jcw

Well said. Evidence will build, one way or the other, as this science continues to be studied. It's too easy, and too early, to dismiss it out of hand. J.

The Bartlett definition. I saved this from the UK.sci.weather newsgroup some years back. Written by another poster at that time. "However, in recent years (this written in autumn, 2005), these situations have been notable by their absence. What 'high' blocks there have been stay teasingly just too far east and more often than not, a broad band of high pressure extends from the Azores area, east-north-eastwards towards the Biscay / English Channel region - perhaps now & then displaced towards the Alps, as storm upon storms weeps in from the North Atlantic, hurried along by an often powerful upper jet. Rain, gales and above average temperatures prevail, with any 'wintry' weather confined to brief incursions of Polar Maritime west or WNW'lies, or perhaps a temporary Arctic Maritime blast from the north - which is shunted away as the next surge of mild air hurries in from the west. The apparently semi-permanent belt of high-pressure in the 'wrong' place has been christened ... "The Bartlett High", in honour of Paul Bartlett, a luminary of this ng, who used to put his experience of forecasting to the test by publishing a reasoned winter forecast for all to see. As Les Crossan has noted (also a stalwart of this ng), this has come to be regarded as a 'slug' - nothing moves it, not even extracting a pair of dividers and skeweringthe said beast as it sits dominating any particular synoptic chart! "

Yup, thanks for that memory - I posted on uk.sci.weather around that time too - learning much from the likes of PAul B, Will Hand, Mike Tullet and others. Some great characters (trolls or otherwise!). IIRC, the High was also referred to as "the slug". Joe

Further to previous post, here's a summary of the 2009/2010 winter from the same source. Any typos are mine as I tried to transcribe from original document! "COLDEST WINTER FOR BETWEEN 13 AND 18 YEARS IN PLACES Mean air temperatures for the season were around two degrees lower than average for the 1961-90 period and it was the coldest winter since 1962/3 everywhere. The season began with relatively mild weather, but each of the winter months was colder than normal. The season's lowest temperatures were measured in the periods December 24th to 25th and January 7th to 9th, when air temperatures fell below -10°C in places and several stations recorded their lowest winter values for more than 20 years. There was a total of between 70 and 80 ground frosts during the season at inland stations, while Valentia Observatory's total of 62 ground frosts was almost three times its average winter figure of 22. Rainfall totals (including snowfall) for the season were below normal almost everywhere, with only around half of the seasonal totals recorded in some places. At most stations it was not as dry as the winter of 2005/ 6, but at Shannon Airport it was the driest since 1963/4.111e season's heaviest falls were during December and mid-January particularly on December 29/30 and on January 12 the south. There were between 20 and 30 days with snow ill many places, mainly in the form of showers, but snowfall accumulations were generally slight except high ground. The total number of raindays during the 3- month period was between 44 and 62 generally, around 1 O% lower than normal for the season. Sunshine totals for the season were above normal everywhere and they were exceptionally high in the west and south, It was the sunniest winter 011 record at stations in these areas, including Valentia Observatory, where over a century of sunshine records exist. Another notable feature of the winter's weather was the infrequency of strong winds. Mean wind speeds for the season of between 5 and 11 knots (9and 20km/ h) were below normal everywhere and were the lowest on record for winter at many stations. The highest gust of the season, 62 knots (115km/ h) was measured at Valentia Observatory on January 12."

This from Met Eireann records... 2009 November (Source: Met Eireann monthly weather bulletin - https://www.met.ie/climate/past-weather-statements) Atlantic depressions passing close to Ireland brought wet and windy conditions throughout almost all of November, continuing a pattern of very unsettled weather over Ireland that began in mid-October. Persistent and often heavy rain over this period led to unprecedented levels of flooding in parts of the west and south, as ground conditions became saturated. Rainfall totals for November were the highest on record at most stations, including the long-term stations at Malin Head and Valentia Observatory, where records extend back over 100 years. Valentia’s total of 345mm was its highest of any month since observations began in the area in 1866, while its previous highest annual total of 1923mm in 2002 was also exceeded during the last week of this month, reflecting the persistence of wet weather throughout the year. More than twice the average November amounts were measured at almost all stations and over three times the normal amount fell in some places. Rain or showers were recorded on almost every day, with between 22 and 27 wet days observed (days with 1mm or more rainfall), compared with the normal range for November of between 13 and 20 wet days. Heaviest daily falls at most stations were recorded on the 1st, in the period 16th to 19th, and on the 29th in the east; two-day falls of over 100mm were recorded in parts of the west and southwest on the 18th/19th (see below). Much of November was mild with little or no frost, but temperatures fell considerably towards the end of the month. Overall, mean air temperatures were close to a degree higher than normal generally. Air and ground frost became widespread at the end of the month, but the total of between seven and 12 ground frosts at inland stations was below normal for November. Despite the very wet weather, sunshine totals were above normal generally, especially in the south and northwest. 1st to 26th: A series of fast-moving deep Atlantic depressions brought active frontal systems across Ireland, bringing very wet and windy conditions. Spells of rain or showers gave falls of 10mm or more on many days across Connacht and Munster, while all areas received heavy falls on the 1st, 9th, in the period 16th to 19th and on the 21st. River levels reached record heights in many parts of the midlands, west and south, leading to significant flooding. The strong south to southwesterly winds for most of the period brought mild conditions, although slacker winds and clear skies allowed frost to form in midland and eastern areas between the 8th and 11th. A depression of central pressure 954hPa off the west coast on the 21st/22nd generated storm conditions, with very high seas. 27th to 30th: Low pressure became centred to the east of Ireland, bringing a cold northerly airstream across the country. Showers in western areas died out, but a spell of heavy rain in eastern areas brought flooding here on the 29th. Both maximum and minimum temperatures were below normal, with frost becoming widespread.

