Mark Bayley
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Good post @Harsh Climate. GFS 6z is another small improvement in regards how much milder air encroaches by Friday (keeps snow with decent elevation into Friday afternoon). I think the GFS accumulation chart is probably a fair reflection of what we might expect. A couple of CMs to low lying areas into Thursday evening, maybe 5cm around 150 to 200m, and 10cm plus on even higher ground (as per meto warning area).
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I think they don't want to get caught out. TBH i think Rotherham definitely looks marginal. For me in Roundhay, around 140m ASL, it looks dicey. I'd think places like Horsforth could do okay. Detail will change this far out, but i'd punt at leading edge snow for most, with settling snow above 200m (though perhaps temporary accumulations lower down), with decent accumulations as per the met office warning
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GFS 6z having none of it though - snow turning quickly to rain. ECM and UKMO look better - in fact the later probably too far south for anything decent in my neck of the woods. I wouldn't bet on either solution yet! Either way, looks marginal away from higher ground, as per the weather warning. I'd probably be most confident if i lived on the western side of Sheffield / Chesterfield / West Yorkshire above 200m UK weather warnings - Met Office WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK
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February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
Mark Bayley replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
5.7c please -
It is hard to not be somewhat despondent. The models now seem to agree on a breakdown from next weekend (sadly not a snowy one), though no guarantee it will be massively above average (e.g. GFS 6z). Frustratingly whether mild or average, it looks turn wetter again, which I am sure many areas could do without! Before then there remains chances of snow early next week, with the UKMO looking decent for western areas of the region (a few CMS of snow, but potentially a dusting elsewhere). Lets see how it evolves - other models keep the precipitation mostly to the west or don't bring it at all! Whilst the models might look dreadful as we heads towards February, remember how quickly that can change. Lets hope that the next bout of blocking, should there be one (as per background drivers suggesting), brings winds from a more northern easterly / easterly direction, and the trough sinks fully into Europe. That was always the challenge with this spell.
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Agreed, the GFS 18z makes a bit more of it for eastern areas. Probably only a dusting, but increasing to a CM or two the further north and west you are. Hopefully the models make more of it over the weekend, though in reality it will be down to lamppost watching on the day (subject to timing!) If anyone gets bored of the models I've found the Metoffice warning archive quite interesting (how sad ) . Since 2013 we've had 462 yellow warnings for snow and 30 amber. January 2013 seemingly a good month for snow. Most of our Reds have been for rain... Lets see if Feb can deliver.. https://library.metoffice.gov.uk/Portal/Default/en-GB/Search/SimpleSearch
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HA, Yes, sadly i think we'll be waiting until closer to February for that. GFS 12z bring a band of snow down on Wednesday night, but it fizzles out across our region. Probably a CM or two for North Yorkshire. The GEM does the same but has an additional band of snow on Friday (so potential for a wider geography to see a few CM's). Both had a leading edge snowy breakdown (if that actually happens..).
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Noting has changed my mind on the overnight runs. Many scenarios for next weekend, but likely some form of cold / or something closer to average. The low to the south is continuing to trend further south. Taken at face value, precipitation charts less good than last night, but as noted expect multiple 'upgrades' and 'downgrades' over the next several days. Widespread decent accumulations of snow never looked highly likely, but i am still fairly confident someone within the region will have seen a few CM's by weeks end from troughs / disturbances being picked up closer to the time. But also, a chance we might not, that's the reality unfortunately! Opportunities for something more widespread may come with an attempted pattern change, though perhaps not long lasting. A long way to go before then, and i'd be keeping an eye to the North East as we get closer to Feb..
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So where i think we stand tonight based on the models: Much colder from from Sunday until at least Thursday. A relaxation looks likely closer to the weekend, but its too far out to speculate what that might look like. See the brilliant posts from Tamara and others in the MOD thread Any low from the south is going to be too far south for us, and i'd bet for much of England by the end of the weekend. Several chances of snow from the north and north west. The GEM, UKMO and ECM all bring organised precipitation in from the NW between Tuesday and Thursday. These little systems will change multiple times between now and next week, so i wouldn't get hung up on individual runs. The point being that I'd be very surprised if at least some of us didn't have couple of CMs towards weeks end!
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So the ECM and GFS 18z potentially push precipitation associated from the low in the Azores as far as the south of our region (probably Sheffield the northern limit for the ECM, the GFS a little further north), the GEM and UKMO take it much further south (but bring a band of snow down from the NW). As is stands my money is the later (though a band of snow being less certain!) . Edit: 18z Ensembles track the low much further south, some not even reaching the south coast. Lets see what tomorrow brings. This won't be resolved for a few days yet..!
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Indeed, and as flagged by @Harsh Climate in the MOD thread the UKMO has a similar feature to the GEM from the North West. The ICON had something on Tuesday and thereafter after looked dry, but given the deep level of cold / instability you'd expect surprises to crop up. In regards regional preferences, i think we want the UKMO / GEM solution. Yes we miss out on the battle ground snow, but as flagged above, plenty of opportunity for systems and disturbances.
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Many options on the table. The GEM has the low flirting south of the M4, but then brings a system down from the north west delivering now quite widely. Would much prefer this option, and as noted by others, lows on the whole tend to trend south. Fascinating days ahead WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe GEM