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Typhoon Hunter

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Posts posted by Typhoon Hunter

  1. Three weeks ago I made a successful intercept of the eyewall of typhoon Sepat with Geoff Mackley as it made landfall on central Taiwan. I put together two films which highlight how ferocious conditions are in the eyewall of a typhoon and how the dangers continue long after the wind has died down. The floods in part 2 are the most spectacular event I've ever witnessed:

    Part 1 -

    Part 2 -

  2. Hi guys.

    I'm in position!!! Got myself a 4th floor room in a sturdy, concrete constructed hotel in Hoi An (about 15.7 degrees north) with internet! The weather is pretty benign at the moment but judging by latest sat image there is serious mayhem to come. Here's latest pic from JTWC:

    wp1806samsop3.jpg

    There are many tourists here who have no clue of what is about to happen. However I just passed local high school and it's crammed with people who've been evacuated from the coast. JTWC going for landfall winds of 105kts. Will be able to update here as long as the power lasts!

  3. Hello!

    Just checked the latest updates. Latest JTWC track has Xangsane peaking at 125kts before making landfall with winds of around 115kts. However I think JTWC track will be adjusted northward in the next update. They have not taken into account a northward jog which both the Taiwanese and JMA have. Consequently Taiwanese and JMA (85kts) are going for direct hit in Danang area. Current landfall times as as follows:

    JTWC 6am local, CWB 8am local, JMA 1pm local. What is great at the moment is they all seems to be going for daylight landfall on Sunday, couldn't be better.

    I've just read a report that Danang city may be evacuated, this could pose problems getting there and affect my wallet...may have to bribe my way through checkpoints!

    Cheers,

    James.

  4. Thanks Rusty, I'm just praying that my flight tomorrow from Hanoi to Hue isn't cancelled....from latest update I should be ok.

    This time in 24hrs I'll be in Vietnam. From now on I'll be using JTWC updates since they are most useful for getting to the best place. The latest update is insane, as it stands now they reckon it'll have winds of 120kts gusting to 145kts just before landfall. This will devestate the region and I hope the Vietnamese government is doing all it can to protect the most vulnerable people (poor coastal dwellers.)

    Here's the latest tracking chart from JTWC:

    warning15ah6.gif

    I'll post next update after the 06z comes out.

  5. I have made it to Bangkok and managed to escape the mayhem of the new airport...it is its first day of fully operating! I've managed to get my passport to the visa service, will be ready tomorrow at 4pm. And I've spent a small fortune on plane tickets to Hue in central Vietnam...I arrive on Saturday 0630z, should just arrive in time. A few more hurdles cleared!

    Xangsane has just about crossed the Phillipines and is entering the South China Sea. JMA currently have winds at 65kts and JTWC at 105kts. Forecast to re-intensify in the SCS. Here's the latest JTWC chart, it show Da Nang (a bout 25 miles south of Hue) getting a direct hit:

    warning12ql0.gif

    More updates to come later!

  6. Mods I hope you don't mind this in the general forum, the Hurricane Forum is very quiet and thought this might generate a bit more interest here!

    Typhoon Xangsane has done the remarkable and bombed into a very very strong typhoon in the space of 12hrs. It's currrently making landfall on the east coast of the Phillipines with sustainded 1 min winds of 115kts (JTWC) and 10 min winds of 90kts. 12 hours ago the Phillipines were expecting a tropical storm to make landfall now they have to deal with a monster!

    It's obviously far too late to get to the Phillipines, however Xangsane is currently forecast to re-strengthen in the South China Sea and head towards Vietnam. The latest JTWC track (very useful for intercepting storms) has Xangsane making landfall in central Vietnam with 115kt sustained winds. Therefore I'm going to try to intercept it.

    However I have many hurdles to face....first of all the 18z (becomes available at 4.30am my time) update. If this still shows a similar picture I'll head to Shanghai airport and try and get on the first plane to Bangkok provided it's not full. Then I have to get an express visa for Vietnam (provided what the people on the phone in Thailand told me is correct!) Then I'll book my tickets to Vietnam and try and get into the best position!! This is of course assuming all the while the storm is still worth intercepting!

    I'll post as many updates as I can here.

