Mark Bayley

Noting has changed my mind on the overnight runs. Many scenarios for next weekend, but likely some form of cold / or something closer to average. The low to the south is continuing to trend further south. Taken at face value, precipitation charts less good than last night, but as noted expect multiple 'upgrades' and 'downgrades' over the next several days. Widespread decent accumulations of snow never looked highly likely, but i am still fairly confident someone within the region will have seen a few CM's by weeks end from troughs / disturbances being picked up closer to the time. But also, a chance we might not, that's the reality unfortunately! Opportunities for something more widespread may come with an attempted pattern change, though perhaps not long lasting. A long way to go before then, and i'd be keeping an eye to the North East as we get closer to Feb..

So where i think we stand tonight based on the models: Much colder from from Sunday until at least Thursday. A relaxation looks likely closer to the weekend, but its too far out to speculate what that might look like. See the brilliant posts from Tamara and others in the MOD thread Any low from the south is going to be too far south for us, and i'd bet for much of England by the end of the weekend. Several chances of snow from the north and north west. The GEM, UKMO and ECM all bring organised precipitation in from the NW between Tuesday and Thursday. These little systems will change multiple times between now and next week, so i wouldn't get hung up on individual runs. The point being that I'd be very surprised if at least some of us didn't have couple of CMs towards weeks end!

So the ECM and GFS 18z potentially push precipitation associated from the low in the Azores as far as the south of our region (probably Sheffield the northern limit for the ECM, the GFS a little further north), the GEM and UKMO take it much further south (but bring a band of snow down from the NW). As is stands my money is the later (though a band of snow being less certain!) . Edit: 18z Ensembles track the low much further south, some not even reaching the south coast. Lets see what tomorrow brings. This won't be resolved for a few days yet..!

Indeed, and as flagged by @Harsh Climate in the MOD thread the UKMO has a similar feature to the GEM from the North West. The ICON had something on Tuesday and thereafter after looked dry, but given the deep level of cold / instability you'd expect surprises to crop up. In regards regional preferences, i think we want the UKMO / GEM solution. Yes we miss out on the battle ground snow, but as flagged above, plenty of opportunity for systems and disturbances.

Many options on the table. The GEM has the low flirting south of the M4, but then brings a system down from the north west delivering now quite widely. Would much prefer this option, and as noted by others, lows on the whole tend to trend south. Fascinating days ahead WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe GEM

18z is actually pretty snowy for our region. Still think the ECM is closer to the mark. Interesting to see the GFS toying with an easterly in the far reaches..

Not often i comment in the model thread in recent years, but having been here for nearly 17 years experience has suggested more often than not these lows track south (and the GFS tends to over blow them / track too far north), and it is usually the second or third attempt that makes in inroads north. That's potentially the best scenario for the UK as a whole, with battle ground snow to the south, snow showers to north. Sadly someone will always miss out, but this scenario offers the greatest widespread snow potential. Will be intriguing to see how this evolves over the coming days!

Yep, probably the second low delivering better for us. Midlands gets a pasting. Some of the other runs less good, e.g. GFS and the GEM. I still reckon, if this is the route we go down, that lows will correct south. If so, hopefully that brings in snow showers.

@Harsh Climate yep. About 2 to 5cm across much of the region if it falls as snow. Looks like it could be marginal away from high ground for a short time. Would be good see the dew points. As you say the ECM is not the only model to toy with this. The previous GFS runs and GEM have had this too. One to watch! https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php?ech=6&mode=25&carte=6

Yes, GEM would have a snow to rain event, GFS likely just misses most of us (though snow might make it to Sheffield). Far to out to be concerned on detail, plus we might not get a low at all. If I was betting i'd think any low would correct south, thus leaving us out the battle ground (central Midlands being the sweet spot). thus leaving us to hope for disturbances / snow showers from the East. Lets see how it evolves.

18z also pretty good., Yes, i know we should take no notice of these sorts of charts, especially so far out. Those of us around long enough know the drill. Get the cold in, and whilst it might look dry, chances are disturbances etc... may crop up. 18z is perfect for that (and the GEM). I also sense the models are toying with height rises towards the NE.. Tamara and others have highlighted this possibility!

Hi - really helpful post. I wondered if you or a MOD might copy this into the L&D section just so we can revisit please. Only had time to scan but don't want this to get lost into the thread. When i get a bit time would like to get my head around some of these drivers and this is a useful reference post! thanks

@Craigers - this is what we want..! Should be some juicy ECMWF charts by the weekend! Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS) WWW.METEOCIEL.FR meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

Yep - looking interesting as we move through Jan. Maybe even some snow showers next week if the initial high sits far enough north (e.g. latest GEM or GFS 6z) - though nothing special at this stage. The retrogression towards Greenland, should it happen, might be deliver something decent for our region. Either way, it will be drier, which is much needed!

Happy new year all - here's to something colder as we move through January. If I've learned anything of nearly 20 years of model watching it is to expect surprises! I'm a little dusty on SSWs, MJO etc.. these days but from what i do remember and have been following from others the 'background' drivers remain positive. Hopefully we get a bite of the cherry at some point, though a mid-latitude high seems favoured for now. Having just recorded 150mm of rain preceded by two months of 100mm plus I welcome some drier weather Thanks to @Tamara @Catacol @Met4Cast @lorenzo @bluearmy and others for the incredibly informative posts over the past year. I really need to get back into some of the technical detail...!

Yep, awful past few months (bar the snow!) Year in summary 4 x month over 100mm and a yearly total of 956.4mm December - 150.2mm July -150.2mm October - 144.6mm November - 101.2m Highest temp - 29.2c (June) - Weather station didn't record on the warmest September day (my fault for ignoring battery warning!), but presuming 30c not reached going by the nearest Meto station. Lowest temp - 5.2c (December, though January got to -5.1). Snow - March - 15cm and December 5cm (don't recall any snow in Jan or Feb - if there was it was a dusting!) Happy new year all - fingers crossed for some wintry weather in January or February followed by a warm spring and summer..

148mm rain this month now -if I manage another 2mm later today it will be the wettest month of the year. January looks to be turning colder, and thus drier. Having been on here for nearly 20 years I have learnt not to get hung up on the model dramas! A UK high followed by retrogression is a perfectly feasible outcome. I'd expect more runs like the GFS 6z outreaches as the strat warming begins to impact lower down. Always good to get snow in the darker months, though as March this year showed snow can stick around a few days even late on. A long way to go before then though!

Yeah same here. Pretty impressive and made the lights flicker. 35mm maximum rain rate. Wasn't expecting that! Still some distant flashes

A surprise thunderstorm here. Several flashes of lightning and thunder. Rain pretty torrential too

5.8c please

Pretty wet then. Another miserable day, though okay between the showers. Fed up with this wind too!

24mm so far. High res suggested about 30mm which we'll probably reach with any later showers. Then, another 20mm before months end according to the GFS, so probably reaching 150mm in total. Had 144mm in October, 101mm in November. The wettest month was July at 150mm!

If anything lets hope January is a little drier.. Third month in a row with 100mm plus of rain (currently 98mm but that will go up tomorrow..). Ground is completely sodden

Thanks, given easterly seems a potential for later in the month it could make for an interesting Christmas period!

Yeah, from recollection of when I lived near Worksop some of the best snow events came from the east or north east, though being a bit further south than here frontal events also did okay. Presume the North York moors can be a bit of a hinderence in North Easteriles for our neck of the woods?