Mark Bayley
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Everything posted by Mark Bayley
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Scott Ingham it is a fair point, and 1c will make all the difference. To illustrate your point, the current temperature is about 0.7c colder thanthe high res suggests (dew point the same though). I'll reserve judgment until the early afternoon! In regards spring, we all know blocking in the right place will appear on March the 1st, with the azores heights nowhere to be seen Though I'm sure few us will turn down a repeat of last March's snow event (for those that got snow..)
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High res models seem to suggest dewpoints on the wrong side of marginal here, with a day of wet snow / sleet before turning to rain. Similar to what happened in December, though snow did eventually stick towards the end of the day (though that won't happen this time). I'm less confident than yesterday that myself and others below 150m will see much in the way if settling snow - much will depend on intensity. Orange warning area looks to be the place to be.
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Good post @Harsh Climate. GFS 6z is another small improvement in regards how much milder air encroaches by Friday (keeps snow with decent elevation into Friday afternoon). I think the GFS accumulation chart is probably a fair reflection of what we might expect. A couple of CMs to low lying areas into Thursday evening, maybe 5cm around 150 to 200m, and 10cm plus on even higher ground (as per meto warning area).
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I think they don't want to get caught out. TBH i think Rotherham definitely looks marginal. For me in Roundhay, around 140m ASL, it looks dicey. I'd think places like Horsforth could do okay. Detail will change this far out, but i'd punt at leading edge snow for most, with settling snow above 200m (though perhaps temporary accumulations lower down), with decent accumulations as per the met office warning
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GFS 6z having none of it though - snow turning quickly to rain. ECM and UKMO look better - in fact the later probably too far south for anything decent in my neck of the woods. I wouldn't bet on either solution yet! Either way, looks marginal away from higher ground, as per the weather warning. I'd probably be most confident if i lived on the western side of Sheffield / Chesterfield / West Yorkshire above 200m UK weather warnings - Met Office WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK
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February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
Mark Bayley replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
5.7c please -
It is hard to not be somewhat despondent. The models now seem to agree on a breakdown from next weekend (sadly not a snowy one), though no guarantee it will be massively above average (e.g. GFS 6z). Frustratingly whether mild or average, it looks turn wetter again, which I am sure many areas could do without! Before then there remains chances of snow early next week, with the UKMO looking decent for western areas of the region (a few CMS of snow, but potentially a dusting elsewhere). Lets see how it evolves - other models keep the precipitation mostly to the west or don't bring it at all! Whilst the models might look dreadful as we heads towards February, remember how quickly that can change. Lets hope that the next bout of blocking, should there be one (as per background drivers suggesting), brings winds from a more northern easterly / easterly direction, and the trough sinks fully into Europe. That was always the challenge with this spell.
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Agreed, the GFS 18z makes a bit more of it for eastern areas. Probably only a dusting, but increasing to a CM or two the further north and west you are. Hopefully the models make more of it over the weekend, though in reality it will be down to lamppost watching on the day (subject to timing!) If anyone gets bored of the models I've found the Metoffice warning archive quite interesting (how sad ) . Since 2013 we've had 462 yellow warnings for snow and 30 amber. January 2013 seemingly a good month for snow. Most of our Reds have been for rain... Lets see if Feb can deliver.. https://library.metoffice.gov.uk/Portal/Default/en-GB/Search/SimpleSearch
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HA, Yes, sadly i think we'll be waiting until closer to February for that. GFS 12z bring a band of snow down on Wednesday night, but it fizzles out across our region. Probably a CM or two for North Yorkshire. The GEM does the same but has an additional band of snow on Friday (so potential for a wider geography to see a few CM's). Both had a leading edge snowy breakdown (if that actually happens..).