Littlehamption/Worthing way? Probably be on the radar shortly.
  23. tcc
    Well that's a cheery thought then! let's hope it changes next month!
  24. tcc
    Cheers BA
  25. tcc
    Probably next month, normally when ECMWF starts churning out those graphs again!
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