frostypaw

Last night's ensembles are rather pleasing - very strong support for a good build in pressure after the weekend and into the festival period. Fingers very much crossed that remains. The Azores making it's influence known in the south west at least has been a recurring theme with even the ECMWF supporting it Still far enough to change but lovely to see, it's just what we want

I have to admit some weather-part of me is hugely glad I was there for the '05 storm, though sad I slept through it's worst. That was a truly awesome weather event and with how the site is laid out you could clearly see the storm rolling around the basin, the rainfall was a sight to behold and the subsequent river past our tent real testament to the power of the weather. But I'd not repeat it cheers seems extremely unlikely - a 1-100 years storm for anywhere, even lower probability it happens then and there. '07 was like November in July. It need not be spoken of really, none of that thanks. Only started going in '03 though so missed the previous two mudbaths of '97 and '98 but they are infamous. For now I'm staying optimistic - it's looking alright can never really tell this far out but the ensembles support something friendly at least with the whole festival period now in the un-reliable timeframe

You have to realise that news programs love a muddy Glastonbury - it makes much more pleasing news than that everyone's having a whale of a time, and it takes very little rain for 180,000 pairs of feet to make a small muddy area appear somewhere... and the cameras come flooding. The last two years were blissful sunny affairs, with little rain which had very little effect. They had to get trucks out spraying the paths with water to keep the dust down! As to the other recent festivals 02 and 03 also very nice, 04 showery, 05 the flood, but otherwise glorious and if you weren't one of the few unfortunate it wasn't bad at all, 07 dreadful. Not the best record of late, but it's a loooong way from the news reports.

Gotta be said in the south east here (north western kent) and my Garden at home is doing ok but has already needed serious watering at points this summer, and the gardens at work have been no better off. There has been a real check in growth in the plants I've not been giving extra water. The lawn edges are all scalded and the irrigation is in full swing on the course itself. I suppose it depends on your definition of drought. As gardeners/lawn treatment technicians or whatever we rely on near-surface water to keep things ticking over. For us drought signs kick in far sooner than the technical definition is reached - it does still seem a very dry year in comparison to last year... but to be honest just properly average would do very nicely. My feelings are that we're in for a changeable summer of comparatively slow moving systems, but I don't think we'll see seriously extended heat - the jet stream's behaviour still doesn't seem conducive.

that's phenomenal. kinda puts it in perspective. wonder how that arrived? can't have been fun any which way

You're far too right sadly, and it's a game we all play to a degree. We like playing up the weather, it's a british past-time waaaaaaay beyond these boards. The thing is for the majority of the population there's little fixed that they do outdoors. 3 sunny weekends and it's a great weather month for them. I remember 2006 falling somewhat into that category - it was quite showery but they were "well timed" as such and it was on the whole a great summer. 2007 had a whole load of dry patches, but they rarely co-incided with weekends. Wimbledon however the world and all of the UK watches - suddenly we're painfully aware of the UK weather's inability to stay steady. Hence public perception of "It always rains at Wimbledon" is a rather selective-memory generated version of "it always rains at some point during a fortnight" Might seem obvious to those who pay attention to the weather all the time but most don't and come the end of june people's attention and interest is on it 24/14 rather than just for the journeys to and from work and the weekend - Ta Da it's a "Monsoon" Makes for FAR better headlines and chat than "now that i care about the weather there's probably going to be rain in these weeks and i don't like it" At festivals you always hear people whinge about how it's always either wet and horrid or too sunny and hot - only the two extremes. I think most people just don't realise that a full day's weather is 16 odd hours of possible sun, and that rain isn't all in 2 minute showers. It just normally is hours and hours of one or the other, occasionally showers and it's ALWAYS extreme. It's just the lack of context and exposure, be it how much weather there is in one day or how much rain there is a week/fortnight. Long ramble sorry, been thinking about the weather a lot. Today I have seen SPECTACULAR ground mist (there is no sight so beautiful as fields of different grasses flowering in heavy mist in the morning sun - layers on layers of arching stems and different colours) then visible dots of water/mist moving upwards everywhere for a good half hour, followed by solid winter like cloud and a cold snap, a band of light rain and then enough constant blazing sun and heat to have me wanting to be topless and i've caught the sun nicely. All by 3pm and there was still six and a half hours more keeeeeeerrrrrrrrazy weather to come. Kinda dull out now tho.

cool congratulations. still bad mr.data with your numerological witchcraft. it can't be so i tell thee!

for you it is. for others they'd love to see loads of weather-action with lows and storms riding across us - or they might just feel that pessimistic and want to vent The trends will change by tomorrow - I've only seen STABLE type patterns of high pressure a couple of times in the LRFs so it's best to watch and see what happens and not to get too attached to any particular report-of-the-moment at least until right near the date.

Here lies the danger of averages. Due to the extensive cloud cover last summer while we didn't get much warming sun let alone warm air, we also didn't get the cooling effects of a clear night's sky. The diurnal range was small - i.e. difference between max day and min night temperature - which will give you exactly the same average temperature as a blazing hot day and a cold night. June while very pleasant during the day can be a real shock to the system after nightfall. By August (given a decent summer) the ground stays warm to the touch for hours and hours but a poor August and it can just be autumn biting already and nothing but wind and rain from the middle of the month - enough to drag a good average from June and July down. Averages are onions - they mean very very very little without extra figures that usually aren't quoted. Incidentally I'm ignoring the GFS at the moment until after the bank holiday at least. Whatever complex of lows is coming over us or going on elsewhere is sending the predictions up the spout - I think today's the first time I've seen any sort of sensible spread in the ensembles rather than it all going haywire after 3 days but I'm not ready to trust it yet. general trend still is for a series of ripples of unsettled i.e. atlantic dominated - nowt scary just not a heatwave.

