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The storm over Horsham developed over me first, been raining a good 45 minutes, nothing particularly heavy but heard a few distant rumbles as it moved on. Nice to hear considering not in the risk zone! Wonder if it's due to orographic lift from the Downs maybe?

having another slow moving shower just now, nothing thundery unfortunately

Lots of big cumulus already this morning, a hell of a lot more than the last few days. Enough to produce a shower! Should be some big storms around further NW from here as the day goes on.

I'll let you know if your right Steve, as I live in Crawley!

I was 10 at the time and lived in Lancing, I remember in the morning that it thundered constantly with lots of rain but no flooding, also it wasn't particularly dark. It was only when I looked at the news in the evening that it talked about the darkness over London in the afternoon, which made me think that was the storm I witnessed first thing in the morning. it's amazing what you remember from your childhood!

Quick question for those who might know, as the cold air is still bottled up for a considerable amount of time, will that mean that once we have the final warming then all that very cold air will head to the mid latitudes? So we might get a blast of winter (albeit probably late March/April!)

Used to go every before we had kids! Loved doing a park and then watching the Clouds grow in the afternoon whilst queuing haha! Actually going again end of May/early June for the first time in about 6 years, kids are old enough now to appreciate it. Looking forward to seeing some Storms!

Exactly, could end up over Greenland and Boom, more rain. let's hope our luck changes and we get an actual split!

Ah Gotcha! Thanks (and to Quicksilver!) Well let's hope that there is something in this!

Eh? Have I misread the article? By all accounts it is giving a high Probabilistic that we will have a lower than normal CET along with a -NAO for Jan and Feb? Obviously it's a long way out, but I'm not reading it as showing a Mild Winter? Unless I'm being woooosshed?!

I think there isn't that much excitement because this winter has been abysmal for us down here with so much potential which just hasn't materialized. Even now the long term view from the Met office is for it turn colder in early Feb etc, but the Models don't appear to be picking this up, does that mean another false dawn? It could well be! As for tomorrow night the parameters needed for snowfall look to be marginal, so it's entirely possible that people will wake up Wed morning and not find any settling snow. Hopefully not because the way this winter has gone, this week could be our best chance of lying snow until next Winter. I'd take lying snow for 24 hours from this awful Winter right now! As you can tell, I'm a bit peeved about this Winter, I think it was the background signals (let alone the SSW) which peaked my interest and raised my expectations. However, to finish on a more positive note I'm hopeful that we will see some snow in Feb/March. El Nino type winters favour back end Winters for us and traditionally it seems we get our best chances later in Feb/March for snow!

Yep definitely KW! Just hope it holds or gets better for us down here. Who knows could potentially end up being best chance of decent snow this winter! (Although obviously I hope not!), over the weekend it will come into the HIRES range so we can either discount it or start the countdown.

My brain hurts! So many permutations and different opinions as to what's good for snow and what isn't! I'm tempted to just stop looking at the models until this time next week! At the moment I'm expecting some wet weather down here this coming week with the possibility of something wintry later in the week. And that's it. The following weekend I'll see what's going on for end of Jan

is it? I'm not convinced, I can't see much of a "wedge" there to deflect it SE

Are we on the cusp of a special wintry period? It's certainly starting to look that way when you look at ALL of the medium and long range models and yes, nothing is a given and even in my head I'm thinking "no it won't happen, something will scupper it, probably a short wave at the base of Greenland or something" but actually, it's starting to look a bit good isn't it.