Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

PubliusEnigma

Members
  • Posts

    403
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Banned from Posting, Not happy

Recent Profile Visitors

3,592 profile views

PubliusEnigma's Achievements

Newbie

Newbie (1/14)

  • Conversation Starter

Recent Badges

142

Reputation

  1. Cheers Chris, could be well be a headache in the forecasts. If it tracks more to the west a large swathe of Central england could see snowy and slushy conditions culminating in one hell of a freeze up on Tuesday morning
  2. You've over complicated what I stated I was pointing to the scenarios painted by the GFS, ECM and UKMO. Just those three. One of them is likely to be accurate. They are all very different. One is a very cold and wintry east or North easterly, One is a slack northerly and dry for many. One is a mild and dryish south westerly. If you toss a three sided pyramid it can only land on one side, and it has a 33.3% chance of landing on that side. In the same way, two of the outputs are likely to be quite wrong compared to the eventual outcome. Most modern day output us formulated using Math and percentage variables.
  3. This is going to be one to watch carefully on Monday, as that Low swings in from the north west with a warm sector wrapped around it, depending on the track South east, some areas could see a lot of snow, some in the warm sector may see wet snow or cold rain. A bit of a forecasters night mare. And after dark expect to see a lot of warnings for Ice.
  4. Exactly and if you factor in the GFS mild output, technically the ECM has a one in three chance of being correct, or a 66% chance of being wrong. Lets see what the pub run serves up in an hour or so.
  5. Interesting to catch up on SST's in the North Sea. Currently showing at +7 to +8oC which is a notch down on last year from memory.
  6. Cant remember ever seeing such an enormous difference ECM Freezer of the GFS ?? JMA is nearer to the GFS output and not cold at all with Southerlies over the UK. NOGAPS is better than the ECM ! :o UKMO Offers a third solution with direct northerlies and High pressure close by. A typical cold dry northerly and sunny in most places. Someone is going to get a very large dollop of egg on their face !! NOF
  7. This evening's ECM is beginning to show something a little more seasonal in its output. On Sunday westerly winds will bring a mixture of rain and sleet showers to Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland. A cool breeze in the east and south under brightening skies as cloudy weather moves across into Southern Europe.. Temps of around 5 or 6oC in the south, and similar temps in the north. Isolated wintry showers possible over exposed eastern coasts in the north. A different day on monday with light winds generally and a very light south westerly in SE England. Possibly quite foggy in some central areas and where any fog lingers it could stay quite cold all day. Wintry showers possible in the Far west in Cornwall and SW Wales. Becoming colder on Tuesday with a raw easterly breeze, Rain and sleet showers on eastern coasts turning to hail and soft hail in land with some snow flurries over higher ground, frosty after dark in many areas. Some light snow showers in Kent overnight. ON wednesday winds veer more South Easterly with strengthening winds in the SW. Skies becoming overcast and leaden from the west. Temps around 3oC generally. Some eastern coastal areas will be dry and brighter. Risk of rain and sleet over high ground flirting with parts of the SW. Sleet/hail/snow showers possible in Eastern Scotland. Thursday, will be a cold day, with a moderate easterly breeze in many parts. Overcast in the south with snow at times, however rain or sleet nearer the south coast. The snow band likely to be heaviest in a line from Gloucester east to Cambridge, drier from the midlands northwards although some wintry showers will move inland from the east coast, falling as sleet, soft hail and snow. On Friday winds lighten and turn gentle North westerly as a ridge of High pressure tries to build from the west. A cold start for many. Some sleet and snow showers for North Western parts of Scotland and NW England and N Ireland. Mostly dry and sunny eslewhere. A sharp frost on friday night. On Saturday, a Low pressure moves SSE down the north sea bringing wintry showers, possibly some heavier sleet and snow showers. We will have to watch to see if a warm sector develops within the circulation of the low as this could bring longer outbreaks of rain sleet and snow, with most of the rain on the western flank, and the snow on the eastern flank. Heavy snow showers moving into Northern Scotland behind the snow. So all in all, if the ECM is to be believed over the GFS, a mixed week ahead with wintry showers in some places at times, and even spells of sleet and snow. Plenty of lamp post opportunities later in a weeks time or so.
  8. Will be interesting to hear what Ian F has to say on the GFS / ECM downgrades Maybe this is why the MO outlook has continued to stress great uncertainty in the outlook where any possibility of cooler weather was concerned.
  9. Now this is the best potential for Snow Ive seen all winter.. But as the experts have been say it, disregard it as it cannot be taken seriously. FI Starts at about T216 imo, fairly good agreement up till that point.
  10. To be honest the Met Office own site is saying 8oC on thursday and Friday with outbreaks of rain moving in from the west. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london#?tab=regionalForecast Its not until Monday onwards that they start mentioning the possibility of frost in places.
  11. That chart wouldnt be particularly cold, mabe around 5oC or so in many places ( shame we dont see charts like that in the summer. :o) ) I suppose to be sure of a cold spell, we need to see charts more akin to this set up to bring promise of a winter wonderland.
  12. I agree ! Problem is there is no cold pool.. which was the problem back in December when we had a negatively tilted low. We had prefrontal snow lasting 20 minutes which turned smartly to rain before sunrise. I can understand all the ramping and expectations rising.. But part of me thinks thats on the back of a thoroughly mild, wet and dull protracted spell, that basically anything looks better than what we have. Again. Its 10oC here this evening !! in early Jan. If anyone is expecting anything remotely snowy and wintry, we need evidence of a pool of deep cold to our East or North East.
  13. Only a fool throws caution to the wind... Thats a deep low feeding in albeit SSE;lys theres nothing that cold on the continent, and behind the front we are in a S or SSW flow. So to sum up to many chickens being counted, without any of the eggs being hatched. More runs needed.. T144 and beyond is probably FI if not earlier.
×
×
  • Create New...