Lots. One or two people doesn't make everyone - those predicting a significantly wet June are the dissidents. CALM CALM

I think it's partially because after last year all bets are off! IIRC by this time last year it was already clear something was wrong with the jetstream's direction and we were starting to watch lows head straight at us with very little input from the continent. as 'summer' continued increasing heat led to more blocking and slow tracking lows and the heavy rains This year it looks more normal, the patterns across the atlantic on the global charts are more typical of the type of weather pattern i was brought up to believe in with the jetstream's effect fairly visible and the lows being disrupted and redirected. that said there does appear to be a wettish patch coming - the so called european monsoon i guess - that looks like it'll pass early next month leaving us with a dryish july. august is more iffy and i wouldn't hazard i guess yet. Or at least that's my not-quite-hopecast i'm amateur and not very scientific so please don't shoot me down in flames & be gentle. is based on watching the global short-range predictions and the daily CFS output on meteociel for the next few months and not trying for anything but 'nicer or nastier' level predictions.

this report from down under says it has already dissipated and isn't threatening to swing back into El Nino mode - which is good or so i get the impression

So fellas how is the optimism now? It seems hard to believe at this point that summer will be a wash-out again, though it seems to still have scope for blandness and some rain. I've seen very little support in the GFS at least for any of last year's nonsense and high pressure mostly dominates. But my very amateur view is limited - what do you see?

Calm calm WoW not every thread is about Glastonbury. Away from that... Can someone here explain to me why everyone is quite so set on this summer being wet? Lately summers have been very dry - until last year hosepipe bans had started to seem a normal part of summer life down here in the south. Is it just that last year was SO bad and 2006 a bit meh that's changed people's minds or is there a greater pattern that's so accepted it's not being talked about? Would last year's extreme wet have swung the long-term models a bit? Doubt it's that simple - but what do those in the know think?

Sorry but lots of me cries nonsense - i believe this concept of things "returning to how it used to be but wetter winters, warmer summers" is a simple fallacy and I'm convinced the models have it wrong - as they have mostly had it wrong this summer The result of global warming, man made or otherwise, is not just more temperature in the atmosphere but more energy in the system as a whole - so yes the result will be more extreme weather but not in some neat and orderly pattern how it used to be. "how it used to be" is a golden age that never existed mostly based on older people's memories of When It Was Properly Cold In Winter and the good summers we all remember. The models this summer, and almost constantly any time, insist on a return to a dramatic version of normality in fantasy island with roughly seasonable but OTT weather. The long range global warming models say the same - I believe them just as much as each other I expect more dramatic swings in how our weather behaves and dramatic events but certainly no return to how things used to be, wetter or not. all i'm sure of is more unexpected weather and surprises, but i'm hoping for this positive upturn to last a few weeks then the pattern to continue into winter to give us some good snowfall I'd be very very very surprised if next summer is anything at all like this summer. Someone refer me back to this post in a year's time and i'll happily eat some form of headwear

you wish in four days time though it could happen, it's just very unlikely. 2-5% chance kinda thing interesting looking at the last ensembles as a few of the runs do hint at a different pattern, but seriously it's not looking like downpours at the moment. showers, occasionally heavy and plenty of dry patches

william learn to read the charts and read them yourself if anyone offers you hope and you don't get sunshine you're gonna be livid. you can see what hope there is - the weather system could pass over more quickly or further north or several other options but they don't look very likely do they so you, and we and everyone else can just watch and hope. noone can turn up and offer you anything other than the next run of the models

lol never stated it as a reason to believe the weather will be better - just a reason not to suddenly believe the weather report five days away is the utter truth and despair

ach don't give up yet - remember all the reports for download etc - was meant to be rain rain rain and they got a suntan as it stands it's drizzle not rain, or one or two bits of proper rain - that'll be ok

hopes remain pinned on the Azores High pushing up and moving the systems away from the southwest before the festival the AH's influence has been increasing the last few runs but there still seems a fair bit of uncertainty as to how much it'll affect things, though generally the model is still not optimistic about it. however this is a situation i've seen it mess up before so i'm not trusting it - there are still several ways we could stay much drier.... but for the moment wet weather gear is a must, but wellies might be going too far. 1mm of rain only penetrates 1cm of soil, the soil is already damp so no problems with surface run off and pooling and it's summer with all the grass and trees sucking the water up and out - it's gotta be quite a bit of rain or rain on hard ground to turn mudbath, so damp ain't so bad

Often the weather way especially when systems are slow moving/stopping like this: round and round it goes where and when it stops nobody knows FWIW there have been many more good runs than bad and the horror runs have gone away, thank the lord for GFSimmodium. weather looks bearable too, the rainfall totals are always overegged in the far future and if we believed them we'd always be in for regular heavy soakings. doesn't happen. it's all down to how quickly and at what angle this low goes over us so just gotta hope

it looks like we're going ot be hoping to dodge a bullet again - only this time the bullet is a patch of showers rather than a downpour personally i'm hopeful. i'm pretty much used to the GFS downgrading the wetness again and again as it gets closer to realtime and i think we're looking at a few showers at worst

Raining here in Tunbridge Wells too - plenty of rumbles of thunder a good 5-10 minutes ago - thought the first few were just trains! Hoping for lots of rain please. Mini downpour