Snowyowl9

Sounds about right.. Ah well it was certainly no march 2023..

andy989 Lets us know what your getting in the amber warning.. We were in the yellow warning here.. Ok so this is what we got its a shame as the east wind was really strong but.. Grab my graupels..mixed in with cold rain.. A mini dusting of graupel.. Temp earlier was 2.5c now its 2c..

That mild sector is just shifting too far north each time... This is the most borderline event in living memory..

The4Seasons All these named they certainly didn t have this fuss years ago.. Going through 1982 upto this one there would of been 5 named storms..will check after the later months see how many we would of got..

I remember Atlantic 252 Overall its similar but this one has a better sharper angle stronger undercut to that weaker easterly flow then.. This looks more intense..

andymusic Thanks for the update.. Fascinating.. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2024-02-08&id=8522b3e9-49d4-40ca-8bdc-e9cdf0e876b4 Snow is expected to develop during Thursday morning and become persistent and at times heavy before slowly easing later in the day. As milder air begins to arrive from the south, there is a chance that snow could turn to freezing rain across some higher routes above 200 metres. Across the warning area, 10-15 cm of snow is expected quite widely but some places, particularly those above 200 metres, may see 20-25 cm of snow. Strong and gusty easterly winds may lead to some drifting in places.

Very heavy rain later today almost 1 inch the floods will be back very soon after the snow..after this low now wants hang around.. The modelling has been dire this week on that low..

The arpege would be stunning just for a snow day,I don t like that warm sector coming in on the others..

So we are getting there slowly backtracks and the average GFS run..

Huge contrast in temps,now the GFS has backtracked what a crazy week..

andymusic I think the earth is drunk and wobbling because it seems to be affecting the computer models aswell. I ve never seen a week like it on forecasting before..since countryfile.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGJm2aKulGA&t=30s

So what has the 2020s winters given us.. Plenty what I can see...

If we are looking the worst case scenario that is the GFS we ll still snow..which I did even looked at earlier..the details.. An easterly with some drifting is all I ask for.. Probably because GFS 12 z run is an upgrade in the short term..

CryoraptorA303 This was about as moist as it could ever get as 1 foot of damp turned wet snow was the heaviest I ve yet to see for weight damage way back december 1988.. Others of course were January great blizzards of 1982.. Next another eg but much more powdery and dryer snow to the wet stuff of 88 was february 2007 which was very cold to begin with low ground snow aswell.. Next was the bitterly cold foot of snow 2010/11...Next was the famous blizzards of march 2013 the equivalent of febuary 1985 but truely much more outstanding setup.. Last but no means least was the 1 foot of snow not just on high ground but in shrewsbury dec 2017..

danm The first half of march is more winter than winter..

GFS has certainly gone off one..Caught countryfile weather last night not seen that before they should GFS.. Anyway a slider low is whats mostly shown on all the other models.. Ukmo is definately my favourite of course..ECM would still bring snow just about in the although cold surface undercut would help.. Comparing 0z run to 0z run not much has changed really..

I n between January 1st 1982 and January 2007 we had just 2 events when we had 1 foot of level snow..25 years.. Inbetween February 1st 2007 and December 20th 2017 we had 4 events when we had 1 foot of snow..in just 10 years.. Whats wrong with that picture..

Last time we had 1 foot of snow was....

It was GFS yesterdays 0z showing a foot of snow.. Swapped around now its ECM..Knife edge week coming up..

Charts look very mild buts its cold 2 frosts in a row one air frost last night at just -0.1c.. Cold wind at 4.3c now.. Amazing deep red skies lately..

@Scorcher Not sure how that's relevant to my point at all? It certainly wasn't cold last night. It's pretty normal for higher uppers not to be reflected at the surface in winter. I know that... First bit yes it was cold for bet you wouldn t be standing out all night you d be frozen at 3c. you can t compare this jan cold spell with last december different month,infact this was a colder more potent spell to early january 2021,also to get the ground rock hard after frosts is beating those late 90s winters and most of 00s.. And you like heat we all know that..

A weird little wiggle in the block of highs.. Cold and wet sums up tomorrow in the west..

@Scorcher It was 15.4C here the other day so you could argue the mild weather has been more notable. Not very warm last night under subtropical upper air..3.5c and 5.2c now an inversion..

@Polar Maritime Odd gust touching 70mph here on the Davis, with heavy rain. The wind is howling through the plantation at the back of the house dec 8th.. Thats strange I didn t recall anything for that night here..unlike last night january 22nd..severe gale.. Theres also another day in december that TM had gusts 70 or 80mph more of a NW looks impressive on the chart nothing much here from that either..

Gale force winds in shropshire last night fresh gale at 44mph we had a major blackout for 8 hours from 8.25pm and a severe gale force wind.. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/observations/gcqh76ug7 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/observations/gcms1hjef I would say stronger mean winds although other night was similar huge gusts not groundbreaking..but mean speeds are impressive..