    Here's the latest JTWC tracking chart:

    warning8ln9.gif

    And here's the latest sat image of Xangsane making landfall in Phillipines:

    viswarning71vp0.jpg

  7. Wow....Xangsane has exploded and become a typhoon before making landfall on the Phillipines. JMA have winds at 70kts, here's their latest advisory:

    Issued at 03:00 UTC 27 Sep 2006

    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

    NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) UPGRADED FROM STS

    ANALYSIS

    PSTN 270300UTC 12.7N 125.1E GOOD

    MOVE WNW 09KT

    PRES 960HPA

    MXWD 070KT

    50KT 70NM

    30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST

    FORECAST

    24HF 280300UTC 14.0N 122.5E 80NM 70%

    MOVE WNW 07KT

    PRES 955HPA

    MXWD 075KT

    45HF 290000UTC 14.9N 119.3E 150NM 70%

    MOVE WNW 09KT

    PRES 960HPA

    MXWD 070KT

    69HF 300000UTC 15.6N 115.3E 220NM 70%

    MOVE W 09KT

    PRES 955HPA

    MXWD 075KT

    The latest JTWC tracking chart has Xangsane crossing the Phillipines and strengthening into a howler in the South China Sea. Here's their latest chart:

    warning7cj4.gif

    And here's the latest vis satellite, courtesy of NRL Monterey TC Homepage. As you can see the eye is very clear!

    viswarning7dt0.jpg

  8. A new tropical storm has formed in the NW Pacific off the coast of the Phillipines. This is T0615 and has been assigned the name Xangsane (no idea how to pronounce that - I think Laos may have provided it.) Here's the latest JMA advisory:

    T0615 (XANGSANE)

    Issued at 03:00 UTC 26 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

    NAME TS 0615 XANGSANE (0615)

    ANALYSIS

    PSTN 260300UTC 11.9N 127.3E FAIR

    MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

    PRES 1000HPA

    MXWD 035KT

    30KT 120NM

    FORECAST

    24HF 270300UTC 13.2N 125.7E 80NM 70%

    MOVE WNW SLOWLY

    PRES 998HPA

    MXWD 035KT

    45HF 280000UTC 14.4N 124.3E 150NM 70%

    MOVE WNW SLOWLY

    PRES 992HPA

    MXWD 045KT

    Looking quite tidy on latest vis saetllite (courtesy of NRL Monterey TC Homepage):

    viswarning3aea6.jpg

    The latest ECMWF chart has this exploding once it enters the South China Sea. I'll very very interested to see what happens.

  9. Holy crap, JMA have Yagi up to 110kts which is exceptionaly strong for them. Here's their latest:

    Issued at 21:00 UTC 21 Sep 2006

    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

    NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614)

    ANALYSIS

    PSTN 212100UTC 23.2N 144.2E GOOD

    MOVE NW 16KT

    PRES 910HPA

    MXWD 110KT

    50KT 90NM

    30KT 180NM

    FORECAST

    24HF 222100UTC 27.6N 141.3E 80NM 70%

    MOVE NNW 12KT

    PRES 920HPA

    MXWD 100KT

    45HF 231800UTC 31.6N 143.2E 160NM 70%

    MOVE N 12KT

    PRES 935HPA

    MXWD 090KT

    69HF 241800UTC 36.6N 149.0E 290NM 70%

    MOVE NE 17KT

    PRES 960HPA

    MXWD 075KT

  10. Typhoon Yagi has been intensifying steadily and is now very powerful. JMA have it at 90kts and JTWC at 115kts. Here's the latest JMA advisory:

    Issued at 06:00 UTC 20 Sep 2006

    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

    NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614)

    ANALYSIS

    PSTN 200600UTC 19.6N 154.1E GOOD

    MOVE W 14KT

    PRES 940HPA

    MXWD 090KT

    50KT 80NM

    30KT 170NM

    FORECAST

    24HF 210600UTC 20.0N 147.8E 80NM 70%

    MOVE W 14KT

    PRES 930HPA

    MXWD 095KT

    48HF 220600UTC 23.2N 142.3E 150NM 70%

    MOVE WNW 15KT

    PRES 930HPA

    MXWD 095KT

    72HF 230600UTC 27.6N 140.2E 220NM 70%

    MOVE NNW 11KT

    PRES 940HPA

    MXWD 090KT

    The latest satellite image is beautiful, courtesy of NRL Monterey TC page:

    viswarning13zk5.jpg

  11. Yagi has now been upgraded to a typhoon. Here's the latest JMA advisory and track:

    Issued at 03:00 UTC 19 Sep 2006

    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

    NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614)

    ANALYSIS

    PSTN 190300UTC 20.1N 158.8E GOOD

    MOVE W SLOWLY

    PRES 970HPA

    MXWD 065KT

    50KT 55NM

    30KT 160NM

    FORECAST

    24HF 200300UTC 20.1N 155.5E 80NM 70%

    MOVE W 07KT

    PRES 955HPA

    MXWD 075KT

    45HF 210000UTC 20.4N 149.5E 150NM 70%

    MOVE W 14KT

    PRES 950HPA

    MXWD 080KT

    69HF 220000UTC 24.0N 143.2E 270NM 70%

    MOVE WNW 17KT

    PRES 950HPA

    MXWD 080KT

    jmawarning9ba2.png

    Even though Yagi's just been upgraded the eye is clearly visible on latest sat image. (Courtesy of NRL Monterey TC Homepage.)

    viswarning9ot9.jpg

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