Mark Bayley
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Posts posted by Mark Bayley
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Scott Ingham it is a fair point, and 1c will make all the difference. To illustrate your point, the current temperature is about 0.7c colder thanthe high res suggests (dew point the same though). I'll reserve judgment until the early afternoon!
In regards spring, we all know blocking in the right place will appear on March the 1st, with the azores heights nowhere to be seen
Though I'm sure few us will turn down a repeat of last March's snow event (for those that got snow..)
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Scott Ingham let's see. Dew points dont look great, 1c plus away from the pennine areas. Intensity might help, but that is more of an advantage those to the south of Leeds have. A now cast situation, I'll update tomorrow afternoon!
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Agree with everyone above. I'm now not confident of any settling snow (other than temporary slushy deposits) outside of the orange warning area. I think for many of us a day of heavy sleet with rain from late evening. A shame, and I agree with the sentiment of roll on spring!
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High res models seem to suggest dewpoints on the wrong side of marginal here, with a day of wet snow / sleet before turning to rain. Similar to what happened in December, though snow did eventually stick towards the end of the day (though that won't happen this time). I'm less confident than yesterday that myself and others below 150m will see much in the way if settling snow - much will depend on intensity. Orange warning area looks to be the place to be.
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Yep, most still have the band reaching Leeds / southern parts of North Yorkshire, but lighter. Helps that it arrives later in the afternoon.
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Yes, lets see what the 12zs say. Sweet spot looks to be the western side of Sheffield.
I know we should ignore Meto automated forecasts, though its interesting they had sleet from 9pm on Thursday for NE Leeds (Roundhay) yesterday evening, that's now pushed to 6am Friday.
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Shame given what looked like quite a promising winter has delivered so little. Though watch the blocking appear in abundance as we head towards March!
I'll plump for 3cm by Thursday evening for my part of Leeds - lets see how that turns out
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Good post @Harsh Climate. GFS 6z is another small improvement in regards how much milder air encroaches by Friday (keeps snow with decent elevation into Friday afternoon). I think the GFS accumulation chart is probably a fair reflection of what we might expect. A couple of CMs to low lying areas into Thursday evening, maybe 5cm around 150 to 200m, and 10cm plus on even higher ground (as per meto warning area).
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@Empire Of Snow indeed - better than nothing. I'm not expecting much for my area at only 135m, but will happily take a cm or two
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18z is an upgrade for our area with snow more widespread - a couple cms quite widely by Thursday evening. Closer to 10cm on higher ground in the west. Melts Friday though. Let's see what the 0z says.
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I think they don't want to get caught out. TBH i think Rotherham definitely looks marginal. For me in Roundhay, around 140m ASL, it looks dicey. I'd think places like Horsforth could do okay. Detail will change this far out, but i'd punt at leading edge snow for most, with settling snow above 200m (though perhaps temporary accumulations lower down), with decent accumulations as per the met office warning
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GFS 6z having none of it though - snow turning quickly to rain. ECM and UKMO look better - in fact the later probably too far south for anything decent in my neck of the woods. I wouldn't bet on either solution yet! Either way, looks marginal away from higher ground, as per the weather warning. I'd probably be most confident if i lived on the western side of Sheffield / Chesterfield / West Yorkshire above 200m
UK weather warnings - Met Office
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK -
5.7c please
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Wind sounds worse than the other day here
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Wasn't expecting to see showers reach this far. Only enough for a sugar dusting!
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5 minutes ago, cheese said:
Bone dry here
You probably don't want it. Temperature has gone up and its turned sleety
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Same here, moderate intensity. Might give a decent dusting according to the radar.
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As predicted, it fizzled. Precipitation seems a little further south than modelled, but that doesn't mean it will all make it across. Has been constant very light snow for the past couple of hours, nothing sticking.
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Yeah, radar suggests i'm just about far north to get hit by the band about to hit Bradford. That is if it doesn't fizzle out
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Snow flakes drifting in the air but no intensity. Think I'll be too far south and east. Looking okay for higher up western parts of West and North Yorkshire . High res models suggest dew points on the wrong side of marginal this afternoon but anyone on high ground, say 200m, might do okay.
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It is hard to not be somewhat despondent. The models now seem to agree on a breakdown from next weekend (sadly not a snowy one), though no guarantee it will be massively above average (e.g. GFS 6z). Frustratingly whether mild or average, it looks turn wetter again, which I am sure many areas could do without!
Before then there remains chances of snow early next week, with the UKMO looking decent for western areas of the region (a few CMS of snow, but potentially a dusting elsewhere). Lets see how it evolves - other models keep the precipitation mostly to the west or don't bring it at all!
Whilst the models might look dreadful as we heads towards February, remember how quickly that can change. Lets hope that the next bout of blocking, should there be one (as per background drivers suggesting), brings winds from a more northern easterly / easterly direction, and the trough sinks fully into Europe. That was always the challenge with this spell.
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4 hours ago, Harsh Climate said:
UKMO has much more extensive precipitation, ECM probably underplaying the extent of it.
On face value if the models were to be right now, this looks very much like a West Leeds event with places like Skipton, Otley, Halifax, perhaps Bradford having quite a nice surprise with a sharp cut off of precipitation once ya reach Headingly/ Leeds City centre..
Ovcoarse too early to name exact area to receive the snow tuesday, but a bit of luck and we could have a large part of West, South and North Yorkshire receiving the snow than just more western areas.
Agreed, the GFS 18z makes a bit more of it for eastern areas. Probably only a dusting, but increasing to a CM or two the further north and west you are. Hopefully the models make more of it over the weekend, though in reality it will be down to lamppost watching on the day (subject to timing!)
If anyone gets bored of the models I've found the Metoffice warning archive quite interesting (how sad
) . Since 2013 we've had 462 yellow warnings for snow and 30 amber. January 2013 seemingly a good month for snow. Most of our Reds have been for rain... Lets see if Feb can deliver..
https://library.metoffice.gov.uk/Portal/Default/en-GB/Search/SimpleSearch
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4 hours ago, Harsh Climate said:
Spot on that mate
We want inches of snow though not mere cm's....
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Check out marks post
HA, Yes, sadly i think we'll be waiting until closer to February for that.
GFS 12z bring a band of snow down on Wednesday night, but it fizzles out across our region. Probably a CM or two for North Yorkshire. The GEM does the same but has an additional band of snow on Friday (so potential for a wider geography to see a few CM's). Both had a leading edge snowy breakdown (if that actually happens..).
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Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion
Posted
Sleet here too. Temp of 1.3c and dew point 1c. Hopefully temperatures drop and intensity increases, but not looking promising for any settling snow