This work for you? *Edit: display as link* ECMWF | Charts CHARTS.ECMWF.INT https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_eps_family_hovmoller?area=North Hemisphere&base_time=202306220000&parameter=geopotential 500 hPa

While not challenging Marc's views there is a very extensive analysis from Simon Lee which may inform further... Simon’s Stratosphere Watch #2 | Simon Lee SIMONLEEWX.COM When I wrote the first SSW blog on the evening of Tuesday 22 February, I did not expect to be writing the next one so soon after with such increased uncertainty. But there are many aspects to the way...

I did see @Petagna (Marco Petagna, Uk Met office) comment on this yesterday: "The latest round of warming in stratosphere above N Pole appears to be coming to end at 10hpa. Notable extension of warmth observed down to the 30hpa #pressure level this time. The E'ly #SPV stratospheric polar vortex looks set to revert W today..strong vortex recovery in sight" Joe

Don't think so, Nick. The storm names came into effect on Sept 1, 2020 - ignoring storms named by Portugal, France or Spain, or ex-Hurricanes. The 2020/2021 names storms are here: Storm Names 2020/21 - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service WWW.MET.IE Met Éireann, the Irish National Meteorological Service, is the leading provider of weather information and related services for Ireland.

Lol! Says who?

Here's something you might read too. The ‘Mini Ice Age’ Hoopla Is A Giant Failure Of Science Communication WWW.IFLSCIENCE.COM This month there’s been a hoopla about a mini ice age, and unfortunately it tells us more about failures of science communication than the climate. Zarkhova, the primary source for the Grand Solar Minimum touted by the media, never actually suggested this in the first place. In fact it was only after the media hopped on her research and hyped the story suggesting connection to climate change and the Maunder minimum that Zarkhova even thought to consider a link there. Scientific peer review has offered no such outcome that I've seen but I'd welcome direction to any if it's there. I'd prefer to choose the scientific community over elements of the media, or other websites/individuals that have little or no recognisable qualification that gives them credibility. They simply relay these stories - it makes fun reading and generates hits. I'm open to research that provides credible backup to a position - I've not found any yet to support the view you've presented.

Unfortunately talking about an SSW doesn't make it happen. Useful to keep an eye on charts like this to see if there's any hint of a warming ahead... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

Popularity is not a measure of sensibility or credibility, my friend. Look to the President of the US with millions of followers. I'm just saying, balance your research before making what are viewed as "wild" claims in the face of current research & science (and supported by 000's more than the subscribers to Adapt2030). It's not a popularity contest - it's science, facts, research and by many qualified people. Stay safe

You mean this Valentina Zharkova? Some more recent reading material which suggests otherwise? Hope David DuByne (@adapt2030) is prepared to continue his research and consider this paper too....... RETRACTED ARTICLE: Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale | Scientific Reports WWW.NATURE.COM Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in...

...and this is supported by what science or reputable sources?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/panels.php?model=ecm&var=1&map=1&lid=OP

I didn't think the a Hurricane can cause a buckle to the Jetstream (from papers I had read will try and find them again). Isn't it a case of the buckled Jetstream being the driver to the track of the Hurricane? Either way, @mb018538, as you say, we're on the wrong side of the Jet next week and it's going to be a shock to the system, relative to what we've been experiencing.. Joe

As charts stand, based on GFS dew points and my own read of them, I'd be very surprised to see snow at low level along East coast and across NI. Definitely making for interesting forecasts and model watching... Still much to learn from this situation and I'll be watching how it pans out for sure.

Agreed. No snow; more rain. Dew points look no lower than 4c at best. Any "battle" is the other side of the Irish sea.

Yah, it's good...but not quite Carlsberg I'd prefer to see a spike here

Small observation and for my own sake and understanding (or misunderstanding as case may be) isn't that chart showing the isoline that's in Scandi traces BACK to England? That's a weak anticyclonic feature going clockwise from a view of the wider chart? JC

Pedant time...Ireland IS part of the British Isles. Maybe you meant Great Britain? I like the idea of an early to mid-March over western British Isles, at least. While I love the thought of a snowy day, once we are into March, I'm more inclined to favour the advent of milder Spring temperatures than belated cold and snow. J.

Looks to me, based on those charts, as if much hinges on T+150 and that that shortwave development (or not). As others say, thereafter the changes are notable from what we've seen on the 06z.

Mike Tullet kept some great records before he passed away. Try http://myweb.tiscali.co.uk/mtullett/1962-63/ Joe

Well if that's you what you infer from that forecast while I infer that average weather is very likely, why not leave it like that, i.e. for people to infer for themselves what they want from the forecast? You're happy; I'm happy...ish...! It's weather.....almost unpredictable!! joe