Mark Bayley
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March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
Mark Bayley replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
7.9c please -
A good 3cm now where snow originally stuck with roads and pavements white over. Will head out around 4pm given it will be gone by morning! Should remain as snow into the early evening. Will be interesting to see whether the precipitation moving WNW out of Liverpool maintains intensity, reaches north Bradford / Leeds and falls as snow.. High res suggests marginal from 18:00, but given it is already slightly overestimating dewpoints and temperature we might get an extra few hours..
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Temperature now down to 0.3c and a dew point of -1c, slightly lower than the high res suggested for this time (around 2pm to 6pm). Snowing light to moderately though still struggling on pavements. Radar and models suggest an increase in intensity around mid afternoon which should help snow stick everywhere, especially if the temperature can drop a little more. All being well, it might remain as snow into the evening before turning back to rain again around late evening.
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DevinW Can confirm its turning more to snow in Roundhay which is a similar elevation - and starting to stick on grass, bins and cars. Temperature 1.4c and dew point of 0c. If the temperature can drop a little more, and we maintain some intensity (which is what the models suggest for the afternoon) then I may have a slushy covering my the end of the afternoon (yay..!).
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Scott Ingham it is a fair point, and 1c will make all the difference. To illustrate your point, the current temperature is about 0.7c colder thanthe high res suggests (dew point the same though). I'll reserve judgment until the early afternoon! In regards spring, we all know blocking in the right place will appear on March the 1st, with the azores heights nowhere to be seen Though I'm sure few us will turn down a repeat of last March's snow event (for those that got snow..)
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High res models seem to suggest dewpoints on the wrong side of marginal here, with a day of wet snow / sleet before turning to rain. Similar to what happened in December, though snow did eventually stick towards the end of the day (though that won't happen this time). I'm less confident than yesterday that myself and others below 150m will see much in the way if settling snow - much will depend on intensity. Orange warning area looks to be the place to be.